Tom Bollyky Profile picture
Director of Global Health; Economics & Development @CFR_org. Founder @ThinkGlobalHlth. Law Prof sometimes. Dad (3x); book author (1x). Opinions=me; retweets=not
1 Jul 20
6 months into #COVID19, our best measures of pandemic preparedness have not been correlated w/fewer deaths

In fact, nations w/higher JEE, GHSI, and #UHC scores have had *higher* death rates, even accounting for age structure & timing of 1st case

why? 1/
#COVID19 has revealed that we don't yet understand how best to measure countries' capacity to respond effectively to severe pandemic threats

this admittedly wonky thread is based on new @ThinkGlobalHlth post looking at JEE, GHSI & #UHC in this pandemic 2/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/all-be…
First a bit of background on the different measures of pandemic preparedness 3/
Read 18 tweets
19 May 20
There is not a lot new in the President's latest letter on @WHO handling of the #COVID19 pandemic, sent ahead of second day of #WHA73

But there are few items worth noting, and I will conclude with what I see as major takeaways 1/
Notably, letter doesn't rely on any of the theories about the virus's origins (lab safety accident, bioweapon etc) that Trump administration officials have pushed in recent months

If there was "enormous evidence" you'd expect to see it referenced here 2/
theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
Notably letter doesn't rely on any of the theories about the virus's origins (lab safety accident, bioweapon etc) that Trump administration officials have pushed in recent months

If there were "enormous evidence" you'd expect to see it referenced i2/
theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
Read 15 tweets
16 May 20
Ahead of #WHA73, @ThinkGlobalHlth interviewed Taiwan Foreign Minister Wu on his country's success against #COVID19 & confrontation with @WHO.

It was a long, candid interview and worth reading in its entirety, but this thread is about WHO-specific bits 1/ thinkglobalhealth.org/article/corona…
For context, Taiwanese officials in March indicated they had warned WHO about evidence of human to human transmission. Here is how a press report characterized that claim 2/
ft.com/content/2a70a0…
This claim was picked up by @WSJ editorial on April 5 on the behavior of WHO in #COVID19 in burying evidence of human-to-human transmission against on behalf of China 3/
wsj.com/articles/world…
Read 14 tweets
24 Apr 20
The global response to #COVID19 has stalled over a question of scheduling:

When should there be a review of national and international responses to pandemic, including @WHO’s actions?

Thread cc: @ForeignAffairs & @CFR_org 1/

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
The US wants review now.

It has blocked actions at G20, G7, and put a hold to US funding to @WHO. It wants accountability for virus’s origins, for China’s behavior, and for WHO handling of the pandemic 2/ theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…
Read 11 tweets
14 Apr 20
Trump announces hold on WHO funding, blaming it for a “20-fold” increase in #COVID19 cases worldwide

@JeremyKonyndyk and I outlined earlier today in @washingtonpost the many reasons why this is wrong and a really dumb idea amid a pandemic @CFR_org 1/ washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…
On 1/23, @WHO held news conference, confirming a basic picture of #SARS2CoV that holds up reasonably well today:

- a novel coronavirus spreading person to person
- more transmissible than the seasonal flu and
- 40 times deadlier, with an estimated fatality rate of 4%

2/
Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan all looked at that same @WHO info and triggered immediate action while the United States did not

WHO is far from a perfect institution, but it is hardly responsible for the slow U.S. response to this crisis 3/
Read 10 tweets
7 Apr 20
Blaming the @WHO for a 'faulty' recommendation on travel bans on #COVID19 that White House ignored is odd.

It also does not correspond with the evidence Thread 1/
Travel bans neither stopped the spread of this novel #coronavirus nor prevented it from becoming a pandemic.

This is latest update our @ThinkGlobalHlth tracker of #COVID19 cases in countries with travel restrictions on China (red) & countries without such restrictions (blue) 2/
96 countries and territories imposed travel restrictions on China due to #COVID19. The median duration was 66 days. Most frequently seen duration has been 68 days 3/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracki…
Read 12 tweets
15 Mar 20
In this thread, I am going to try to answer some of the great questions that we’ve gotten on our @ThinkGlobalHlth tracker of #COVID19 in countries with & without travel bans 1/
If I don’t get to your question, there is a good chance it can be answered by reading the @ThinkGlobalHlth post itself, which identifies sources, methodology used, and limitations 2/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracki…
Great question. The chart actually includes this. Countries with bans are indexed, showing cumulative growth in reported #COVID19 cases since the day that each country imposed its first travel restriction 3/
Read 6 tweets