potentially very unpleasant surprises from COVID19
(this is the gist of a couple of blog posts that I am writing. too much to catch up with the market right now, so it may take a few more days before they come out)
Here is a preview:
(this is the gist of a couple of blog posts that I am writing. too much to catch up with the market right now, so it may take a few more days before they come out)
Here is a preview:
1. no free ride for anti-vaxxers from herd immunity.
85% chance that covid19 vaccines only protect vaccinated people from getting severe COVID.
full-on re-opening + quick decay of COVID antibodies -> we will soon have tons of people spreading tons of virus.
85% chance that covid19 vaccines only protect vaccinated people from getting severe COVID.
full-on re-opening + quick decay of COVID antibodies -> we will soon have tons of people spreading tons of virus.
People who get the vaccine will have sniffles repeatedly (once every 3-4 months maybe)
Anti-vaxxers... well... natural-selection time for your genotype I am afraid.
Anti-vaxxers... well... natural-selection time for your genotype I am afraid.
2. 65+ people not out of the woods.
with their thymus function diminished via aging, neither helper T-cell or killer t-cell is reliable in dealing with a re-infection. and potential ADE risk for the elderly.
there are mitigation steps. but no free rides from herd immunity
with their thymus function diminished via aging, neither helper T-cell or killer t-cell is reliable in dealing with a re-infection. and potential ADE risk for the elderly.
there are mitigation steps. but no free rides from herd immunity
The bright side: for people < 60 year old, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Get a vaccine in a few months and life can go back to normal.
Will elaborate these points in details by next weekend.
Will elaborate these points in details by next weekend.
