Brownstein, a 2-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, is a senior editor @ The Atlantic, a senior CNN political analyst & author of NYT best-seller Rock Me on the Water
Feb 12 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Democrats face a dangerous convergence: The party must defend an unusually large number of seats in terrain that is highly contested at the presidential level precisely as Biden is struggling in polls against Trump
In Nov, Dems are defending 3 Senate seats in states where Trump beat Biden in 2020 (OH/MT/WV). Those have received much attention. But Dems are also defending 5 Senate seats in states that Biden in 20 won by 3 points or less. Rs aren't defending any in states Trump lost or won <3
Feb 11 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Stephen Miller on the Trump deportation plan: "So you build these facilities where then you're able to say, you know, hypothetically, three times a day are the flights back to Mexico. Two times a day are the flights back to the Northern Triangle, right.
Miller: "On Monday and Friday are the flights back to different African countries, right. On Thursday & Sunday are the flights back to different Asian countries. So you create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly"
Feb 10 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
To round up migrants, Miller said, Trump would dispatch forces to “go around the country arresting illegal immigrants in large-scale raids.” Then, it would build “large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in TX,” to serve as internment camps for migrants
From these camps, admin would schedule constant flights returning migrants to their home countries. Miller: “You create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly, probably military aircraft, some existing DHS assets"
Dec 3, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Both states have claims. But Hannity focused entirely on measures that favor FL (unemployment, violent-crime rate & homelessness) while ignoring all favoring CA-median income, health insurance, much lower rates of teen birth/infant mortality/firearm deaths, more life expectancy
Hannity essentially joined in a tag team w/DeSantis to frame the debate in terms familiar to his Fox audience that blue states are a chaotic hellhole of crime & "woke" liberalism.
Sep 25, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A cottage industry has developed claiming a massive realignment away from Ds among non-college non-white voters centered on cultural issues. Today's new @Univision poll, which they say has largest Latino sample in 23, challenges those claims. @LeonKrauze
All data sources agree Trump & GOP gained w/non-col nonwhites, especially Latinos, from 16 to 20. But Rs generally didn't progress further w/Latinos, esp in SW, in 22. And this massive @Univision poll shows them still facing substantial resistance despite discontent over economy
Jun 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The GOP-appointed justices have moved to buttress the affluence & status that allow white people to wield the most influence in society & to diminish the possibility that accelerating demographic change will force a renegotiation of that balance of power. #affirmativeaction
In that way, the ruling is a judicial extension of the proliferating red-state laws meant to constrain the potential influence of younger generations thru measures making it more difficult to vote, banning books, and censoring how teachers talk about race and gender inequities
Jun 20, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
In new @CNN poll, post-indictment Trump support in primary is down to just 27% of White college+ Rs. 70% of them say GOP has better chance w/a different nominee. But Trump's still at 56% support w/non-college Rs. If he can hold anything like that he'll be very hard to beat. But..
Among all col+ White voters in @CNN poll, 69% support indictment; 65% said Trump's behavior was illegal, 64% said he put national security at risk, 66% say he should end his campaign now & another 12% say he should withdraw if convicted.
Jun 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
As the lines between red/blue harden both across & within states, & fewer Congressional candidates win on terrain that usually back the other side for president, majorities in the House & Senate are shrinking & shifts in control are growing more frequent.
The paradoxical impact of more sorting and stability in the electorate is more instability in Congress, as the two sides trade narrow and fragile majorities.
May 16, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Whites w/out a college degree ran closer to their 18 turnout than college+ whites or minority voters. Yet those non-col whites still cast less of total 22 vote than they in 2020, 18/16/14 b/c their share of the total eligible voter pool kept declining-as it has since 70s
That signals whites w/out a college degree, GOP's best group, are likely to represent about 2 percentage points less of all voters in '24 than 20 & ~4 points less than 16 when Trump won. Doesn't mean he can't win again: but it does make the hill slightly steeper each time.
May 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Across GOP-controlled states, Rs are using statewide power rooted in their dominance of nonmetropolitan areas to pass an aggressive agenda preempting authority from their largest cities across a wide range of issues and imposing cultural values largely rejected in those cities
Several red states are also now targeting public universities central to the blue metro success with laws banning diversity, equity, and inclusion programs and proposals to eliminate tenure for professors.
