Thread by @taylor_vandoren

As a 1918 flu scholar, I think it's insanely important to point out (now esp. given Dr. Fauci's statement today about "back to normal" by the end of 2021) ...

It's not going to be the same "normal" we left 6 months ago. (1/)

@AcademicChatter #AcademicTwitter

@AcademicChatter The 1918 influenza pandemic lasted for 3 distinct waves over about 2 years, and the world was literally never the same again (2/)

The Black Plague lasted for about 3 years, but there were serious breakouts of plague for hundreds of years afterwards. (3/)

That is to say, massive disease/mortality events like this are things that happen. They are best abated by non-pharmaceutical interventions (bc they mostly didn't exist til recently).

They also fundamentally changed culture. Permanently. (4/)

I cannot promise you that the New Normal will be better, but I also can't say it will be worse. I can promise you that it will be different.

And we will be okay.

El fin.
(5/5)

For those wanting specifics:

Black Plague:
1. Severe demographic disruption = evo of reproductive/family strategies
2. Economic disruption rendered system obsolete, rebuilt from scratch
3. People were desperate for God = foundation for Protestant Reformation

4. Has been linked to abandonment of Latin in favor of English and French instead
5. Tones of despair in art stem from almost precisely mid-14th century; death imagery, tombs, skeletons mixing w/living people

Consequences of 1918 flu:

1. Birth and meteoric rise of the field of virology = revolutionizing our understanding of microscopic world
2. Similar to Black Plague, death of primarily reproductive-aged ppl = evo of family strategies

3. Drastic reduction in morbidity through mortality of other dangerous/prolific diseases like tuberculosis = increasing population health and biomedical advancement in some Western countries

(though relationship btw morbid/mort is complicated, my demog friends know)