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Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
@RonBrownstein
Sep 12, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
These detailed NYT/Siena polls show some cracks for Biden over Trump's "order" offensive. But mostly they underscore why this isn't 1968: Most col+ whites-& even many non-col whites-see an underlying problem w/racism in policing & believe Trump makes situation worse, not better
In the WI poll, 51-42 majority still view #BlackLivesMatter favorably, including 64% of col+ whites & 40% of non-col. Among the WI col+ whites, 61% say Biden would do better at handling protests; 67% say he'd do better on race relations
In the MN poll, some worrisome signs for Biden: many believe he supports cutting police $ & just 1/5 support that. But 54% (including 61% col+ whites, 45% non-col) say Trump encourages violence; 52-41 say racism in policing bigger problem than riots (including 62% col+ whites)
And on the bottom line, MN voters narrowly pick Biden for maintaining "law and order" (including 59% of col+ whites) & by big margins on dealing with the protests (including 63% col+ whites) & handling race relations (66% col+ whites).
All of this reinforces many other polls: Americans don't like disorder, but most (including big majority of col+ whites) see a real problem of racism in policing & believe the path to calm is not an iron fist but dealing w/the underlying issue-which they don't believe Trump will

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More from @RonBrownstein

Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Mar 21
Among other lightning rod provisions @RepublicanStudy calls for repealing Medicare authority to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices, cap out of pocket drug spending for seniors, force rebates when drug cos increase prices faster than inflation & cut insulin price to $35
"Biden & Congressional Dems have embraced socialist price controls that will limit access to life-saving drugs....As part of the full repeal of the disastrous IRA, the RSC Budget would ensure continued access to these life-saving treatments by removing these price controls"
Medicare will announce its first round of lowered prices thru negotiations w/drug companies on 9/1/24. It's a centerpiece of Biden efforts to convince voters his agenda can lower their costs. Now largest caucus of House Rs gives him a clear contrast by proposing to repeal it
Read 5 tweets
Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Mar 7
Trump mostly frames the race as a comparison b/twn their terms, arguing he left US in great shape & Biden derailed it. Biden has plenty to shoot at vs that argument, but multiple D strategists told me it'd be a mistake for Biden to claim success while so many are struggling
@davidaxelrod "I don’t think you want to argue about whether you are better off in those [Trump] years or these years. You want to argue about who will help you be better off in the future, and what you have to do to make people better off in the future.”
@patrickgaspard says that although Biden may want to accentuate the positive, it is more important for him to acknowledge the frustration that so many Americans feel about their “lived experience with inflation and immigration.” “
Read 8 tweets
Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Feb 12
Democrats face a dangerous convergence: The party must defend an unusually large number of seats in terrain that is highly contested at the presidential level precisely as Biden is struggling in polls against Trump
In Nov, Dems are defending 3 Senate seats in states where Trump beat Biden in 2020 (OH/MT/WV). Those have received much attention. But Dems are also defending 5 Senate seats in states that Biden in 20 won by 3 points or less. Rs aren't defending any in states Trump lost or won <3
That reflects a fundamental imbalance. Each side now dominates the Senate seats in the 25 states its presidential nominee won in 2020. But Biden won six states by 3 or less, compared to just 1 for Trump (NC). Even extending the net to 5 pts only adds 1 more narrow Trump state, FL
Read 9 tweets
Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Feb 11
Stephen Miller on the Trump deportation plan: "So you build these facilities where then you're able to say, you know, hypothetically, three times a day are the flights back to Mexico. Two times a day are the flights back to the Northern Triangle, right.
Miller: "On Monday and Friday are the flights back to different African countries, right. On Thursday & Sunday are the flights back to different Asian countries. So you create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly"
Miller: "Then in terms of personnel, you go to the red state governors and you say, give us your National Guard. We will deputize them as immigration enforcement officers. They know their states, they know their communities, they know their cities."
Read 8 tweets
Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Feb 10
To round up migrants, Miller said, Trump would dispatch forces to “go around the country arresting illegal immigrants in large-scale raids.” Then, it would build “large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in TX,” to serve as internment camps for migrants
From these camps, admin would schedule constant flights returning migrants to their home countries. Miller: “You create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly, probably military aircraft, some existing DHS assets"
To staff this plan, Miller said a Trump administration would reassign personnel from other federal law-enforcement agencies such as ATF & DEA, “deputize” local police and sheriffs and requisition National Guard troops
Read 9 tweets
Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Dec 3, 2023
Both states have claims. But Hannity focused entirely on measures that favor FL (unemployment, violent-crime rate & homelessness) while ignoring all favoring CA-median income, health insurance, much lower rates of teen birth/infant mortality/firearm deaths, more life expectancy
Hannity essentially joined in a tag team w/DeSantis to frame the debate in terms familiar to his Fox audience that blue states are a chaotic hellhole of crime & "woke" liberalism.
The narrow focus on California and Florida made sense in a debate between their two governors. But those comparisons can obscure the bigger story, which is the expanding divergence between all the states in the red and blue sections.
Read 9 tweets

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