Apr 25, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Given his persistently low approval #s, "to win reelection, Biden likely will need to win an unusually large share of voters who are at least somewhat unhappy over conditions in the country and ambivalent or worse about giving him another term. Historically that hasn’t been easy"
For those who think Biden can break that pattern, last November’s midterm election offers the proof of concept. 55% of voters disapproved of his performance & 3/4 said economy was in bad shape. Yet Ds overperformed, especially in swing states like MI/PA/WI/AZ
Apr 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"The Crow company bought the properties for $133,363 from three co-owners — Thomas, his mother and the family of Thomas’ late brother, according to a state tax document and a deed dated Oct. 15, 2014, filed at the Chatham County courthouse"
"Soon after the sale was completed, contractors began work on tens of thousands of dollars of improvements...[including] a carport, a repaired roof and a new fence and gates, according to city permit records and blueprints."
Apr 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
TN Rs took the red state attack on urban political power to a new peak w/their vote. The expulsions went beyond making structural changes to diminish the power of big-city residents, to entirely erasing those voters’ decision on whom they want to represent them in the legislature
Similarly, red state are preempting prosecutor & policing powers of blue metros in GA/MS/MO/FL/TN/TX & more. But @GregAbbott_TX raised this to a new level by preemptively announcing he would approve a pardon for a man convicted of killing a #BLM protester just 1 day before
Jan 27, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
On every front the environment is even less hospitable today than it was during Obama’s presidency for the kind of budget deal that House Republicans are now demanding in order to raise the debt ceiling.
Although Obama’s team and many congressional Democrats genuinely believed that a big long-term deficit-reduction plan was both good politics and good economics, Biden, as well as most congressional Democrats today, are much more skeptical of that proposition.
Jan 24, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The GOP #SCOTUS majority is again key to this process. It has already shelved 2 key tools vs gerrymanders by ending Justice Dep't pre-clearance & blocking fed lawsuits vs. partisan lines. Now it could further limit Voting Rights cases & hobble (or ban) state Supreme Court review
In near-term #SCOTUS would mostly help Rs. Long-term impact is creating more districts where pols pick their voters not the other way around. "The alarming thing is you are taking the voters out of the equation," says former NRCC chair Tom Davis.
Nov 24, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The House GOP majority has signaled its investigative agenda will channel the preoccupations of the former president and his die-hard base of supporters.
But it has set this course immediately after a midterm election in which voters outside the core conservative states sent an unmistakable signal of their own by repeatedly rejecting Trump-backed candidates in high-profile senate and gubernatorial races.
Nov 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In Democratic-leaning & swing states, voters last week delivered an unmistakable cry of resistance to the restrictive GOP social agenda symbolized by the drive to ban abortion.
But in red states where Republicans have actually imposed that agenda over the past two years, GOP governors cruised to reelection without any discernible backlash.
Nov 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
That coalition of young voters, people of color, college-educated white voters and women frayed at its edges. And because Ds began w/so little margin for error, that erosion—combined w/high GOP turnout—seemed likely to let GOP take the House & possibly the Senate as well.
But even if the GOP does squeeze out majorities in one or both chambers, its margins will be exceedingly narrow. Voter dissatisfaction w/Biden’s performance meant that Ds faced losses, but continuing unease about the Trump-era GOP lowered the ceiling on its gains
Nov 7, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
One key variable: can Ds continue to over perform history w/voters who are mixed or negative on Biden. That's a key issue in top Senate races, where Biden is usually around 38-44% approval. Not many Senate candidates since 2000 have won w/a prez of their party that weak. But..
Generally polls have Senate Ds winning a higher % than we've seen of voters who disapprove of the president from their party. And the generic Congressional ballot continues to send unusual signals, as in Sunday's @NBCNews, which had the two parties ~even, tho Biden at 44% approve
Aug 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
New detail on Congress vote via @POStrategies in latest NBC poll shows, at this point, very dif envt than last 3 waves. In 10/14/18 party that made big House gains led among voters POS defines as persuadable by 7-8 pts. Rs were +6 w/persuadables in early 22. Now Ds are +3
Also very different: in 10 GOP led both among whites are evangelicals and those who are not. Now GOP holds enormous 76 point lead w/evangelicals but trails by six among all other whites. Ds also even w/white independents who strongly preferred Rs in their 10/14 sweeps & Ds in 18
Jul 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Realignment camp is right GOP has improved vote share among non-college voters of color from ~1/6 in 12 to 1/4 in 20. And Biden is scuffling w/them now. The big questions are whether Rs can keep growing & whether that's a l/t shift on values or s/t change based mostly on economy?
Many analysts agree GOP floor w/Latinos is up b/c more of those who always id'd as conservative now feel comfortable voting R. Realignment camp says Ds must respond by rejecting "woke" left on culture, but others say the problem is moderates blocking an eco agenda Latinos like