@elonmusk will be footing the bill, Charley, as he has since the beginning.

If Elon succeeds in growing $TSLA by >10x for all shareholders as of the date he agreed to this compensation package, he will earn the right to pay Tesla $7.1B cash to purchase these stock options.
/1
Under GAAP guidelines (using Black-Scholes), Tesla will expense a maximum of $2.283 billion against the income statement over the 10 years covered by the agreement which began March 21, 2018.

$0.7B has already hit as Elon made progress towards achieving the plan’s milestones.
/2
If it costs shareholders anything, it’s a maximum of:

12% dilution of a company whose market cap he will have grown enormously
+$2.283 billion over 10 years in imaginary SBC GAAP expense on the P&L

... paired with $7.1B in real cash Elon will pay Tesla for his shares.
/3
Tesla has been free cash flow positive and non-GAAP profitable for over 2 years.

Tesla has been GAAP profitable over the past year and will moving forward even after paying for Elon’s stock compensation because they are growing global sales volume and improving margins.
/4
If you would like to know what I expect, here is my latest long-term tesla earnings forecast:
... and if you would like further information on how the 2018 CEO Performance Award works, see this thread:
/6
And here’s a chart of the actual CEO Performance Award expense to date as well as my forecast for future quarters.

I should note that large variances to the timing and amounts are likely by quarter because the CFO has broad latitude to declare milestones probable, etc.:

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More from @ICannot_Enough

3 Sep
“It’s actually a radical redesign of the core technology of building a car. And some of this, when I do Battery Day later in September, I’ll be talking about what we are going to be doing here in Berlin.”
- ⁦@elonmusk
$TSLA
(full transcript below)
The audio quality was poor in places, so I took down a transcript myself for the benefit of those who can’t hear well or for whom English is not their first language.
/3
Read 12 tweets
9 Aug
Here's my latest $TSLA forecast.

I'm expecting a $1.6B tax benefit from prior years to roll through the P&L in Q3, boosting GAAP profit (but not Adj. EBITDA). Maybe it won't hit until Q4. 🤷‍♂️

Either way, I cannot underscore enough: Tesla's strategy is working. 🔌🔋⚡️🚗🚀📈
And here's some charts, for people who like charts:
The remainder of this thread I dedicate to critics who claim that I am "bad at math", "lazy", or tweeting "a high-level forecast". I guess they think I just type numbers and hit send?

The first 4 slides are my *summary tab*. Here's the backup detail w/my forecast assumptions:
/3
Read 17 tweets
30 Oct 19
[thread]
Who has time to look into allegations made by $TSLAQ haters & short sellers on Twitter that “$TSLA is doomed” because they aren’t accruing enough warranty reserves to pay future claims??

A publication for warranty professionals- that’s who!
/1


warrantyweek.com/archive/ww2019…
Allow me to quickly summarize for those who don’t have time to read the article:

Tesla is accruing more warranty reserves and paying less claims than GM or Ford- so the short sellers have it exactly backwards (again).

Hat tip to @VGrinshpun for finding this publication.

/2
And here are the charts from the article comparing Tesla against the other U.S. automakers.

First, warranty claims by Tesla owners are lower than GM, Ford, or Fiat Chrysler U.S. as a percent of revenue (car value at time of sale).

So much for #TeslaServiceIssues !
Read 7 tweets
30 Jan 19
“Tesla market share of battery electric vehicles in the U.S. is 80%. So all other manufacturers combined were the other 20%. I think that’s not bad.”
-Elon Musk
$TSLA 🔌🔋⚡️🚘🇺🇸
“I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward.”
@elonmusk
“We are going to be stocking all parts at all service centers. Also it’s going to make sense for our service centers to do basic bodywork... in 15-20 minutes, so there will be no more of this weeks at a body shop stuff.”
Read 33 tweets
9 Nov 18
@threadreaderapp @RationalEtienne Great thread, @anonyx10 . Tacking on a few of my thoughts:

“...selling $137.2 million in non-ZEV regulatory credits to traditional automakers. It also sold $52.3 million in ZEV credits.”
@threadreaderapp @RationalEtienne @anonyx10 To read this article or the twitter posts of unhinged shorts, you would think it was some sort of crime to sell ZEV or GHG credits.

It is not Tesla’s fault that competitors who had the same business opportunity to sell EVs and eligible credits chose not to.
@threadreaderapp @RationalEtienne @anonyx10 The question of the single entity representing more than 10% of Tesla Accounts Receivable was answered by Deepak on the call and again by the Tesla spokesperson cited in the article. This is only “a question” to “Wall Street analysts” so dense that they didn’t understand either.
Read 7 tweets

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