(1/6)
With #Haishen forecast to be a large, intense typhoon at landfall, it may be time to review the strongest typhoons landing over Japan (excluding the Ryukyus).
The strongest one since 1951 was Nancy in 1961, with a central pressure of 925mb when it landed over Muroto.
With #Haishen forecast to be a large, intense typhoon at landfall, it may be time to review the strongest typhoons landing over Japan (excluding the Ryukyus).
The strongest one since 1951 was Nancy in 1961, with a central pressure of 925mb when it landed over Muroto.
(2/6)
The strongest one since WWII actually landed soon after the war ended - the Makurazaki Typhoon in 1945 (also known as Ida) had a recorded pressure of 916.1mb at landfall.
Japan has not seen ANY landfalling typhoon in the 930mb range since Typhoon Yancy in 1993.
The strongest one since WWII actually landed soon after the war ended - the Makurazaki Typhoon in 1945 (also known as Ida) had a recorded pressure of 916.1mb at landfall.
Japan has not seen ANY landfalling typhoon in the 930mb range since Typhoon Yancy in 1993.
(3/6)
JMA has set up an emergency warning system since 2013 for extreme weather events that occur once a few decades. For typhoons, the criteria are very strict - 930mb for the ones landing over the main Japanese islands and 910mb for those passing over the Ryukyus.
JMA has set up an emergency warning system since 2013 for extreme weather events that occur once a few decades. For typhoons, the criteria are very strict - 930mb for the ones landing over the main Japanese islands and 910mb for those passing over the Ryukyus.
(4/6)
JMA has only issued emergency typhoon warnings twice, once for Neoguri in 2014 and the other time for Chaba in 2016. Both are typhoons passing over the Ryukyus, but the former turned out to be weaker than expected and the latter's eyewall simply missed Kumejima.
JMA has only issued emergency typhoon warnings twice, once for Neoguri in 2014 and the other time for Chaba in 2016. Both are typhoons passing over the Ryukyus, but the former turned out to be weaker than expected and the latter's eyewall simply missed Kumejima.
(5/6)
It must be noted that the current forecast has significant uncertainty, and global models are notorious for their high bias for mid-latitude typhoons. JMA's forecast peak is a more conservative 940mb/90kt, but further strengthening may occur before landfall.
It must be noted that the current forecast has significant uncertainty, and global models are notorious for their high bias for mid-latitude typhoons. JMA's forecast peak is a more conservative 940mb/90kt, but further strengthening may occur before landfall.
(6/6)
Even if global model solutions do not fully materialise, there is still significant chance for Haishen to become one of the strongest typhoons landing over Japan since the 1990s, if not since 1961.
Final thought: Structural dynamics will be the key to landfall intensity.
Even if global model solutions do not fully materialise, there is still significant chance for Haishen to become one of the strongest typhoons landing over Japan since the 1990s, if not since 1961.
Final thought: Structural dynamics will be the key to landfall intensity.
That said, to become an intense typhoon landing over Japan, Haishen (obviously) needs to land over Japan. But both GFS and EC have been shifting westward, with the former and its ensemble now showing a direct hit to (again) South Korea instead. Still large uncertainty here.
