Milhouse Van Houten 🇨🇦 Profile picture
Sep 8, 2020 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
SEPT. 8 - Canada/Ontario/Québec daily update

I will endeavour to post an update using this template every if not most mornings, using the most current data available at the time.

#COVID19Ontario #covid19canada #covid19quebec
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults. Image
Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.4% of covid deaths.

This contrasts to overall deaths, for which the 80+ cohort accounts for 50.9% of deaths (based on 2016-2018 averages). Image
Bear in mind that the risk of death will always rise in line with one's advancing age. Such is life.

In a given year, like 2018 as an example, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort pass away. Image
Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.

The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.

This is based on 2020 YTD Covid-19 data and 2016-2018 averages. Image
If considered as a wholly distinct and separate cause of death in Canada, Covid-19 would be the 6th leading cause of death in 2020, much like influenza and pneumonia.

This is based on 2020 YTD Covid-19 data and 2016-2018 averages. Image
Ontario - What looks like the start of the fabled second wave (going by case counts) hasn't shown up in the figures for deaths.

So far, the trend in cases since late spring hasn't matched the trend in deaths. Image
Likewise with ICU occupancy. Image
This is what 2020 YTD would look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

n.b. Nearly 65% of ON Covid-19 deaths are among residents of long-term care homes. Image
This is what 2020 YTD would look like in Ontario year-to-year if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

n.b. Nearly 65% of ON Covid-19 deaths are among residents of long-term care homes. Image
This is what 2020 YTD may look like in Ontario on a cumulative basis, using 2016-18 average monthly deaths as a proxy for 2020 data.

n.b. Nearly 65% of ON Covid-19 deaths are among residents of long-term care homes. Image
Ontario - Growth in cumulative cases is outpacing growth in cumulative deaths. Image
Ontario - Growth in cumulative tests conducted is outpacing growth in cumulative cases. Image
Québec is already in the midst of the third wave if one goes by case counts.

However, no trace of even a second wave in the deaths numbers. Image
Or in ICU occupancy. Image

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

Feb 14, 2022
🚨An appeal🚨

I'm very happy to see the @IdeasInst launch! Please take a look at their website and learn more about them. Please also follow them here on Twitter.

It's still the early days of this organization but expect many great things in the future.

theideasinstitute.org/2022/02/04/the…
The mission of the @IdeasInst "is to make a public commitment to the values of the enlightenment: liberty, tolerance, universal rights and rationalism."

This resonates so well with what many of us here believe in, especially as the last two years have strengthened our values.
Their Board of Scholars is impressive and includes many familiar names: @TejaShahzia @DonaldWelsh16 @LDBildy @MikkoPackalen @ClausRinner @JamesManson6263 @PardyBruce @WoodReporting

This is not a fringe minority, but their views may be unacceptable to the established elites.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26, 2022
Ontario 2020-22 comparison in 8 charts.

1. Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, 2010-2022 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths).
2. Cases, hosp'zns & deaths indexed to values 1 year earlier. Black line (index=100) is 365 days ago (all values indexed to values on that date).

(Below black bar = < than one year ago today; Above black bar = > than one year ago today)
3. 2020-2022 seasonal comparison: The number of deaths from/with covid-19 in Ontario.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 25, 2022
Here are two Ontario-focused articles (written by your neighbours!) to share with family and friends who may benefit from knowing they're not alone in feeling that things have gotten out of hand in this province.

The children (and adults) of Ontario are not alright.
"Ontario’s children are the victims of abuse. Under any other circumstances, what Ontario’s children are experiencing would be investigated by our police as child abuse."

H/T @LauraRosenCohen

@fordnation @celliottability @Sflecce

brownstone.org/articles/ontar…
"In my classroom, the learning loss is noticeable. My students can’t concentrate and they aren’t doing the work that I assign to them.
...
Our children need life on the highest volume. And they need it now."

@fordnation @celliottability @Sflecce

bariweiss.substack.com/p/im-a-public-…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14, 2022
Mortality in Canada (thread):

Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Canada, 2010-2021 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths.) Image
Canada total weekly deaths 2016 to 2021. Image
The number of deaths from all causes in 2018-19 vs. number of deaths from or with Covid-19 in 2020-21, by age. Image
Read 19 tweets
Jan 14, 2022
A maternity hospital in Japan has raised concerns about mask usage during pregnancy, noting that the length of umbilical cords has shortened alongside an increase in mask usage during covid.

This was posted on Instagram and is, unsurprisingly, no longer available.
The wording of the Instagram post is available here for those who can read Japanese or who want to attempt a translation.

ameblo.jp/zsunsun55z/ent…
Key finding - Percentage of umbilical cords under 50 cm:

2019 - 28.5%
2020 - 33.3%
2021 - 55%
2021 June onward - 76.9%
Read 5 tweets
Jan 12, 2022
Ontario 2020-22 comparison in 8 charts.

1. Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, 2010-2022 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths).
2. Cases, hosp'zns & deaths indexed to values 1 year earlier. Black line (index=100) is 365 days ago (all values indexed to values on that date).

(Below black bar = < than one year ago today; Above black bar = > than one year ago today)
3. 2020-2022 seasonal comparison: The number of deaths from/with covid-19 in Ontario.
Read 9 tweets

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