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Ronald Brownstein Profile picture
Ronald Brownstein
@RonBrownstein
Brownstein, a 2-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, is a senior editor @ The Atlantic, a senior CNN political analyst & author of NYT best-seller Rock Me on the Water
6 subscribers
Sep 24 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Polling by @teemoneyusa has found: ~2/3 of GOP voters say “women are too easily offended,” ~3/5 say “most women interpret innocent remarks or acts as being sexist,” 7/10 say “society seems to punish men just for acting like men." NYT/Siena today finds those R attitudes persisting Most Republicans in that @teemoneyusa poll also agreed that “there is full equality for women in work, life and politics,” and most agreed that they were “more comfortable with women having traditional roles in society such as caring for children and family.”
Jun 6 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The willingness of so many Rs, across the GOP spectrum, to unreservedly echo Trump’s denunciation of his conviction shows that the flickers of independence that flashed during his 1st term have been virtually extinguished nearing a possible 2nd. My take. theatlantic.com/politics/archi… GOP elected officials are aligning obediently behind Trump even as numerous signs suggest that the Supreme Court’s Republican-appointed majority, and other GOP-appointed judges in the federal courts, may be more willing than in his first term to openly defend and enable him
Jun 2 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Trump plans that could most supercharge inflation start w/sweeping tariffs. New @PIIE study found tariffs would raise prices for consumers on the goods they purchase by $500 billion a year, or ~ $1,700 annually for a middle-income family. The cost for consumers could be about twice as high if domestic manufacturers increase their own prices on the goods that compete with imports, said @kclausing, one of the study's co-authors
Apr 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Trump to @TIME: Trump has sought to recast an insurrectionist riot as an act of patriotism. “I call them the J-6 patriots,” he says. When I ask whether he would consider pardoning every one of them, he says, “Yes, absolutely.” he suggests Biden’s fate may be tied to an upcoming #SCOTUS ruling on whether Presidents can face criminal prosecution for acts committed in office. “If they said that a President doesn’t get immunity,” says Trump, “then Biden, I am sure, will be prosecuted for all of his crimes”
Mar 21 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Among other lightning rod provisions @RepublicanStudy calls for repealing Medicare authority to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices, cap out of pocket drug spending for seniors, force rebates when drug cos increase prices faster than inflation & cut insulin price to $35 "Biden & Congressional Dems have embraced socialist price controls that will limit access to life-saving drugs....As part of the full repeal of the disastrous IRA, the RSC Budget would ensure continued access to these life-saving treatments by removing these price controls"
Mar 7 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Trump mostly frames the race as a comparison b/twn their terms, arguing he left US in great shape & Biden derailed it. Biden has plenty to shoot at vs that argument, but multiple D strategists told me it'd be a mistake for Biden to claim success while so many are struggling @davidaxelrod "I don’t think you want to argue about whether you are better off in those [Trump] years or these years. You want to argue about who will help you be better off in the future, and what you have to do to make people better off in the future.”
Feb 12 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Democrats face a dangerous convergence: The party must defend an unusually large number of seats in terrain that is highly contested at the presidential level precisely as Biden is struggling in polls against Trump In Nov, Dems are defending 3 Senate seats in states where Trump beat Biden in 2020 (OH/MT/WV). Those have received much attention. But Dems are also defending 5 Senate seats in states that Biden in 20 won by 3 points or less. Rs aren't defending any in states Trump lost or won <3
Feb 11 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Stephen Miller on the Trump deportation plan: "So you build these facilities where then you're able to say, you know, hypothetically, three times a day are the flights back to Mexico. Two times a day are the flights back to the Northern Triangle, right. Miller: "On Monday and Friday are the flights back to different African countries, right. On Thursday & Sunday are the flights back to different Asian countries. So you create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly"
Feb 10 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
To round up migrants, Miller said, Trump would dispatch forces to “go around the country arresting illegal immigrants in large-scale raids.” Then, it would build “large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in TX,” to serve as internment camps for migrants From these camps, admin would schedule constant flights returning migrants to their home countries. Miller: “You create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly, probably military aircraft, some existing DHS assets"
Dec 3, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Both states have claims. But Hannity focused entirely on measures that favor FL (unemployment, violent-crime rate & homelessness) while ignoring all favoring CA-median income, health insurance, much lower rates of teen birth/infant mortality/firearm deaths, more life expectancy Hannity essentially joined in a tag team w/DeSantis to frame the debate in terms familiar to his Fox audience that blue states are a chaotic hellhole of crime & "woke" liberalism.
