On Being Right
etc.
I was like "man this is expensive and also I don't really get it".
The market was like LOL.
First: its yield provides value. This can be true whether or not you think the things _giving_ the yield in the first place do.
Second: @AndreCronjeTech is a baller.
Is it *really* making money vs being right?
Sometimes markets are silly. But also sometimes if you think the money-making direction was wrong, it's just because you don't realize why it's right.
I didn't want to make money, I wanted to be right. And in the end that led me to also being wrong.
But I've gained a lot of respect for "stupid" methods.
During the early days of SRM some people were like "idk I don't see it". Others were like "idk I don't see it, but probably soon I will."
Soon everyone did.
That was _mine_.
And I think that even _I_ didn't get this one right. Not clearly, at least.
Ask yourself: in a month, do you think you will have made money if you followed that advice?
And here there are plausible theories!
But also the part of me that believes those theories is already wrong by a LOT over the last few weeks.
Wait. What does it *mean* to be right?
Because, many years ago, we all agreed that BTC was the real deal, and so it is.
Why did Google outperform Yahoo so much over the last decades? Because, as it turns out, it fucking delivered.
I guess they believed in me more than I did.
And when that happened I remembered FTX, and FTT, and the same people believing in us more than we did.
I guess they were right back then.
I knew that scope, and they didn't! But they guessed it, and guessed it better than my month-old cached value.
I had ~10 long-term partnerships to shoot for over the next years.
Already ~5 of them are underway.
And now there are ~100 more on the wishlist, many way larger than the first 10.
They seem _too_ big. Which means they'll only work if we do everything we can for them.
So let's get to it.
But I guess what I have to say to that is: sure, get short; I can facilitate that. Let's check in a few months, and see who made money.
And if you _wouldn't_ do that: do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right?
Those will be coming down soon. But for today, they'll be coming down more: we'll rebate down to 8bps taker fees via airdrops tomorrow.