Shiv Sena has alienated 40% Hindi, Gujarati, Rajasthani, Tamil, Telugu and Kannada speaking voters of Mumbai.
The 35% Marathi voters are not backing them fully. A large chunk of middle class and upper middle class Marathi speaking voters is now abhorring the actions of Sena.
So what's the option now. Sena needs the 22% muslim voters of Mumbai (who are heavily ghettoized and therefore less effective despite their numbers) to retain their control of BMC.
Hence you wont hear any announcements about renaming Aurangabad to Sambhajinagar (old Sena demand)
Frankly they cannot afford to do that. Also Sena might need to ally with Congress and NCP to ensure the muslim votebank does not split and BJP does not go closer to majority.

So seems the Sena now needs Cong more in Mumbai and the NCP in surrounding MMR area
Well @RahulPalkar6 who has been following Mumbai politics closely for more than 3 decades now has a contrary opinion. He says that the Sena wont directly ally with Cong in BMC elections, as it may alienate its hindutva voter base. They may do informal tieup on seats with Cong
Whatever happens the Sena has run out of Marathi pride, Mumbai being cutoff from MH cards and are struggling to find an emotive card which wins. One thing is clear Sena cant go above 70 seats on it's own. It needs Cong, NCP, SP and even AIMIM or MNS (post poll)
While BJP has a good chance of winning near majority (114 wards mark) on its own. It needs to campaign on important matters for the city, not on Ladakh or article 370 as these are not important for a local body poll.
30 yrs of Sena misrule has created a ripe situation for change

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More from @MandarSawant184

20 Sep
#Prediction In 3-4 years time, many young/ middle aged professionals would have turned farmers after quitting their high paying jobs.
Practical approach. They would have earned decently to ensure their future. Going away from high stress jobs. Plus now the #FarmBills are approved
So they dont have to engage with the slimy political/ trader types one can expect to encounter in the APMCs. These people working in the corporate world would be more comfortable doing contract farming or creating their own linkages to sell their produce
In MH, this phenomenon would be mainly seen in Western MH where professionals working in Mumbai or Pune would love to return to their roots and lead a less hectic life (Not to say farming is an easy profession). The rest of the regions of MH could also see this trend
Read 5 tweets
25 Aug
Well as we speak sitting in August 2020, we are just 18 odd months away from the mega urban local body election easy in Maharashtra. Almost all big urban bodies have local elections in February 2022 including the Brihanmumbai Mahanagar Palika (BMC)
The last election in 2017 was pretty dramatic. BMC won almost all the local bodies including Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nagpur and Nashik municiplaities. The Sena somehow saved their face in their traditional forts of Mumbai and Thane.
The Sena looked like cruising to a huge victory in the BMC but by the late afternoon the BJP crafted a magnificant comeback and ended up winning 82 seats (its previous best 38 of course in alliance with the Sena unlike 2017). The Sena could garner just 84 seats and cling to power
Read 13 tweets
16 Aug
A new world order and alliances are taking shape. Eventually this may lead to #worldwar3 . The new Axis powers are being formed. Chinas Xitler is the new protagonist. He wants to make the Han Chinese the new master race.
Xitler's (Chinese prez Xi) ambitions have come out in the open in recent years. CCP has already chosen him as the president for life.
China has started conflicts with most of their neighbours on different borders, be it the Eastern front or the South China Sea. #worldwar3
Xitler's Mussolini is the wannabe Caliph Erdogan of Turkey. Erdogan has started of openly talking of his ambitions since the last few years. Though Erdogan is exactly like Mussolini, big talk but no matching strength on the ground. #worldwar3
Read 16 tweets
11 Aug
Happened to see a documentary on World War 2 (one of my favourite topic in history) on Netflix recently.

The episode on Stalingrad is so damn impressive. This was a battle that changed the course of the war. Nazis has much of Western and Eastern Europe under control.
But Hitler's stupid move to order siege of Stalingrad (mostly because of the city's name) contributed to fall of the third reich. Hitler wanted to capture the city to embarrass his opponent and fellow dictator Joseph Stalin. Also Stalin wanted the city defended at all costs
Check out the movie "Enemy at the Gates" to see the condition in which the urban warfare was done in that brutal campaign. Ego prevented Hitler from ordering withdrawal of his army, that was ravaged by the harsh Russian winter and encirclement by the red army
Read 7 tweets
18 Jul
Let me give you enabling factors and obstacles to this plausible option

Enabling factors:

1. Congress is the weakest and smallest partner of MVA. They are being constantly insulted by NCP and Sena. 2/3 of Congress MLAs (44) comes to 29 or 30. Hard to break 30 but it is best option
2. Ritesh Deshmukh had made some mysterious tweets days ago. Not sure if they are still there or deleted. Was he indicating that his 2 MLA brothers are thinking of shifting to the BJP?
Read 10 tweets
21 Feb
Compare the policies of Fadnavis and Uddhav. Fadnavis went by the adage " Teach a poor man to fish and he will learn how to feed his stomach for ever".

Fadnavis started work on the ambitious Mumbai metro network that inter-connects literally whole of Mumbai
The metro network also connects the various suburbs of Thane district like Kalyan, Dombivali, Mira Road, Bhayander to various parts of Mumbai. Infact, the best part is the metro connectivity along the Borivali-Thane Ghodbunder road that has seen huge population increase
So the Mumbaikar or Thanekar can beat the crowd local trains and heavy traffic to cut on his/her travel time and have a better quality of life. Multiple metro routes are also planned in Pune and Nagpur and are in multiple stages of execution. Some are functional as well
Read 29 tweets

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