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Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
@charles_gaba
Sep 4, 2020 • 20 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
📣 I've raised more than $1 MILLION to help #FlipTheSenate so far, which is great...but we also need to focus on other down-ballot races as well... 1/
secure.actblue.com/donate/retakes…
I'm hoping to raise at least $100,000 to #KeepTheHouseBlue. Donate to Democrats in these swing districts today! 2/ secure.actblue.com/donate/keepthe…
I'm hoping to raise at least $120,000 to #ExpandTheBlueHouse. Donate to Democrats looking to flip *these* swing seats today! 3/
secure.actblue.com/donate/expandt…
I'm hoping to raise at least $25,000 to help Dems #CompeteEverywhere. Donate to candidates looking to flip these tough House seats today: 4/ secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
I'm hoping to raise at least $10,000 to make sure that we #LeaveNoDemBehind. Donate to Democrats running in these deep red districts today: 5/
secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
I'm also hoping to raise at least $10,000 to elect #MoreDemExecs! The pandemic, the lawsuit to strike down the #ACA and GOP attacks on election integrity remind us how important Governors, Attorneys General and Secretaries of State are! Donate today: 6/ secure.actblue.com/donate/gov_ag_…
Don't forget the STATE LEGISLATURES! Remember, you get more bang for your buck by donating to these because the campaigns often cost a small fraction of a statewide or federal race.

Help me raise $10,000 to #FlipAZBlue! 7/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
FLORIDA: Help me raise at least $10,000 to #FlipFLBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 8/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
GEORGIA: Help me raise at least $15,000 to #FlipGABlue. Donate to these candidates today! 8/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
IOWA: Help me raise at least $5,000 to #FlipIABlue. Donate to these candidates today! 8/
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipiab…
MICHIGAN: Help me raise at least $35,000 to #FlipMIBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 9/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
MINNESOTA: Help me raise at least $5,000 to #FlipMNBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 10/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
NORTH CAROLINA: Help me raise at least $10,000 to #FlipNCBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 11/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
OHIO: Help me raise at least $10,000 to #FlipOHBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 12/
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipohb…
PENNSYLVANIA: Help me raise at least $10,000 to #FlipPABlue. Donate to these candidates today! 13/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
SOUTH CAROLINA: Help me raise at least $5,000 to #FlipSCBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 14/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
TEXAS: Help me raise at least $40,000 to #FlipTXBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 15/
secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewav…
WEST VIRGINIA (yes, West Virginia): Help me raise at least $1,000 to #FlipWVBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 16/
secure.actblue.com/donate/flipwvb…
WISCONSIN: Help me raise at least $20,000 to #FlipWIBlue. Donate to these candidates today! 17/ secure.actblue.com/donate/makewib…
Which state legislature should I start raising money to flip next?

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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