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Charlie Sykes

8 Sep, 7 tweets, 2 min read

My conversation with myself:

Future me: How could you possibly have gotten this so wrong AGAIN?

Me: Well, the boat parades turned out to be a better leading indicator than we thought.

Future me: This is serious. What did you miss?

Me: Minnesota. 1/7

mailchi.mp/thebulwark/how…

I didn't take Trump's chances there seriously. And as Minnesota went, so went Wisconsin. There was one poll around Labor Day that showed Trump tied in Minnesota, but the real Clear Politics average showed Biden up 3.7%.

Future me: So what happened there? 2/7

Me: The same thing that happened in WI and MI. Trump managed to pull off small wins by running up the score in rural areas. It turns out that he did have hidden voters -- white working class supporters who didn't vote in 2016 but came out in 2020. 3/7

mailchi.mp/thebulwark/how…

We also underestimated the extent to which the pandemic and confusion over mail-in ballots disproportionately hurt Democrats.

And, again, African American and younger voters didn't turn out in the numbers Biden needed in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. 4/7

Future me: What else did you miss?

Me: The violence and the economy.

Inside the media/woke bubble, pundits underestimated the white backlash against urban violence. We told ourselves that the law and order pitch hadn't worked and the early polls backed that up... 5/7

...but when it continued, it seemed to have (a) fired up turnout in his base and (b) brought home some wobbly GOPers.

The good jobs and GDP numbers in October also helped. People voted their 401ks. Who knew? 6/7

Future me: Were there any events that made a difference?

Me: I think most people understood that Trump's Election Eve vaccine announcement was a ruse, but I didn't expect that [BLANK] would happen during the debates. 7/7

mailchi.mp/thebulwark/how…

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Charlie Sykes

@SykesCharlie

2 Apr

Rush Limbaugh: Feb. 24: “Now, I want to tell you the truth about the coronavirus. You think I’m wrong about this? You think I’m missing it by saying that’s — Yeah, I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.”

thebulwark.com/newsletter-iss…

March 11: “This coronavirus, they’re just — all of this panic is just not warranted. This, I’m telling you, when I tell you — when I’ve told you that this virus is the common cold.

March 13: “We’re shutting down our country because of the — the cold virus, which is what coronaviruses are...We’re shutting it — can you imagine our enemies watching this? You think the Chinese are not laughing themselves silly over how easy this has been?”

Read 4 tweets

Charlie Sykes

@SykesCharlie

28 Mar

Thread -->

This story from WI deserves more attention.

Uline is one of the state's biggest employers.

It is owned by one of Trump's most lavish and loyal donors... Richard and Liz Uihlein..

Here's the Times profile of the Uhleins from 2018:

"The Most Powerful Conservative Couple You’ve Never Heard Of,"

nytimes.com/2018/06/07/us/…

The Times reported that the company "kept its work force going through the week, despite complaints from employees, including those crowded into its call centers, working side-by-side in cubicles.

“Nothing’s really changed,” one employee said. “It’s just nerve-racking.

Read 9 tweets

Charlie Sykes

@SykesCharlie

12 Mar

Before TrumpWorld tries to memory-hole this... a Thread -->

January 22:
Trump: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

February 2:
Trump: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”

February 10:
Trump: “A lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat—as the heat comes in.”

February 24:
Trump: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. . . . Stock Market starting to look very good to me.”

February 27:
Trump: “It’s going to disappear one day, it’s like a miracle.”

February 28:
Eric Trump: “In my opinion, it’s a great time to buy stocks or into your 401k. I would be all in . . . let’s see if I’m right.”

Read 7 tweets

Charlie Sykes

@SykesCharlie

14 Jun 19

Devastating. Uterrly devastating demolition of the new illiberal right.... (Thread)
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

"Black Americans did not abandon liberal democracy because of slavery, Jim Crow, and the systematic destruction of whatever wealth they managed to accumulate; instead they took up arms in two world wars to defend it. "

"Japanese Americans did not reject liberal democracy because of internment or the racist humiliation of Asian exclusion; they risked life and limb to preserve it."

Read 5 tweets

Charlie Sykes

@SykesCharlie

26 Apr 19

@benjaminwittes

Important: @benjaminwittes notes Mueller’s report suggests strongly that Trump did, in fact, successfully obstruct the investigation by dangling pardons to potential witness, most notably former campaign chairman Paul Manafort
thebulwark.com/did-trumps-att…

“Trump got what he wanted in this case. Manafort did not end up cooperating to Mueller’s satisfaction.” Manafort ultimately breached his plea deal after prosecutors concluded that he had failed to cooperate and was lying to them.

So the reality here may well be that the president’s obstructive conduct actually did, in fact, obstruct the investigation.,” writes Wittes.

Read 4 tweets

Charlie Sykes

@SykesCharlie

19 Feb 19

@urbanachiever

Read this. @urbanachiever argues that Trump's emergency's is just the tip of MAGA's growing taste for authoritarianism... thebulwark.com/make-authorita… via @BulwarkOnline

"But the MAGA right’s disillusionment may be more ominous than it appears. While Trump may have stumbled upon his declaration as last resort, for his supporters, the “state of emergency” is an organizing principle. "
thebulwark.com/make-authorita…

"And if his presidency ends in failure and disgrace, his former supporters will likely blame him for lacking the fortitude to extend the logic of emergency to its authoritarian conclusion.
thebulwark.com/make-authorita…

Read 5 tweets

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