Thread by @Neoavatara

So, a Europe #coronavirus update.

Europe is clearly seeing a second wave. All the major countries now have seen surges in cases, but thankfully, not deaths (yet).

France, UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, Belgium and others are seeing cases increase.

What can we learn from this?

First the data.

France:

UK:

Spain:

Italy:

And, Germany:

So, what do we see?

In each of these countries, we see case numbers start to increase approximately a month after they opened up their economies. France, for example, opened up fully in Mid-June...and surge began in Mid-July.

That is approx the same trend we saw in US states.

Second, all of these countries saw a huge first wave...and still got hit by a second wave. Thus dies the Herd Immunity theory. If Italy doesn't have herd immunity, no one does.

Third, in many of these countries, you are seeing higher case rates than the first wave...even though the first wave was worse.

This is what you saw in the US. NY/NJ was GEOMETRICALLY worse than FL/TX, but since we were testing better, the case numbers made it look worse.

Fourth...and this is the worst result...nobody that got hit early is protected.

Louisiana, to my knowledge, was really the first place that got hit hard with one wave, and then got hit with a second wave. These charts look ominously familiar to the European charts above.

And remember...deaths are a lagging indicator. Europe hasn't seen that...but it likely is coming.

And...other places (NY, NJ) better get ready. They just opened up recently...by next month, they may very likely see a new surge.