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Tom Bollyky Profile picture
@TomBollyky
Sep 15, 2020 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#COVID19 has overwhelmed health systems & economies worldwide

But *if* remains at its current pace, it's unlikely to overtake cardiovascular disease, cancers, & other major NCDs as leading causes of death globally

New analysis @ThinkGlobalHlth @IHME_UW
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-h… Image
The case is closer in high-income countries where #COVID19 is the *6th* leading cause of death 2/

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-h… Image
The situation is worse than the average high-income country in the United States where #COVID19 is currently the 2nd leading cause of death 3/

Via @ThinkGlobalHlth @IHME_UW

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-h… Image
The region of Latin America/Caribbean is similar 4/

Via @ThinkGlobalHlth @IHME_UW

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-h… Image
Here is a great heat map of how #COVID19 ranks in each nation as a cause of death

Again, read the whole piece @ThinkGlobalHlth @IHME_UW 5/5

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/just-h… Image

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More from @TomBollyky

Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Oct 29, 2021
Developing safe & effective vaccine faster in a pandemic?

Helps but benefits only nations that can manufacture

Ensuring every region can make + administer vaccines as fast as rich nations?

Priceless.

Here's how via @JHSPH_CHS @JenniferNuzzo & me et al
bit.ly/3EwEA5n
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted some strengths and some significant gaps and weaknesses in this global pandemic R&D and response ecosystem 2/

centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publi…
On one hand, pre-pandemic research into mRNA vaccines & public investment in COVID-19 vx R&D paid off hugely

Not one but several highly effective COVID-19 vaccines were developed, trialed & brought to market in 1 year

Previous record was 4 years (mumps) 2/
h/t @OurWorldInData
Read 23 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Sep 24, 2021
Countries have pledged to donate 1.9B COVID vaccines but delivered 1.1B

@samckiernan @serena_tohme combed govt websites, COVAX docs & media reports to identify the 61 nations that have pledged, where doses are going & which nations have yet to deliver 1/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/billio…
The US has most outstanding, but that is misleading as President Biden just this week added 500m to US total pledged donation by 1.1B COVID vaccine doses

Team Europe on the other hand...
2/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/billio…
Team Europe (EU Norway + Iceland) added 50M to its total pledge of 500m COVID vaccine doses

While Team Europe has administered 561M doses at home, it's donated just 33.8M doses - 6.8% of total pledge

W/in Team Europe, Germany has most undelivered

UK hasn't been much better 3/
Read 11 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Jun 9, 2021
Maximizing potential benefit of vaccine donations depends on doses going where they can do the"most good" but there's no consensus on where that would be

Murray @IHME_UW @RCReinerJr & I propose an approach that prioritizes epidemiology over geopolitics 1/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
This week's summit in Cornwall, UK should be the time when G7 leaders finally act on their promises to send surplus COVID-19 vaccine supplies to the many other countries where they remain scarce #G7UK

But how will those vaccine donations be allocated? 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
COVAX has been criticized by @ZekeEmanuel @GovindPersad & others for its population-based allocation scheme that does not direct most of its early vaccine supplies to the settings at the greatest risk of otherwise having high COVID-19 death rates 3/
nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opi…
Read 9 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Mar 27, 2021
Recent US pledge of 2.5 M vaccine doses to Mexico is notable:

-It's the largest single bilateral pledge of doses so far in this crisis

- It's going to a nation in great need

- It came from a democracy

Here's me in @TheAtlantic on why that matters 1/
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
So far, 14 countries have donated a total of 22.5 million doses to 97 nations

Most donations outside of Asia-Pacific have been too small (150k doses or less) to meet local or global demands

2/
 thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…
Vaccine donations are distributing fewer doses than COVAX (22.5 million v. 32 million) but they are going to more countries (97 v. 60).

Yet, many of those donations are not going to the poorer nations most in need of doses 3/

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…
Read 8 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Jan 20, 2021
President-elect Biden has set a goal of vaccinating 100 million Americans (30% of the population) in 100 days.

It is an ambitious, achievable goal.

Here is what that will require, via @JenniferNuzzo, Sid Baccam @IEMNews, and me in the @nytimes 1/
nytimes.com/2021/01/20/opi…
Primary constraint on vaccinating more Americans so far has not been supply

Despite production shortfalls, US still distributed close to enough doses to vaccinate average of 1M people daily

Bigger hurdles have been administration & demand 2/
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Reaching 1 million people per day requires expanding beyond vaccinating small number of individuals on scheduled-basis to doing more mass vaccination

After 9/11, federal gov't thought through how to vaccinate many Americans in a short time 3/
liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.108…
Read 10 tweets
Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Dec 30, 2020
Good news! Vaccine is relatively cheap, easy to produce & store, well tolerated. 3B doses projected in 2021

Haven't seen submission or decision, but MHRA reportedly approved 2 dose regimen (62% effective) & is encouraging a 1-dose regimen to speed access
Results published in Lancet indicate say this a/b 1 dose regimen

It will be interesting to see public response and distribution strategy for regimen w/lower efficacy than Pfizer/Moderna options & uncertainty about duration of protection
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Apparently, Oxford/AstraZeneca has not even filed a submission package with EMA yet. FDA decision isn't coming soon either.

This is such an important vaccine for global access and so much is strange about how its sponsors have pursued it
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Read 4 tweets

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