1/I read a book a few weeks ago called "The Art Of Execution" by Lee Freeman-Shor.

I didn't agree with him on everything but I did more often than not. And there was one very important truth in there.

Here are some notes-mostly my words but a few direct sentences 2/-Be a killer-my words for sure but something I am trying to be more and mroe by the day. If it helps say "WWWEB do" cause WarrenB is every bit the financial gangster that WarrenG claimed to be on the streets. (if you dont get the reference then you are clearly no Regulator)

An update to the classic "what happens if you miss the 10 best days in the market" where advisors tell you that "it is not timing the market but time IN the market that matters"

But here we show the other side where you can also miss the 10 WORST days in the market. All of this is just using the SPY ETF from 3/1/93-9/16/21

B&H=909.87%
Miss the 10 WORST days=2321.47%
Miss the 10 BEST days=356.96%

Here is how the SPY-SP500 ETF has done with simple OHLC based strategies since its inception Same strats since the GFC bottom

I have only done #FF a few times in my decade plus on this site. Today I will highlight some sub-5k accts that should be way over 5k.

@jaykaeppel

Comes up with more system ideas per day than maybe anyone alive, and many you would never think of. Blogs for free. @jaykaeppel @jpicerno

I read his great book "Nowcastng the Business Cycle" years ago. Blogs for free. Has a service.

@MagnusMacro

Smart dude. Good discussion. Good pics of food.

@macrotool

Smart dude. When he posts about markets and what he is testing you want to pay attention.

1/one thing the fundamental people can learn from the technical people is the art of trend following and mean reversion as it pertains to having a rules based way to try and get better entries and stick with the position as long as you can. 2/if you want to be WarrenB 2.0 with lower drawdowns then you might want to read a bunch about the CTA/managed futures/LTTF crowd and how they run their systems. A LOT of value there imo. If you have the tendency to want to close out profits this can help you ride that trend

Politics
1-Those guys over there are doing a power move and they are corrupt and the sky is falling in. Theyre Hitler
2-Those guys over there did a power move last time and they are corrupt and we are saving the sky. Theyre Hitler

Repeat these convos everytime they switch power 1-no no no this time we are serious they really are Hitler.

2-yeah yeah yeah they are Hitler

Any genuinely neutral outside observer "damn is everyone named Hitler around here?"

Pretty sure Bill Gurley is in the other room throwing up right now

you dont get moves like this with a boring direct listing

If you have a podcast PLEASE listen to it on headphones before sending it out. If your sound sucks then youre wasting your time cause no one will listen to it.

Good mic-$100ish
Pop Filter $10-30

That will get you to 95%+ quality. A sound editor can do more but that is the min Here is my setup. A mic and the pop filter. I also have my mic on an arm so that i can touch my desk without extra noise. But you don't need that and its only like $15-30

1/ After accelerating a bit around Labor Day, our US Mobility Composite has been declining again. The trend is still up but we are still down over -45% from "normal" levels. So not exactly awesome 2/ TSA throughput has been flat for a while. We get spikes around holidays (4th of July and Labor Day) as the people who I guess just dgaf go on flights, but no one else does.

TSA is still -67% YoY with the best day so far being down "only -55.95%.

1/Our mobility index. Opentable data+TSA+Google Workplace

Workplace ramped up the last week and for a few days Opentable was ramping as well. But two days ago Opentable went from -18.92 back to -58.76. We will see how the next week or 2 come in. 2/ This chart is the Google Workplace minus Residential. It looks like a ton of people are still WFH and it doesn't seem to be budging much at all over the last almost three months.

Worth watching

Would be kinda awesome if this was "the top"

Probably wont be and we blast to new highs in a week or three but it would be the best broadening top/megaphone ever I mean valuations came into this in the 99th percentile

It's ok out here i guess Some more

Sadly, because wildlife tourism is how they fund the bulk of the anti-poaching and other animal conservation projects they could potentially go from hurting really bad to being hurt for 5-10+ years forward.

Donating to groups in the space is not the worst thing to do.

https://twitter.com/BBGAfrica/status/1290964865226551296

these groups not only save elephants and gorillas but employ and feed the local communities

If youre one of my 5-10 followers who always fly private and have not done a safari lately....you don't get the rona on your own jet. The summer trip to Idaho got cancelled. Go to Africa

Tik Tok-amazing how many people in the USA do not understand that China doesn't allow ANY of our social media and very few of our internet platforms go into China AT ALL.

They don't play the fair game, the app is basically a full time hacker, and they censor it.

#FtheCCP If Trump doesn't ban it I hope someone else does. CCP consistently treats us as an adversary. We need to counter it more consistently.

Also F Russia. But that should already be a given. They meddle in both parties ALOT and are antisemitic to boot. F them.

"When we make presentations, I carry a copy of Graham's Security Analysis with me. I gave it to my three-year-old to play with to make it look thumbed."
-Jim the Trigger "Once in a while, you get into one that deserves to be undervalued and it goes bankrupt, but that just shows you're in the game. Like an injury in football."
-Jim

Every time I reread Superforecasting, or even look at the book on my desk, I think of how sadly being a good speaker or writer influences people more than providing actual value. You NEVER have to be right as long as you "sound" smart.

Slick>Accuracy

and it is not even close Something @retail_risk said, and I cant get it 100% because he deleted his acct but this is close enough-

"the #1 mind hack to get rich is to have ZERO shame"

too many people take this to heart. But really having a little bit of shame makes you a non-shit of a human.