So here is where we are now:

Johnson has told the world he intends to break international law and jeopardise the GFA while, at the same time, Herr Führage is literally trying to organize malitas to patrol our beaches while demanding that the WA must be completely repudiated. 1/
Meanwhile, EU Parliament says that it will veto UK FTA if Johnson does not back down, and the Americans are saying no trade deal with them if GFA is jeopardised. The twin effects will be economically and politically catastrophic. /2
Johnson is in zugzwang but I doubt whether he can face up to the humiliation of backing down or that many Tories will have the balls to stand up to him or Führage and his neofascist mobs. They will whine but ultimately comply. /3
Which means that the very probable outcome is much worse than No deal. The likely outcome is No Deal ++.

Not only tariffs and massive trade barriers damaging the economy, but also international pariah status and no deals with our friends across the Atlantic. /4
It's difficult to overstate the seriousness of this. This is an August 1914 moment; we are hurtling towards catastrophe without anyone apparently having the ability to stop it. (COVID doesn't help. Otherwise we could all rise up and swamp the streets of Westminster.) /5
Pretty sure this will kill off the Tory Party for a long time, but I suspect that there is serious risk they will first become more totalitarian in a bid to cling on to power and supress dissent. Expect all sorts of wheezes to make voting them out in 2024 more difficult. /6
How the population will react to the economic wreckage is crucial. On past form, Herr Führage will try and stoke up hatred towards ethnic minorities (Muslims could become the new Jews) and remoaners like me (the new communists). /7
Also, of course, what happens in Scotland and Northern Ireland will also be critical. The worse the mess in Westminster and England, the more they will want to break away. Trying to stop them will just make matters worse. /8
A few days ago, I tweeted my speech last week in Liverpool about the dangers of fascism in Britain. In just a few days we have lurched significantly further down that path. /9
I am sorry to be the purveyor of miserable prophecies, but if we get through 2021 without serious hardship, social breakdown and some violence we will be very lucky indeed. Thank you Tories. Giving into fascists in UKIP and the Brexit Party was always going to end this way. /10

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More from @RichardBentall

10 Sep
Brexit is a cult beyond reason; more like a religion than a serious policy initiative. To see that this is true, it just has to be noted that in Brexitier ideology EVERYTHING is the EXACT OPPOSITE to what it is claimed to be. EVERYTHING! 1/
For example, Brexitiers claim to be for free trade, and to achieve this they are imposing massive and expensive trade barriers with our nearest and biggest trading partners. These will increase costs of imports/exports and intoduce delays, wrecking just-in-time production. 2/
(I've been trying to find a historical precedent for this. the only one I know of is the tariffs imposed by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff act of 1930 in the USA, which are thought to have contributed to the Great Depression. Let me know if you think of any other precedents.) 3/
Read 13 tweets
6 Sep
Yesterday, Sept 5th, I gave the first political speech of my life - about the threat of fascism in Britain today - at the 3.5% meeting on the steps of St George's Hall, Liverpool. This is what I said. 1/13
Yesterday, Sept 5th, I gave the first political speech of my life - about the threat of fascism in Britain today - at the 3.5% meeting on the steps of St George's Hall, Liverpool. This is what I said. 2/13
Yesterday, Sept 5th, I gave the first political speech of my life - about the threat of fascism in Britain today - at the 3.5% meeting on the steps of St George's Hall, Liverpool. This is what I said. 3/13
Read 15 tweets
28 Jun
So I've been thinking about @SebastianEPayne's account of @michaelgove's Ditchley lecture last night. Gove, you'll recall, was described as a Maoist by David Cameron.
On the surface, Gove seems to be making some decent points - get more (especially scientific) expertise into the civil service (quite a change of tune) and stand up for the 'forgotten man' (not sure of he cares about forgotten women) who voted to leave in 2016.
He grandiosely compares this project to FDR's New Deal. But Cameron was right - it's pure Maoism. He and Cummings (I suspect Johnson is just along for the ride) want to tear everything down and get us to Year Zero.
Read 10 tweets
27 May
Short thread on lying and the threat democracy in Britain (with links to previous threads) - an important topic given events of the last few days, and the question of whether Dominic Cummings should keep his job as Johnson’s advisor, which I’ll return to later. 1/
So first, what's so bad about lying? Note that not all deceptions are lies. Smiling to hide our feelings isn’t lying. Note also that deception has deep roots in our evolutionary past – think of the cat that bigs itself up to a rival by arching its back and sticking up its fur. 2/
Lying is a specifically human type of deception - a verbal statement, believed by liar to be false, made with the intention that another person be deceived. Put another way, a lie is a calculated way of trying to manipulate the beliefs of another person to one’s advantage. 3/
Read 22 tweets
28 Apr
An online exchange with @montie and @wallaceme of @ConHome has got me thinking about the strange death of the UK @Conservatives. Let me explain. /1
I grew up in Conservative Household. Dad and mum were activists during '70s and I was briefly a @YoungCons at that time (I know, I know). I've always been pro-European. In '75 campaigned with other young cons for Britain staying in the EEC (got arrested for fly posting). /2
When I went to university and became a psychologist I drifted towards the centre, but lost interest in politics. Since 1990s I've been hovering in the bit of the Venn diagram where Labour centre and Lib Dems overlapped; I guess you could call me a Blairite (I know, I know). /3
Read 26 tweets
20 Jan
What is the biggest lie of Brexit? There are so many, it's hard to choose, and perhaps we should hold a competition.

Here is my choice (repeated endlessly by Brexiters of all persuasions: Brexit is about promoting free trade.

Many Brexiters have made this claim, including @RupertLowe10, @DanielJHannan and @LiamFox. Here is our trade secretary, @trussliz boasting about the trading opportunities with Africa


Nothing could be further from the truth than the Brexit lie that leaving the EU will promote free trade. In fact, Brexit is the deliberate decision to tear up our existing free trade arrangements, and replace them with inferior ones, thereby making trade less free.

Read 9 tweets

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