Sep 25, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A cottage industry has developed claiming a massive realignment away from Ds among non-college non-white voters centered on cultural issues. Today's new @Univision poll, which they say has largest Latino sample in 23, challenges those claims. @LeonKrauze All data sources agree Trump & GOP gained w/non-col nonwhites, especially Latinos, from 16 to 20. But Rs generally didn't progress further w/Latinos, esp in SW, in 22. And this massive @Univision poll shows them still facing substantial resistance despite discontent over economy
Jun 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The GOP-appointed justices have moved to buttress the affluence & status that allow white people to wield the most influence in society & to diminish the possibility that accelerating demographic change will force a renegotiation of that balance of power. #affirmativeaction In that way, the ruling is a judicial extension of the proliferating red-state laws meant to constrain the potential influence of younger generations thru measures making it more difficult to vote, banning books, and censoring how teachers talk about race and gender inequities
Jun 20, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
In new @CNN poll, post-indictment Trump support in primary is down to just 27% of White college+ Rs. 70% of them say GOP has better chance w/a different nominee. But Trump's still at 56% support w/non-college Rs. If he can hold anything like that he'll be very hard to beat. But.. Among all col+ White voters in @CNN poll, 69% support indictment; 65% said Trump's behavior was illegal, 64% said he put national security at risk, 66% say he should end his campaign now & another 12% say he should withdraw if convicted.
Jun 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
As the lines between red/blue harden both across & within states, & fewer Congressional candidates win on terrain that usually back the other side for president, majorities in the House & Senate are shrinking & shifts in control are growing more frequent. The paradoxical impact of more sorting and stability in the electorate is more instability in Congress, as the two sides trade narrow and fragile majorities.
May 16, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Whites w/out a college degree ran closer to their 18 turnout than college+ whites or minority voters. Yet those non-col whites still cast less of total 22 vote than they in 2020, 18/16/14 b/c their share of the total eligible voter pool kept declining-as it has since 70s That signals whites w/out a college degree, GOP's best group, are likely to represent about 2 percentage points less of all voters in '24 than 20 & ~4 points less than 16 when Trump won. Doesn't mean he can't win again: but it does make the hill slightly steeper each time.
May 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Across GOP-controlled states, Rs are using statewide power rooted in their dominance of nonmetropolitan areas to pass an aggressive agenda preempting authority from their largest cities across a wide range of issues and imposing cultural values largely rejected in those cities Several red states are also now targeting public universities central to the blue metro success with laws banning diversity, equity, and inclusion programs and proposals to eliminate tenure for professors.
Apr 25, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Given his persistently low approval #s, "to win reelection, Biden likely will need to win an unusually large share of voters who are at least somewhat unhappy over conditions in the country and ambivalent or worse about giving him another term. Historically that hasn’t been easy" For those who think Biden can break that pattern, last November’s midterm election offers the proof of concept. 55% of voters disapproved of his performance & 3/4 said economy was in bad shape. Yet Ds overperformed, especially in swing states like MI/PA/WI/AZ
Apr 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"The Crow company bought the properties for $133,363 from three co-owners — Thomas, his mother and the family of Thomas’ late brother, according to a state tax document and a deed dated Oct. 15, 2014, filed at the Chatham County courthouse" "Soon after the sale was completed, contractors began work on tens of thousands of dollars of improvements...[including] a carport, a repaired roof and a new fence and gates, according to city permit records and blueprints."
Apr 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
TN Rs took the red state attack on urban political power to a new peak w/their vote. The expulsions went beyond making structural changes to diminish the power of big-city residents, to entirely erasing those voters’ decision on whom they want to represent them in the legislature Similarly, red state are preempting prosecutor & policing powers of blue metros in GA/MS/MO/FL/TN/TX & more. But @GregAbbott_TX raised this to a new level by preemptively announcing he would approve a pardon for a man convicted of killing a #BLM protester just 1 day before
Jan 27, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
On every front the environment is even less hospitable today than it was during Obama’s presidency for the kind of budget deal that House Republicans are now demanding in order to raise the debt ceiling. Although Obama’s team and many congressional Democrats genuinely believed that a big long-term deficit-reduction plan was both good politics and good economics, Biden, as well as most congressional Democrats today, are much more skeptical of that proposition.
Jan 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The GOP #SCOTUS majority is again key to this process. It has already shelved 2 key tools vs gerrymanders by ending Justice Dep't pre-clearance & blocking fed lawsuits vs. partisan lines. Now it could further limit Voting Rights cases & hobble (or ban) state Supreme Court review In near-term #SCOTUS would mostly help Rs. Long-term impact is creating more districts where pols pick their voters not the other way around. "The alarming thing is you are taking the voters out of the equation," says former NRCC chair Tom Davis.