Dan Morgan Profile picture
Sep 15, 2020 8 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Catch yourself when you say “risks vs. benefits” because you aren’t making a fair comparison.

In @JAMA_current ja.ma/336Lj4Y
& podcast ja.ma/2FAGKI2

@eliowa @drjohnm @d_spiegel @zeynep @VPrasadMDMPH

Why we say it and what we think is better below...
This building block of clinical decisions biases by framing uncertain harm vs. certain benefits and nudges towards treatment

Written with
@DKorenstein @ldscherer
(Over 2 years, i'm embarrassed to admit)
Clearly, the words physicians use have
a critical function in this communication

Referring to harms as “risks” emphasizes that
the unfavorable outcome may or may not happen,
whereas there is no parallel language that highlights
the equally probabilistic nature of “benefits.”
The language we use changes patient decisions

#ebm and #grade emphasize harms & benefits @dnunan79

Shared decision making requires accurate information for patients
@vmontori @RichardLehman1
Why we say "Risks vs. Benefits"?

Informed consent law based on "degree of harm" vs. "potential benefit"->GOOD

Important @US_FDA Kefauver-Harris amendment requiring drug efficacy
"expected benefits outweigh its potential risks"
->BAD

R v. B proliferated since 1960s
Who gains from "risks vs. benefits"?
Huge boon for #pharma
Makes healthcare look better than it is and therefore helps the entire industry

Who looses?
Patients misinformed about treatments who have harms, excessive costs (@RosenthalHealth ), & society who funds healthcare
What is better?

Communicate probability as all medicine is understanding & optimizing chances--like poker per @mkonnikova

Compare apples to apples, not oranges

"CHANCE OF HARMS VS. CHANCE OF BENEFITS"

standard language for physicians, scientific journals, and policy makers
So, catch yourself when saying "risks vs. benefits" and replace with "Chance of harms vs. chance of benefits"

This little change over thousands of conversations can make medicine more transparent, egalitarian, scientific and ultimately is #precisionmedicine

Thanks

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More from @dr_dmorgan

Feb 28, 2023
Principles of diagnostic stewardship: A practical guide is out

1st in a series from the @SHEA_Epi task force
bit.ly/41wDRgC

Endorsed by @IDSAInfo @APIC @SIDPharm @SocietyHospMed

Diagnostic Stewardship is a exciting new concept, here are some highlights...

1/n
Although Diagnostic Stewardship (DxSt) has been described BEFORE, and supported by @CDCgov
there are many details that needed to be addressed.
ja.ma/3SDdWjf
academic.oup.com/cid/article/74…
Great working w/ this writing team
@dan_diekema @mhayde2 @asicksamuels Image
Read 16 tweets
Jan 10, 2022
1/The hyperbolic, black/white, strawman COVID19 arguments are really getting me down. They feel like the broken part of America/ the world

Seems either partisan side must adhere or be canceled / threatened w/ violence.

The solution is some middle that adjusts to changing facts
2/ Recent tag by @drjohnm on a @VPrasadMDMPH comment that flu = covid19 in children emphasized this

Covid WAS worse than flu in 2020 because worldwide shutdown stopped flu

but Covid NO WORSE than USUAL flu year for kids

But flu and covid ARE BAD in some kids which is TRAGIC
3/ But that does NOT mean we should ignore true harms of closing schools (which is worse on the poor, women, POC etc)

Or pretend that closing schools has good data supporting, or pretend Kids in N95s has any data
Read 7 tweets
Sep 13, 2021
As a vaccinated, liberal infectious disease doctor, who believes virtually all US adults should be vaccinated...

I'm bothered by people blaming the unvaccinated for the ongoing pandemic

There are a few reasons:

@sdbaral @VPrasadMDMPH
1) The unvaccinated are the biggest victims--99% of COVID deaths are unvaccinated

They put themselves at the most risk--much more than they harm me

We don't punish IVDU or prostitutes for the HIV epidemic although they spread an infectious agent
2) People not vaccinated are misinformed by the media, by celebrities and largely because of the failure of the deeply unequal US Education System that set them up to not know how to navigate these confusing times and evaluate information
Read 10 tweets
Aug 9, 2021
Do doctors understand how well treatments work?

We asked >500 clinicians in 8 US states

Chance that common treatments help an individual patient with
atrial fibrillation
hypertension
high cholesterol
osteoporosis

Open access: ja.ma/3A1u7N4 via @JAMANetwork

1/🧵
Recently we examined clinician understanding of probability in DIAGNOSIS

The current question was similar but for TREATMENT

In the works, are numeracy, acceptance of uncertainty and other clinician personality factors associated with decisions?

2/🧵
Appreciate past interest from @tylercowen on probability in diagnosis.
In some ways, economists like him and @profemilyoster or statisticians like @natesilver538 have a better framework than doctors for assessing real life data, risk and tradeoffs

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
3/🧵
Read 56 tweets
Apr 12, 2021
How good are doctors at diagnosis?

This is the most relevant paper I have written. Not perfect but addresses a huge issue I think could change medicine if acknowledged
…it has changed how I think about diagnosis

ja.ma/3rQNtjv
@JAMAInternalMed
@drjohnm
1/n
summary:
Clinicians widely overestimated chance of disease especially after testing

Cardiac ischemia after + ECG—EBM 2-11%, median answer 70%
UTI after + urine cx—EBM 0-8.3%, answer 80%
Breast CA after + mammo—EBM 3-9%, answer 50%
Pneumonia after + CXR EBM 46-65%, answer 95%
Gerd Gigerenzer, David Eddy, @StevenWoloshin @arjunmanrai & others asked how well doctors do at the math of understanding diagnosis, and found they aren’t great.

Many of issues w/ real life tests covered by @deeksj @d_spiegel @dan_diekema
Read 20 tweets
Jan 8, 2021
Like @BenMazer, I was bummed to have a op-ed during the riot

In it, I describe the reality that most medical treatments have very marginal effects.

A reality with big implications

d/w @VPrasadMDMPH @lowninstitute @AndrewFoy82 @drjohnm

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
1/
2/ If clinicians understood small chance of benefit with most Rx, I feel we would make very different decisions for most patients

Thanks @MikeMadden editor

By taking a medication daily we buy a lottery ticket with a payout often as low as 1% or 2%.
3/ And we can’t know if we won or not…as winning usually means "nothing" happens.

Of course, we assume no bad outcome = benefits,

so 95% or more appear to benefit, not the 1-2% who truly benefit from RCTs
Read 10 tweets

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