Thread by @nukestrat

The Pentagon has published the Nuclear Matters Handbook 2020 acq.osd.mil/ncbdp/nm/nmhb/…

An extraordinary resource. Kudos for continuing this document! @DeptofDefense

@DeptofDefense Unlike previous versions, the 2020 Nuclear Matters Handbook is healy colored by Trump's Nuclear Posture Review. Among other things, the Handbook declares the era of "sustainment of Cold War legacy deterrent in the absence of underground nuclear testing” to be over.

@DeptofDefense Also significant changes in modernization programs for the United States compared with the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.

Also curious omissions/additions to Russia and China.

@DeptofDefense Also note that “modernization” only counts new delivery systems but ignores modernizations done to existing systems as part of life-extension programs.

@DeptofDefense And the LRSO sure looks a lot like the JASSM (of cours, it could potentially just be for illustrative purposes at this stage).

@DeptofDefense Another illustration that mischaracterizes aging of delivery vehicles. Yes, they age and at some point must be replaced, but illustration gives false impression that nothing has been done in between to maintain and upgrade them.

@DeptofDefense Also interesting “near future” arsenal does not contain B83-1 or B61-11 gravity bombs, as decided by Obama administration. So why did 2018 Nuclear Posture Review decide to keep B83-1 longer than planned?

Plus US F-16s are no longer listed as nuclear-capable. Oversight?

@DeptofDefense The Nuclear Matters Handbook identifies a new “future air-delivered warhead" intended to replace not only B61-12 but also the warhead on the LRSO. acq.osd.mil/ncbdp/nm/nmhb/…

A B61-13 has been hinted but W80-4 replacement is new.

@DeptofDefense Handbook also has (yet another version of the) chart of warheads over time showing retired and currently stockpiled.

But, no, the B61-10 and W84 are not in the current stockpile but have been retired.