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I am fighting myself not to try the "Vanity Trade" of picking a top in the equity market, if even for a correction. But the potential megaphone top and Weekly DeMark is rather alluring...
As is the longest weekly RSI divergence in SPX history (as far as I can tell)...longer and larger than 1997 to 2000.
But, if there is going to be a time and a place for a correction, this has as good an odds anything thus far. I haven't tried shorting the market overall since March (although I am short banks, GE and AT&T).

Let's see. I'm tempted but no one needs to pick a top except your ego.
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
I wrote a very long GMI Monthly this weekend (143 pages, 15,500 words). The core focus was this month on crypto, which I think its the worlds best trade and of which Im irresponsibly long.

Here are a couple of pages with some top-down thoughts.. #Bitcoin
I hope it gives you some thought but as ever it's too basic for many of you and too controversial for others! I just do my best to educate.

Thanks @coloradotravis for brainstorming the collateral idea and thanks Delphi Digital for the DeFi article.
Read 4 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
It's Friday night on FinTwit, so it's booze night...

It's been a while since my rum thread. Time to talk wine!

Stories of bond villains, globalization and the world's most underpriced fine wine awaits (along with affordable rec's too)
Let's start this story with someone called Robert Parker, a newsletter writer back in the late 1970's and early 1980's.

When we understand Parker, you eventually get to why my favorite wines are dramatically underpriced.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Pa…
Parker had a paid newsletter called The Wine Advocate and was a small time player until, similar to financial newsletters, he got it really right once, back in 1982, when he rated the Bordeaux vintage higher than anyone on first tasting.
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
I know bitcoin and gold are selling off right now and may go further but with Powell today, it tells you they have no desire to raise rates and a skewed desire to print more. That plays to the inherent upside skew in both assets.

I think they both rise over time in inflation 1/
2/ or deflation. Most people don't understand the latter but is simply put, Powell has shown that there is ZERO tolerance for deflation so they will do ANYTHING to stop it, and that is good for the two hardest assets - Gold and Bitcoin. Powell WANTS inflation.
I don't think he gets true demand push inflation but he will get fiat devaluation, in conjunction with the other central banks all on the same mission.

Overall, I think #Bitcoin outperforms gold. Gold can go up 2x or 3x or even 5x while bitcoin can go up 50x or even 100x.
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