New article in journal published by Cambridge Univ Press says that testimony to House Oversight Committee in March 2020 mixed up case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) for influenza, resulting in major error. (I report this w/o parsing)
cambridge.org/core/services/…
cambridge.org/core/services/…
2/ author Ronald Brown (of University of Waterloo in Ontario) said that House Committee was told that estimated mortality was 10 times higher than seasonal influenza. This was prime argument for lockdown.
3/ Brown observed that New England Journal article, just prior to House testimony, had (incorrectly) said that CFR for seasonal influenza was 0.1% whereas 0.1% is actually the value for IFR (WHO).
4/ Brown observed that CFR and IFR have different definitions in epidemiology and gives a lengthy exposition.
5/ Brown curiously didn't identify the person who, according to Brown, gave the wrong benchmark information on fatality rates for seasonal influenza to Congress, linking to CSPAN in his footnotes.
6/ the expert who, according to Brown, made the 10x error in testimony to Congress is, by now, well known to all of us. It was, needless to say, Anthony Fauci.
7/ I urge readers to read original article. I am not personally familiar with definitional distinctions emphasized by Brown and haven't verified his claims. Brown is at reputable university and journal is by reputable publisher (Cambridge Univ).
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
8/ a comment on CFR and/or IFR as a concept: there was large number of cases among both residents and staff in long-term care homes in Ontario. Fatality rate (presumably) CFR for staff was 0.3% and for (mostly frail and old) residents was ~30%.
9/ I would guess that there would be a higher "conversion rate" among LTC residents from infection to diagnosed cases than among healthy young people, so that IFR:CFR ratio in subpopulation not necessarily the same as among an entire population.
10/ we now know that unwise policies on long-term care facilities in jurisdictions which were original North American exposure to COVID especially NY, NJ caused early CFR to be very, very high, due to concentration of cases among vulnerable due to Cuomo and Murphy policies.
11/ Malcolm Kendrick, discussing Dr Brown's findings,
drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/cov… says that Imperial College model, which panicked everyone, relied on Fauci's erroneous IFR (as opposed to CFR) of 1%. Even worse than we thought.
drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/cov… says that Imperial College model, which panicked everyone, relied on Fauci's erroneous IFR (as opposed to CFR) of 1%. Even worse than we thought.
