The Pentagon’s 2020 report on Chinese military affairs is out. Here is the analysis by @mattkorda and yours truly:
The Pentagon’s 2020 China Report
fas.org/blogs/security…
The Pentagon’s 2020 China Report
fas.org/blogs/security…
@mattkorda One of the most surprising bits is the statement that "China probably maintains an operational nuclear warhead stockpile in the low-200s.” That’s less than the 290 we had at the end of 2019 (the data point for the DOD report). Possible reason: the term “operational."
Another surprise is 200 DF-26 IRBMs. Thast’s up from 80 last year! How is that even possible? Doesn’t fit the visible force structure. @dex_eve will have more to say about that.
Interesting to see that DOD report uses our discovery of silo construction at Jilantai training area: “first...identified in fall 2019 by a non-governmental organization’s commercial imagery…” fas.org/blogs/security…
DOD says it shows China is moving to Launch-On-Warning. Hmm
DOD says it shows China is moving to Launch-On-Warning. Hmm
Another interesting piece: the DF-5B can carry up to 5 MIRVs. That’s 2 more than the 3 we have estimated and is another reaon it’s difficult to square the Chinese arsenal with “low-200s” warheads.
Perhaps the most surprising about the “low-200s” warhead estimate is that it takes some of the wind out of the sail of the Trump administration’s push to get China into nuclear arms control. It means China has fewer warheads than France!
