Clearly, the words physicians use have
a critical function in this communication
Referring to harms as “risks” emphasizes that
the unfavorable outcome may or may not happen,
whereas there is no parallel language that highlights
the equally probabilistic nature of “benefits.”
1) The unvaccinated are the biggest victims--99% of COVID deaths are unvaccinated
They put themselves at the most risk--much more than they harm me
We don't punish IVDU or prostitutes for the HIV epidemic although they spread an infectious agent
2) People not vaccinated are misinformed by the media, by celebrities and largely because of the failure of the deeply unequal US Education System that set them up to not know how to navigate these confusing times and evaluate information
The current question was similar but for TREATMENT
In the works, are numeracy, acceptance of uncertainty and other clinician personality factors associated with decisions?
2/🧵
Appreciate past interest from @tylercowen on probability in diagnosis.
In some ways, economists like him and @profemilyoster or statisticians like @natesilver538 have a better framework than doctors for assessing real life data, risk and tradeoffs
This is the most relevant paper I have written. Not perfect but addresses a huge issue I think could change medicine if acknowledged
…it has changed how I think about diagnosis
summary:
Clinicians widely overestimated chance of disease especially after testing
Cardiac ischemia after + ECG—EBM 2-11%, median answer 70%
UTI after + urine cx—EBM 0-8.3%, answer 80%
Breast CA after + mammo—EBM 3-9%, answer 50%
Pneumonia after + CXR EBM 46-65%, answer 95%
Gerd Gigerenzer, David Eddy, @StevenWoloshin@arjunmanrai & others asked how well doctors do at the math of understanding diagnosis, and found they aren’t great.