1. I could be wrong, but having grown up in the Midwest suburbs, I suspect the media narrative about Trump decisively benefitting from Kenosha and Portland is wrong. Trump's strategy is to use racial division and racism to scare Midwestern suburbanites. That could backfire.
2. Many Midwestern suburbs (say, the Minnesota 3rd District) are wealthy but largely socially progressive. The GOP often wins those districts with soft conservatism (low taxes, small government, but not with overt racism or bigotry). In 2018, Republicans lost many such districts.
3. The mistake Trump (and some in the press) are making is to believe that Midwestern suburbs are full of latent racists just waiting for a politician to activate it Willie Horton style. Some of those voters exist, sure. But this isn't 1988. And in 2020, I think it'll backfire.
4. Yes, some voters respond to racism. Most of them are in Trump's base. But a lot of suburban voters loathe the notion that Trump sees them as bigots like himself. Just like his tweets addressing "Suburban Housewives" backfired with women, so too could his racist pandering.
5. For the suburban Midwest demographic, Biden is the least scary kind of politician during a crisis. He was in the White House for 8 years. They don't see him as a radical who sympathizes with violence. So I could be wrong, but I don't think the current narrative is correct.
