1/6
The latest China Perspectives Dashboard from Fitch has just been released. Among other things it says that roughly RMB 3 trillion in Special Bonds have been issued so far this year: “Our analysis suggests the largest category corresponds to funds raised for infrastructure...
2/6
projects, which have more than tripled from the same period in 2019, accounting for almost one-third of Special Bonds issued this year."

RMB 3 trillion is 80% of the RMB 3.75 trillion quota for this year, with the latter equal to about 3.7% of GDP, and 75% greater than...
3/6
last year's issuance.

Fitch believes that about 7% of the roughly RMB 1 trillion that went into infrastructure was invested in "new infrastructure" – telecom and high tech (see below) – which many analysts have argued represents a shift from the...
news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-0…
4/6
massive amounts of non-productive investment on which Beijing has relied in the past into productive, leading-edge investment. This, they say, changes the dynamics of Chinese investment from non-productive to productive.

But even if you believe that all of this “new...
5/6
infrastructure” will be economically productive (and I am skeptical), we should keep a sense of proportion. The amount is a small part of the total, and just the increase in the amount of spending on old infrastructure this year will far exceed the total amount...
6/6
that will be spent on “new infrastructure”. It would be foolish to assume, in other words, that the supposed focus on “new infrastructure” will change the debt dynamics.

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More from @michaelxpettis

11 Sep
1/5
Growth in Chinese debt continues to be very high. According to data released today by the PBoC, aggregate financing in China was up RMB 3.6 trillion in August, more than twice the RMB 1.7 trillion in July and roughly 40% above consensus expectations. The stock of debt...
2/5
grew 13.3% year-on-year, versus 12.9% a month ago. This is a big number, bringing year-to-date aggregate financing up by RMB 26.0 billion, for a nominal 10.4% growth since January.

The first eight months of 2019 accounted for 60% of the total increase. If the same...
3/5
proportion holds this year, growth in aggregate financing this year will be 14.6%. If, instead, the total amount of additional debt in the last four months of 2020 is the same nominally as in the last four months of 2019, the growth in aggregate financing this...
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep
1/4

Much of what this article calls yuan strength was actually dollar weakness – on a trade-weighted basis the yuan has been pretty flat – but I would add two points.

First, with very large inflows on the trade account, the irony is...

scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
that Beijing might indeed be intervening again, although indirectly, to keep the currency from appreciating.

Second, the PBoC has long known that while a weak currency may be good for exports, it weakens domestic demand by effectively reducing the household share of...
3/4
GDP, which is why all the claims in the past 5-6 years that Beijing would respond to slower growth with a large depreciation never made sense to me.

This is where the contradiction in the dual currency model becomes obvious. International circulation benefits from...
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
1/5
I was just re-reading Jagdish Bhagwati’s 1998 article "The Capital Myth: The Difference Between Trade in Widgets and Dollars" on why free capital flows are not a corollary of free trade. The limited benefits of a more efficient allocation of...

doi.org/10.7916/D8SJ1W…
2/5
capital are less than the costs of allowing speculative inflows and outflows that can seriously distort currency values, asset prices, lending standards, and interest rates.

Bhagwati points out that while there is plenty of evidence that free trade can create economic...
3/5
benefits, the same argument for free capital flows is wholly ideological, based on no supporting data, and driven mostly by what he calls the Wall Street-Treasury complex. I would add that capital flow imbalances create trade flow imbalances that actually undermine the...
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
1/
The puzzle continues into its fifth month. In August the dollar weakened again, driving up the value of China’s reserves by $15-20 billion. In addition the country ran a trade surplus of nearly $60 billion, and yet reported reserves rose by...
scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/
only $10.2 billion, which is less than what we might have expected just from the valuation changes, and means that other net outflows exceeded the trade surplus.

Where did these outflows go and in what form? One of my clients told me that foreign bank loans are being...
3/
repaid. They may also be partly reflected in a slightly smaller EU surplus, but it seems to me that the main offset for the surging Chinese surplus is the US deficit, as @Brad_Setser argues in one of his tweets (and from which I stole this graph). China many be recycling...
Read 5 tweets
5 Sep
1/5
Here we go again. I am not sure how credible a source Global Times is, but for Beijing selling US Treasuries isn’t the hard part. The hard part is what the PBoC does with the proceeds.

-If they buy other USD assets, then nothing has changed.

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/5
-If they buy euro, yen, sterling, etc., they will unleash anger from these countries who will suffer disinflationary pressures as their currencies rise against the dollar, and who will have to absorb the consequent reduction in the US current account deficit.
3/5
-If they buy the currencies of developing countries, they take highly pro-cyclical credit risks that they have been actively trying to reduce.

-If they stockpile commodities, given how important Chinese growth is for commodity prices, they lock in a huge amount of...
Read 5 tweets
2 Sep
1/7

Good piece by Robin Harding, but I am even less impressed by Abenomics than he is. I do however think it has important lessons for China. Like China today – although not nearly to the same extent – Japanese demand was severely unbalanced in...

ft.com/content/9f4b16…
2/7

the 1980s and early 1990s, and with consumption so low, the country relied too heavily on investment and the trade surplus to deliver growth.

Over the next two decades Japan slowly raised the household share of GDP, and with it the consumption share, mainly (I think) by...
3/7

shifting private debt to the government balance sheet. The result is that from the early 1990s until 2013, the private consumption share of GDP rose 6-7 percentage points to nearly 59% of GDP: certainly an improvement as Japan went through its own difficult version of...
Read 7 tweets

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