[Thread] Last week, @ColinPClarke and I wrote two pieces assessing al Qaeda. Here I want to compare our main points with the Trump admin's assessments of the group, especially as there is a @HomelandDems hearing on worldwide threats on Sept 17. 1/n
In the first piece in @ForeignAffairs, we examined the global trajectory of al Qaeda, making a case for more attention to the group's observable political cohesion across major affiliates, which has improved since 2014-16. foreignaffairs.com/articles/afgha…
In the second piece in @ForeignPolicy, we looked at Ayman al-Zawahiri's leadership of al Qaeda, arguing that analysts often overlook his careful politics, which many jihadists resent but it has aided al Qaeda's cause in recent years. foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/10/zaw…
Around the same time as our pieces, senior Trump admin officials offered very different assessments on al Qaeda. In remarks to the press on way to Doha for the intra-Afghan talks, Sec Pompeo mostly dismissed the group -- which has been his line this year. state.gov/secretary-mich….
In an op-ed on Sept 10, like Pompeo, the Director National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) Christopher Miller argued that al-Qaida is very weak and that victory against the group is in sight. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
I am open to being wrong and the admin's recent assessment being right. The al Qaeda in decline thesis is an important one, and smart people (than me) have made it with important frameworks and metrics. For example, see this @dbyman piece.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Here is the problem. Miller's assessment departs from where the NCTC was at recently. In late 2019, his predecessor Russ Travers offered a different take on al Qaeda. See Travers' testimony to Congress: dni.gov/index.php/nctc…; & speech to Wash Institute: dni.gov/files/NCTC/doc….
You might say that was Travers in late 2019? But I don't see what has happened since to al Qaeda for NCTC to reach such a different conclusion. There have been hits against al Qaeda in Syria & Yemen since, but overall, there is continuity than a step-change in AQ trajectory.
Given the current politics surrounding the DNI, Director Miller should explain his assessment -- and the shift from Travers' take. There was no worldwide threat assessment report this year, so his upcoming testimony before @HomelandDems is important. n/n homeland.house.gov/activities/hea…
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Interesting and unusual interview of Chinese consul general in Karachi Li Bijian on Pakistan’s political situation, challenges facing Chinese investors and security situation. Some highlights: geo.tv/latest/430300-…
Says the new coalition government is “very impressive”, Shehbaz is “bulldozer prime minister.”
Offers political advice to the coalition government:
After Pak missed the July 2 IMF board meeting & the currency started crashing, it was overdetermined that Pak will not be able to wait till the next meeting in August & ask for an early disbursal of the IMF tranche. So in that sense I am not surprised this happened. But…
…fact that Bajwa made this call to Dep Sec Sherman tells me the crisis has deepened, other options stand exhausted, and the economy is teetering on the brink. Worth remembering that last week, Pak PM assistant Fatemi also met Sherman. state.gov/deputy-secreta…
We will see if the US gov’t is able (& willing?) to do anything. Still overall the US has been working with Pak on various issues since late last year — despite shadow of the US withdrawal from AFG, memory of Pak’s support of Taliban, as well as Khan’s regime change theatrics.
He is also tracking negotiations with the IMF and IMF's asks of Pak. In this story he notes Pakistan needs to assure IMF of Saudi financing and reminds that Pak needs $41 billion over next 12 months to fund debt repayments and boost FOREX reserves:
Al-Qaeda is more settled and Zawahiri more comfortable and communicative since the Taliban’s takeover. It doesn’t pose an immediate threat from AFG due to lack of capability; it also doesn’t wish to embarrass or make things difficult for the Taliban.
Al-Qaeda has a committee called the Hittin Committee, which manages global leadership. Next in line for the group after Zawahiri are core’s Adl, Maghrebi, AQIM’s Yazib Mebrak and Shabaab’s Diriye; Idlib-based Hurras leader Suri is also on the committee. Hittin has demoted AQAP.
.@IKPeshawar reports Pak & TTP have "agreed to extend the ceasefire and continue peace talks following separate meetings with Mullah Muhammad Hassan Akhund, Acting Prime Minister of the ‘Islamic Emerate of Afghanistan (IEA)’ at his office the other day." dawn.com/news/1692383/i…
Confirms presidential pardon for TTP leaders Muslim, Mehmood Khan: "GoP, sources said, had demonstrated its seriousness by acceding to some of the TTP’s demands...presidential pardon to two key militant commanders, including TTP Swat spokesman Muslim Khan, was one such demand."
"...days of “intense and extensive negotiations” in the Afghan capital attended by senior level delegations from the two sides that at one point seemed close to breakdown...Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is the central mediator, helped bring the talks back on track, sources said."