Thread by @jpr007

SOFTBANK SPENDS BIG IN U.S. OPTIONS MARKET

SoftBank is the “Nasdaq whale” that has bought billions of dollars’ worth of US equity derivatives in a move that stoked the fevered rally in big tech stocks before a sharp pullback on Thursday

The Japanese conglomerate has been buying options in tech stocks during the past month in huge amounts, contributing to the largest trading volumes in contracts
linked to individual companies in at least 10 years, people said

One banker described it as a “dangerous” bet

The aggressive move into the options market marks a new chapter for the investment powerhouse, which in recent years has made huge bets on privately held technology
start-ups through its $100bn Vision Fund

After the coronavirus market tumult hit those bets hard, the company established an asset management unit for public
investments using capital contributed by its founder Masayoshi Son

Now it has also made a splash in trading derivatives linked to some of those new investments, which has shocked market veterans

“These are some of the biggest trades I’ve seen in 20 years of doing this,” said one derivatives-focused US hedge fund
manager

“The flow is huge”

The surge in purchases of call options — which give the user the right to buy a stock at a pre-agreed price — has been the talk of Wall Street in recent weeks, as the sheer size of the trades appears to have exacerbated a “melt-up” in many big technology stocks over the summer

Shares in Tesla soared +26% in under a week to 1 September while Amazon and Google parent Alphabet gained about +9 %

One person familiar with SoftBank’s trades said it was “gobbling up” options on a scale that was even making some people within the organisation nervous

“People are caught with their pants down, massively short. This can continue. The whale is still hungry”

SoftBank declined to comment

The options boom means that the US stock market remains vulnerable to further bursts of volatility, according to Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura

“The Street is still very much in a dangerous space, and that flow is still out there,” he said in a note on Friday, adding that this leaves the market open to swings higher or lower

The overall nominal value of calls traded on individual US stocks has averaged $335 billion a day over the past two weeks, according to Goldman Sachs

That is more than triple the rolling average in 2017 through 2019

The retail trading boom has played a big part of the frenzy, but investors say the size of many recent option purchases are far too big to be retail-driven

Unusually, single-stock call trading volumes have surged beyond the average daily volumes of calls on the broader US stock market . . .

. . . and are almost as high as the level of
trading in index puts — which give the buyer the right to sell at a pre-set price and act as a popular form of insurance against stocks falling

The size and aggressiveness of the mysterious call buyer, coupled with the summer trading lull, has been a major factor in not only the buoyant performance of many big
tech names but also in the broader US stock market, according to Mr McElligott

This week he warned that dynamics around options meant the heavy purchases forced banks on the other side of the trades to hedge themselves by buying stocks, in a “classic ‘tail wags the dog’ feedback loop”

This also helped explain the unusual sight of the US stock market climbing in tandem with the Vix index — often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — and meant that
equities were fragile and vulnerable to the kind of sudden setback that erupted on Thursday

“The equity volatility complex is acting ‘broken’ and indicative that something’s gotta give’,” Mr McElligott warned in a note shortly before the Nasdaq fell -5%

One banker familiar with the latest options trading activity said Thursday’s market pullback would have been painful for SoftBank, but he expected the buying to resume

A larger and longer-lasting stock-market decline would be more damaging for this strategy, and would probably involve rapid declines, he added

The options buying comes alongside $10bn in public investments SoftBank is targeting through its new asset management arm

According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission last month, SoftBank has bought stakes of nearly $2bn in Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla . . .

. . . and these investments that are partially funded by cash from its $41bn asset sale programme that was triggered by a collapse in its share price during the Covid-19 market turmoil