With the 2022 #FFIDP regular season in the books I'm going to post my projections vs reality.
As always.
There's good.
There's bad.
There's meh.
But I put those numbers out. I'd better be honest about how useful/close/decent they are.

A few things:
Players that move teams in-season are included as per original projections, but marked with seasonal numbers.
So for example Bradley Chubb appears on the DEN sheet, but all his MIA numbers count.

In my mind I'm saying a certain player will put up these numbers. Obviously we can't predict trades, but if you draft that player, you control his fate. So the pts he scores are the recommendation.
Regardless of how fate alters how he gets them.

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@TomKislingbury

Sep 12, 2020

Safety is the most interesting position in the NFL.
It's right at the front of schematic innovation.
But it's poorly understood - because a lot of safety play happens off camera [and far away from the ball].
Here's some info from the game this week.
#ChiefsKingdom
#WeAreTexans

Firstly the guys you all love: Honey Badger.
Here's where he lined up.
Over a third in the slot.
Some in the box.
Deep quite a bit.
Now often you'll hear people call him a strong safety.
That's just an inadequate term.

Here's Daniel Sorenson.
You'll notice he plays more in the box than Mathieu does.
It's obvious on film too.

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@TomKislingbury

Jun 17, 2020

I did a thing.
I wanted to look at how much injured QBs affected coaches and teams. So I did some fiddling with data from the past few years.
Here we go
#Thread

My method was fairly simple.
I went back through the past 4 years [I had the data handy] and looked at how often starting QBs missed games through injury.
I looked at the PFF grade for the starter and the replacement.

I restricted this to QBs who were hurt rather than dropped.
Obviously there's some grey area there.
Remember when the Bears dropped Trubisky and said he was hurt?
There's an element of interpretation here.
It's not 0% subjective.
But I tried to be as clear as possible

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@TomKislingbury

May 3, 2020

Some thoughts on Anthony McFarland.
I've seen him creeping higher and higher in rookie drafts.
The logic goes that the Steelers want to use James Conner less, and McFarland was picked fairly early so he's got a job.
I'm unconvinced.
#Thread

So the first thing is team RB approach - the Steelers under Tomlin were traditionally a "lead back" team.
Which is why Conner [and Lev Bell before him] had such great seasons.
But that appeared to change last year. They never showed any intention to have a lead back

Here's weekly splits in 2019.
If you squint you can probably claim W1 was a lead back approach. But remember they took an absolute pasting from the Patriots. Weird game.

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@TomKislingbury

Mar 28, 2020

OK.
The ongoing QB megathread starts up again.
8 teams left to cover.
#Thread...

Next - the Jets.
Spoiler: I don't think Sam Darnold is very good.
He's still crazy young and he might get better but at the moment he's not been good and I'm not a believer in ageing=improving.
There have been lot of QBs who were bad young and never got good.

Here's how I score him after 2 years.
Pretty badly.
Poor accuracy.
Poor yds/attempt.
Poor chain-moving.
Poor TD rate.
Too many picks.
Adam Gase is certainly part of this but it's hard to see the good bits of Darnold bar isolated moments.

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@TomKislingbury

Mar 27, 2020

OK. QB numbers #Thread #3 of the day.
[show me what a great Friday you're having with a high-energy, positive LETS GOOOO gif].

The Chargers.
It seems like Tyrod Taylor is getting the first shot right?
I still think it's weird they haven't gone after Jameis, Cam or Dalton.
But there's plenty of time.
No point grasping.

Here's Tyrod in my tool.
Very, very pedestrian.
A low [and dropping] yds/attempt.
And mostly just average across the board.His skillset of deep passer / running QB was good in 2015/16.
But we haven't seen much since then.

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