Quick roundup of overnight model guidance for tropical systems in the Atlantic.
Key idea is that a "recurve pathway" opens up in the central Atlantic this weekend. Rene definitely goes through, not clear if Paulette does or not.
Then we watch next waves emerging off Africa.
Key idea is that a "recurve pathway" opens up in the central Atlantic this weekend. Rene definitely goes through, not clear if Paulette does or not.
Then we watch next waves emerging off Africa.
These "recurve pathways" will show up every few days as troughs move east/southeast from Atlantic Canada.
If storms are close enough, they recurve N/NE through those pathways. If not, they continue W or WNW.
But even if recurve chance 1 is missed, there will be another later.
If storms are close enough, they recurve N/NE through those pathways. If not, they continue W or WNW.
But even if recurve chance 1 is missed, there will be another later.
Overall, I think the threat for significant tropical cyclone impacts (not counting the breezy showers from 94L) in the US during the next seven days is low.
Parts of the Caribbean (Lesser Antilles) should keep a close eye on the next wave emerging off Africa for possible impacts
Parts of the Caribbean (Lesser Antilles) should keep a close eye on the next wave emerging off Africa for possible impacts
That said, I’m still not ready to fully close the door on the possibility that Paulette slips farther west than currently anticipated. If that were to occur, we’d have to entertain the idea of some East Coast impacts in a little over a week.
But right now, I’m not that concerned
But right now, I’m not that concerned
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