Thread by @Neoavatara

BLM riots probably cost multiples of that.

But hey...narrative and all that.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1303363495430434817

Look, many cities did NO tracking and tracing after early BLM protests. Some went as far as to tell their operators to not even ask about protesting! (NYC, for example).

But we saw spikes in several cities, for sure. Birmingham, for one...

telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/3…

LA, Seattle and Miami saw at least some data to support that the virus accelerated in the time range after the protests.

foxnews.com/politics/citie…

I can tell you as a fact, I talked to one scientist on the national level that said they had at least preliminary data that showed BLM caused a small spike (not a huge one, mind you)...but didn't want to risk publishing such data in this environment.

axios.com/black-lives-ma…

Lets note that in Europe, they are unambiguously saying protests are a risk factor. Unlike us, they seem to be more science based.

politico.eu/article/balanc…

Ultimately why is the Sturgis case easier to study?

1. It was one event, at one location, in a sparse population.
2. They did a good job of tracking and tracing.
3. The attendees did a good job reporting back to researchers.

With BLM protests, they mostly occurred in high population density areas (where causes of spread are harder to delineate); politicians limited tracking and tracing for purely partisan reasons;

capradio.org/articles/2020/…

"At a news conference Garcetti told reporters “we do believe there is a connection”...

“It’s highly likely given the increased numbers that we’re seeing that some of this is in fact people who may have been in a crowded situation at one of the protests where there was spread.”

"She noted at the time, however, that because they were receiving such a high volume of cases they had not been able to “really pinpoint whether or not the exact source of an exposure was at protests.”

Credit to LA County Public Health Dir Barbara Ferrer for being that honest.