Due to COVID, banks are not lending much to create more M2. so the main driver of M2 growth (which in turns drives equity, precious metals, inflation etc) are two-pronged:
A. USG deficit spending
B. Mortgage origination + cash-out refi
A. USG deficit spending
B. Mortgage origination + cash-out refi
A is pre-programmed in budget appropriation at $40bn/ week on the average
B is semi-guaranteed by the Fed at a $20Bn/week average pace.
Expect this situation to continue until COVID19 crisis is resolved with vaccines.
B is semi-guaranteed by the Fed at a $20Bn/week average pace.
Expect this situation to continue until COVID19 crisis is resolved with vaccines.
Considering publishing the forecast model (daily change 2 months into the future) at a reasonable cost.
