1/5
Growth in Chinese debt continues to be very high. According to data released today by the PBoC, aggregate financing in China was up RMB 3.6 trillion in August, more than twice the RMB 1.7 trillion in July and roughly 40% above consensus expectations. The stock of debt...
Growth in Chinese debt continues to be very high. According to data released today by the PBoC, aggregate financing in China was up RMB 3.6 trillion in August, more than twice the RMB 1.7 trillion in July and roughly 40% above consensus expectations. The stock of debt...
2/5
grew 13.3% year-on-year, versus 12.9% a month ago. This is a big number, bringing year-to-date aggregate financing up by RMB 26.0 billion, for a nominal 10.4% growth since January.
The first eight months of 2019 accounted for 60% of the total increase. If the same...
grew 13.3% year-on-year, versus 12.9% a month ago. This is a big number, bringing year-to-date aggregate financing up by RMB 26.0 billion, for a nominal 10.4% growth since January.
The first eight months of 2019 accounted for 60% of the total increase. If the same...
3/5
proportion holds this year, growth in aggregate financing this year will be 14.6%. If, instead, the total amount of additional debt in the last four months of 2020 is the same nominally as in the last four months of 2019, the growth in aggregate financing this...
proportion holds this year, growth in aggregate financing this year will be 14.6%. If, instead, the total amount of additional debt in the last four months of 2020 is the same nominally as in the last four months of 2019, the growth in aggregate financing this...
4/5
year will be 13.1%.
The actual number will probably turn out to be between these two. To put these numbers in context, last year the official debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 6 percentage points. If we assume that nominal GDP will grow by 3.5-4.5% this year, this implies...
year will be 13.1%.
The actual number will probably turn out to be between these two. To put these numbers in context, last year the official debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 6 percentage points. If we assume that nominal GDP will grow by 3.5-4.5% this year, this implies...
5/5
a rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio of 21-27 percentage points.
Put another way, in order to grow GDP nominally by 3.5-4.5%, the Chinese economy will have had to create new debt equal to 33-37 percentage points of GDP in 2020.
a rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio of 21-27 percentage points.
Put another way, in order to grow GDP nominally by 3.5-4.5%, the Chinese economy will have had to create new debt equal to 33-37 percentage points of GDP in 2020.
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