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Jack Sillin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jack Sillin 🇺🇦
@JackSillin
Meteorologist | Adventurer | Occasional Twitter dropout. jack (dot) sillin (at) gmail (dot) com if you need me. Long live 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Sep 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There are a whole lot of houses that shouldn’t exist in Florida (and elsewhere!) and the sad fact is a tremendous number of them are about to be rebuilt on taxpayers’ dime through NFIP.

This is not what climate resilience looks like. NFIP is one of America’s leading climate blind spots and a hugely underrated problem.

It keeps people in homes that shouldn’t exist so they can experience the danger and trauma of devastating floods over and over and over again.

shfwire.com/new-bills-seek…
Dec 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The storm is really starting to feel the squeeze between new cells encroaching from the south and the broader line of storms approaching from the west.

It's still dangerous and in a dangerous environment, but I think its time of unrivaled dominance is running out. Indeed, the latest scan shows higher CC values (though still enough of a drop to be considered a TDS IMO), a weaker/broader couplet, and a lack of a clearly-defined reflectivity hook.

It's still dangerous, but it's no longer in tip top shape.
Dec 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Still nothing standing in the way of this supercell producing a strong to violent tornado for the forseeable future, though low-level instability starts waning a bit as you approach the I-69 corridor.

Either way, if you're in the storm's path (even if not warned yet), be ready. SPC is clearly on the same page with a new MD saying that this storm could remain at or near this intensity (producing a strong to violent tornado) for *at least* another HOUR #KYwx
Sep 6, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
As we start a new week, let's check in to see what's on the menu down in the tropics.

-#Larry recurves into the North Atlantic, perhaps brushing NL.

-#91L may still develop but probably not until it moves east of FL.

-New Caribbean wave to watch.

-Maybe a new EATL storm. Image Right now, of the three storms that have yet to develop, the new Caribbean system probably deserves the most scrutiny.

It will form in a manner similar to Ida and 91L, which means it could either become an impactful storm or wander west into Central America. Image
Sep 5, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
As someone:
-without a meteorology degree
-very self-conscious about how those in the field regard me as a person/info source
-who makes mistakes

I’m very familiar with feeling nervous about being labeled a source of misinfo. I’m never going to be perfect but I try very hard to respond to and improve from criticism.

Neither outlet I mentioned in my earlier tweet has ever made even cursory gestures in that direction, hence the rather harsh approach in dealing with them.
Sep 5, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
As we're in peak Hurricane Season and the tropical Atlantic remains active, here's a quick reminder to make sure you're tuned into reliable sources (first and foremost @NHC_Atlantic) and tuned out of the cacophony of misinformation.

Here's some BS I've been asked about today: ImageImage @NHC_Atlantic Both of these outlets are well-known purveyors of misinformation about tropical cyclones. If you're following them, I suggest the unfollow button.

If friends/family ask you about their posts, I'd make the same suggestion.
Aug 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
11PM update on #Ida is in from NHC.

Winds still steady at 105mph as the pressure falls to 964mb.

Satellite presentation continues to improve, but we'll have to wait until the next recon plane arrives in a few hours to see whether that's translating to stronger winds. Winds haven't come up as much as anticipated today, due largely to some lingering chaos in the inner core after Cuba.

But the storm has picked up tons of energy, dropping its central pressure by >20mb and pushing hurricane force winds dozens of miles from the center.
Aug 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
During Laura last year, I cobbled together a little visual to monitor trends in the storm's track and distinguish steady trends from short-term wobbles.

Well the #wobbleplot is back for #Ida. Satellite fixes suggest the storm remains towards the eastern edge of track guidance. Image Checking in on the #WobblePlot roughly an hour later, #Ida is still following the NE side of the ensemble guidance envelope.

I've penciled in the mental adjustment to ensemble guidance I've been making in light of these trends.

The core may get rather close to New Orleans. Image
Aug 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Very latest Vortex Data Message from @53rdWRS shows #Ida's eyewall now open to the NW, a 180-degree change from the NOAA pass an hour or so ago.

