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David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
@DavidTaggart
Sep 14, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
1/ After accelerating a bit around Labor Day, our US Mobility Composite has been declining again. The trend is still up but we are still down over -45% from "normal" levels. So not exactly awesome Image
2/ TSA throughput has been flat for a while. We get spikes around holidays (4th of July and Labor Day) as the people who I guess just dgaf go on flights, but no one else does.

TSA is still -67% YoY with the best day so far being down "only -55.95%. Image
3/make of that what you will. We expect higher case counts in the coming wks but are less sure about higher death counts to follow. School and the sports that come with that are back in to some degree so counts will go up. But the young are resistant to death so we'll see
4/good times.

xoxo

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More from @DavidTaggart

David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
Jan 16, 2022
1/I read a book a few weeks ago called "The Art Of Execution" by Lee Freeman-Shor.

I didn't agree with him on everything but I did more often than not. And there was one very important truth in there.

Here are some notes-mostly my words but a few direct sentences
2/-Be a killer-my words for sure but something I am trying to be more and mroe by the day. If it helps say "WWWEB do" cause WarrenB is every bit the financial gangster that WarrenG claimed to be on the streets. (if you dont get the reference then you are clearly no Regulator)
3/By be a killer I mean make the right decision and just do it. We know that emotions are the #1 return killer...and yet how active do you fight the dumb ones? Also stocks dont know who you are. You owe them nothing.
Read 23 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
Sep 16, 2021
An update to the classic "what happens if you miss the 10 best days in the market" where advisors tell you that "it is not timing the market but time IN the market that matters"

But here we show the other side where you can also miss the 10 WORST days in the market.
All of this is just using the SPY ETF from 3/1/93-9/16/21

B&H=909.87%
Miss the 10 WORST days=2321.47%
Miss the 10 BEST days=356.96%
I will post the SP500 later going WAY farther back-would include 1987 for instance-but the results are telling.
Read 12 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
Feb 7, 2021
Here is how the SPY-SP500 ETF has done with simple OHLC based strategies since its inception
Same strats since the GFC bottom
Here is the history of holding intraday.
Read 5 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
Oct 2, 2020
I have only done #FF a few times in my decade plus on this site. Today I will highlight some sub-5k accts that should be way over 5k.

@jaykaeppel

Comes up with more system ideas per day than maybe anyone alive, and many you would never think of. Blogs for free.
@jaykaeppel @jpicerno

I read his great book "Nowcastng the Business Cycle" years ago. Blogs for free. Has a service.

@MagnusMacro

Smart dude. Good discussion. Good pics of food.

@macrotool

Smart dude. When he posts about markets and what he is testing you want to pay attention.
@jaykaeppel @jpicerno @MagnusMacro @macrotool @SamuelRines

Does a great daily letter. Smart dude.

@jam_croissant

Options person. Smarter than most of us. Had an interview with Meb the other day. Go listen and then follow.
Read 8 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020
1/one thing the fundamental people can learn from the technical people is the art of trend following and mean reversion as it pertains to having a rules based way to try and get better entries and stick with the position as long as you can.
2/if you want to be WarrenB 2.0 with lower drawdowns then you might want to read a bunch about the CTA/managed futures/LTTF crowd and how they run their systems. A LOT of value there imo. If you have the tendency to want to close out profits this can help you ride that trend
3/st mean reversion is not a bad way to get better entries or even better add on buys/shorts. You know the momentum lit that looks at 12m momo and then buys a month later? That is because there is a reversion factor in there.
Read 9 tweets
David Taggart-PDMacro.com Profile picture
Sep 19, 2020
Politics
1-Those guys over there are doing a power move and they are corrupt and the sky is falling in. Theyre Hitler
2-Those guys over there did a power move last time and they are corrupt and we are saving the sky. Theyre Hitler

Repeat these convos everytime they switch power
1-no no no this time we are serious they really are Hitler.

2-yeah yeah yeah they are Hitler

Any genuinely neutral outside observer "damn is everyone named Hitler around here?"
idk there are legit issues in our politics and policies but damn everyone is blind to what their own parties do when they are in power.

Speaking of both parties. Cocaine Mitch is not a great person. Harry Reid was not a great person.
Read 9 tweets

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