Thread by @gianlucac1

ON COVID19 DATA IN ITALY: WE HAVE MORE THAN ONE ISSUE 3d

Looking at data coming out from regional health system like Veneto

here infogram.com/1plr7x29w20vrv…

we see on the 1st of August Veneto had
150 Hopitalised Patients
13 ICU
TOT 163

1/n

Conversely if we look at the reports of @dpc
or @istsupsan Veneto on the 1st of Aug has

69 Hopsitalised Patients
9 ICU patients
Tot 78

Where is this coming from?

Case definition: Recovered is a patient with 2 consecutive negative PCR

2/n

I dont want to enter a discussion on case definitions, although it is clear that the existence of "long Covid" damages questions the "recovered" one.

Lets talk about hospitals

The current wave looks manageable in terms of hospital resources stress

3/n

Flu season is approaching. Social distancing is reducing Flu infections in Australia and therefore there is reason for being optimistic.

But we all know that during the Flu season some departments might experience pressure

4/n

As shown above in Veneto there are

ONLY 78 Covid19 patients according to case definition

BUT REAL 163 patients Covid or Ex Covid Due to case definition

Bear in mind: a patient that goes C19 negative while in ICU, even if still in ICU, is out of C19 stats

5/n

With this great disparity (78 vs 163) the Data Cacophony is not worrying if the epidemy has low numbers

But makes any speculation on Covid19 data completely useless when assessing bottlenecks
6/6
fin
Regards

@ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW @ciro @alexvespi @mtizzoni HT @OpencovidM

@AurelianoStingi @Doom3Gloom @ASampierdarena @OGiannino @AttilioGeroni @gloquenzi @MariangelaPira @PaoloBricco @udogumpel

@threadreaderapp please unroll