This indicates instability in the eyewall from the hot towers pinwheeling around the center.

Should close off and symmetrize soon. Spinning up a hurricane’s eyewall is in some ways a lot like spinning pizza dough.

Initially you have an oblong blob with two hands (hot towers) working to get it spinning.
Aug 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
IR satellite imagery this morning shows twin "vortical hot towers" (incredibly intense thunderstorms) pinwheeling around #Ida's center.

This is a signal that the storm has fully patched whatever damage Cuba did to its core and is once again rapidly intensifying. Hurricane Hunters are flying into the storm this morning to provide more detailed information on its structure and intensity.

The first @NOAA_HurrHunter plane is now approaching the center from the northwest.
Aug 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Unfortunately, #Ida has continued to rapidly intensify this afternoon and is now an 80mph hurricane.

Cloud tops have warmed somewhat in the last hour or so as we approach DMIN and the center passes over the Isle of Youth.

This is expected, and doesn't preclude more RI tomorrow. The official NHC forecast for #Ida now calls for landfall in SE #LAwx as a 140mph Cat 4.

The storm is overperforming intensity predictions, a trend that may well continue over the weekend.

Plan as if this could be a Category Five. Even if it's not, it may well feel like it.
Aug 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
In the Gulf of Mexico, #99L's track will be set in part by its intensity.

An area-averaged sounding around the storm reveals subtle differences in low vs mid/upper-level steering.

A stronger storm wld feel SSE winds ~300mb and move more to the N resulting in landfall farther E. With ocean temperatures approaching 30C, no dry air in sight and near total command of the upper-level wind field, it's honestly hard to see a scenario where #99L doesn't rapidly intensify in the Gulf.

So watch out for potential further shifts east in the forecast track.
Jun 5, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
About to head out for my first storm chase of the season here in #MEwx.

Maine chasing options are extremely limited by visibility thanks to lots of hills and even more trees. I have pre-scouted spots ready to go once storms develop.

Today’s target prob the hill N of Auburn. Now for the classic dilemma of which storm to target. Skowhegan looks too far north, a couple cells along the pre-frontal trough farther south look meh, that cell north of MWN though...
Mar 19, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Following severe storms through the Southeast this week, it's been hard not to notice some large gaps in radar coverage of the area.

Overlaying demographic data with radar coverage data, it's hard not to notice how the areas most underserved by NEXRAD are also majority-Black. Image Of course, there are many areas across the country that lack good low-level NEXRAD coverage and are majority white. Plains, Midwest, west, Northeast, etc.

But it's hard for me not look at this map and think that the pattern of coverage in the South specifically is coincidental.
Mar 18, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
A couple quick takeaways from watching @spann tornado coverage most of yesterday:
-A few short & understandable key messages are repeated frequently
-"You know what to do" and "we've talked about this" are repeated often, helping viewers feel more in control of the situation. @spann -There are frequent and detailed descriptions of what exact conditions specific areas are experiencing. I think this is valuable because it may reduce the urge to step outside and "double check", especially when tornadoes are visible from spotter streams or skycams
Mar 17, 2021 • 33 tweets • 21 min read
Cell near Hattiesburg #MSwx has rapidly punched up to about 50,000 feet which means it has broken through the capping inversion.

It is already exhibiting rotation on radar and is likely not far off from producing severe weather given the very favorable environment. Looking at dual-pol data (ZDR bottom left), it appears this cell is already size-sorting raindrops with highest ZDR values along the forward flank gust front and lower ZDR values farther west/NW of the mesocyclone.

This helps infer the presence of rotation within the storm.
Sep 9, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Quick roundup of overnight model guidance for tropical systems in the Atlantic.

Key idea is that a "recurve pathway" opens up in the central Atlantic this weekend. Rene definitely goes through, not clear if Paulette does or not.

Then we watch next waves emerging off Africa. These "recurve pathways" will show up every few days as troughs move east/southeast from Atlantic Canada.

If storms are close enough, they recurve N/NE through those pathways. If not, they continue W or WNW.

But even if recurve chance 1 is missed, there will be another later.