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Sahil Kapur Profile picture
@sahilkapur
Sep 2, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
NEW POLLS OUT TODAY

Quinnipiac: Biden 52%, Trump 42%
(+10)

USAT/Suffolk: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
(+7)

Reuters/Ipsos: Biden 47%, Trump 40%
(+7)

Grinnell/Selzer: Biden 49%, Trump 41%
(+8)

Economist/YouGov: Biden 51%, Trump 40%
(+11)
(Reposted an earlier tweet to fix the YouGov margin as +11, not +9. My #math mistake)
Trump's share of the vote in head-to-heads versus Biden continues to track closely with his job approval rating.

There don't seem to be many "well I disapprove of him but I dislike his Democratic opponent more" voters.

In 2016, voters who disliked both broke for Trump.

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More from @sahilkapur

Sahil Kapur Profile picture
Apr 3
NEW: Top Democrats won’t join calls for Sotomayor to retire.

But in interviews with NBC, they’re voicing fears of a RBG redux.

“We should learn a lesson. And it’s not like there’s any mystery here about what the lesson should be.”

w/ @lawrencehurley:

nbcnews.com/politics/supre…
Democrats remain haunted by what happened to Ginsburg. Rewind to 2014: She was 81, Obama was president, Dems had 55 Senate seats; liberals called on her to retire. She rejected them. And died in 2020, got replaced by Trump pick A.C. Barrett—the 6-3 SCOTUS. nbcnews.com/politics/supre…
BLUMENTHAL wants Sotomayor to “weigh the competing factors.”

“The old saying — graveyards are full of indispensable people, ourselves in this body included.”

Sen. WHITEHOUSE warns of a “full MAGA court” if it goes to 7-2.

“Certainly I think if Justice Ginsburg had it to do over again, she might have rethought her confidence in her own health.”

nbcnews.com/politics/supre…
Read 4 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
Mar 20
NEW: Republican Study Committee releases a sweeping budget plan

RSC chair is HERN; 170+ members incl Speaker and his full leadership team.

Highlights:

• Raises Social Security retirement age for future retirees
• Converts Medicare to "premium support" a la Paul Ryan plan 
• Rolls back ACA
• Endorses Life At Conception Act

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
On Social Security, RSC budget endorses "modest adjustments to the retirement age for future retirees to account for increases in life expectancy." Calls for lowering benefits for the highest-earning beneficiaries. No changes for current/imminent retirees. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
New RSC budget is a glimpse into how Republicans will seek to govern if they win power in 2024. It puts Trump in an awkward spot after he has been all over the map on what to do about Social Security and Medicare. One goal he and RSC agree on: undo ACA.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 5 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
Feb 7
NEW: McConnell clinched a major border-aid deal and encouraged Republicans to support it.

Just 4 voted yes.

McConnell's once-formidable influence w/ Senate GOP is waning, and detractors are growing, as it becomes Trumpier—like House GOP.

w/ @frankthorp: nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Ron Johnson: "How did we get ourselves in a situation where we’re being blamed for Biden's open border policy? How could that be possible? The answer is McConnell made that possible."

McConnell notes that his critics were the ones demanding a border bill. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Chris Murphy on McConnell: “He didn't just bless the deal. He wrote the deal."

His team "were in the room every single day."

"But it’s really worrying that a deal that was written and endorsed by the minority leader gets four votes from his caucus."

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 4 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
Jan 22
NEW —> ‘It’s embarrassing’: Republicans worry they have no achievements to run on in 2024

“We have nothing. In my opinion, we have nothing to go out there and campaign on,” says one House GOP lawmaker.

He’s not alone.

nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
CHIP ROY: "I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing — one! — that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!"

Rs conveyed displeasure.

He's unimpressed.

It "does not matter" who's in majority, he said. "We keep doing the same stupid stuff."

nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
"It would be really nice if they could hang their hat on some accomplishment," says GOP Sen. Cramer, calling record "damn thin."

"The whole ‘burden of governing’ thing I was hopeful would weigh heavily enough on them to get serious hasn’t worked so far."

nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
Read 4 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
Oct 18, 2023
The Senate just unanimously agreed to fill committee slots vacated by Dianne Feinstein. Perhaps most significant: @LaphonzaB fills the empty Judiciary Committee slot and Democrats regain their majority on a key panel. Biden’s judicial nominees can now move without GOP support.
As we had been reporting for months, Republicans didn’t block Dems from filling the Judiciary Cmte seat. There were months of fabricated claims, amplified by figures like @HillaryClinton & @SenStabenow, that Rs would leave that seat open permanently if Feinstein vacated it. Nope.
Many were conflating two different things. What Republicans objected to was a *temporary* swap on one panel while Feinstein was still a senator. They didn’t threaten to permanently keep committee seats open if she left the Senate; unlikely that could’ve succeeded if they tried.
Read 4 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
Oct 14, 2023
NEW: Democrats are holding firm and refusing to help Republicans out of House speaker mess

They're still behind Jeffries.

No serious talks of a coalition speaker.

Dem leaders are trashing Jim Jordan as an "insurrectionist," election denier, extremist.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Democratic @WhipKClark on Jordan: "Every Republican who cast their vote for him is siding with an insurrectionist against our democracy."

Dems dropping clues on how they will try to tie every GOP lawmaker to Jordan's brand of politics.

w/ @JulesJester: nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
👀 @TedLieu tells me that a Speaker Jim Jordan could mean the House refuses to certify a potential Biden re-election win in 2024. “He will absolutely do everything he can to not certify a Biden victory. That’s what he did before.” nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Read 4 tweets

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