New study on Li in several supply/demand scenarios.
They claim this a 1.5ห-compatible path:
3bn cars in 2050 or 0.3๐/capita. (EU's density today 0.48 ๐/capita)
of which 49% are assumed EV sales by 2030 or 86% by 2050.
Repeat โ 3-fold, and in 30yrs
our 100yr ecocide in EU and US
in pristine Africa, Asia & S-America?
*๐ sprawl, material andโก๏ธuse
*destruction of biomes, habitat, carbon sinks,
*tyre ruboff
*construction material + machinery
*...
I should expand the list of destruction but
to call that 1.5ห-compatible is ....
TBH, the narrow field of view smacks of the car AND construction industry justifying their existence and growth!
No surprise then that acc to that study, Lithium supply until 2050 for 3bn EV is โ
This nhm.ac.uk/press-office/pโฆ looks at 6 metals for ALL req tech, incl wind turbines, PV...It also sheds light on UK's target of 2035 100% EV.
15 yrs is too short for high% voluntary lifestyle change so UK alone wd need high%age of
global extraction CAPACITY/a
for <= 35mio ๐
That one looks a bit more realistic, doesn't it. But I can't find the original "Letter", only this press statement.
The paper in #1 is a very narrow, sectoral view, looking to translate (and grow) transport sector 1:1 acc to emission reduction scenarios. But such narrow view disregards sustainability guidelines where all damage & CO2e of a product needs evaluation. Eg:
The attempt described in my second link, to replace existing fleets with EV within 15yrs, is what EV-pushers dream of.
But they ignore the very real extraction bottleneck to satisfy "western" nations' quick transformation. It can't serve even UK's small fleet until 2035.
So. What physics demands of the world to stay WELL below 2หor near 1.5ห, neutral ~2040, and what #Equity demands of us, ~2030,
can't be achieved by maintaining today's car fleet 1:1 and our unsustainable lifestyles. Mining capacity isn't nearly enough and
All the EV-pushers in Germany and the western world should listen to the science and finally #FaceTheClimateEmergency.
The lifestyle enabled by cars can't go on and can not be exported any further. We need less and different concepts of mobility, energy and raw material use. GO!
โข โข โข
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Even renaissance societies relied on extraction, international trade and specialisation.
But rekindled societies after the collapse only have non-useful know-how at first, resulting in caveman-level of useful sophistication
โ *and* again rely on fossil and wood fuel for even the most basic tasks.
I agree with Robert Harris' "Second Sleep" where only population outside metropolitan areas survive the famine and violence. How could we today help the survivors to rekindle a *sustainable* organisation?
Which cultures r likely to rekindle societal organisation beyond tribes? IMO non-urban S-America. How to bolster those future attempts today, paper knowledge caches? How to curate that knowledge for its likely usefulness? "When there's no pharma industry: medicine for dummies"...
The soft-sci troubadours sing about degrowth and doughnuts. Ballads of soft "transitions" to utopia. Risk awareness can't grow because these ballads are about a far-away time, not heeding the requirements of today's breeched planetary boundaries/budget.
I spent lotsa time deciphering the climate of the Pliocene or MIS11 and listening to ballads of "transitions" to utopia.
Assuming that this surely was what I need to know.
But neither physicists nor troubadours cover what would have raised my risk-awareness to reality-levels.
Intriguing.
A long drought prevailed AD 500ff in East Mediterranean & Arab Peninsula. Might've been in more regions but these I know of.
The 1st plague epidemic from rat fleas began in Kush/Egypt 541-549 and culled MENA & Europe.
Long droughts cause (death, war and) migration..
Did (the aftermath of) the drought fuel epidemic spread? Likely. Drought weakens states, workers flee, wars ensue, armies carry๐ชฒeverywhere.
Did Kush experience drought, too? Was the (onset of the) pandemic even caused by rats' or human behaviour that was influenced by drought?
What human or rat behaviour would trigger rat fleas to jump and infect humans?
I'd imagine you need lots of rats to increase the chances of a few infected fleas to jump. These rats need food and also be brave enough to run around in the immediate vicinity of humans.
Hm.
Intriguing is that Chile's citizens turned out to be the most risk-aware in this international Facebook survey. Of its 19mio citizens, 1094 took part in the survey and 60-70% know they'll be harmed personally by climate change.
This is the level of awareness we need!
The survey was conducted in Mar-Apr 2022, ~6 months after election and 1 month after inauguration of new left govt. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Chilโฆ
I don't know anything of the talking points during their election. The only thing I know is, they now have a cli-sci as new EP secretary.
It might be that election campaigns were based on climate by all candidates and that this has in turn heightened the climate-awareness and the so important risk-awareness so much so that 60-70% rightly assume personal harm from climate change.
2 more awareness-factors could be
Impressive.
...
I think.
Really.
But if you're like me & want to know the underlying "model narratives", (that's how modellers call their policy recommendations buried in their models) that reduce demand, it's disappointing. Meaning I can't gauge sufficiency nor practicability
The authors do say in their "conclusions" that future research is needed to put the naked numbers into policy practice โย but ask yourself: if they didn't decide which policies should be enacted (the "model narratives"), then how could they calculate energy requirements at all?
Anyway. So the authors did enact policies and then calculated that their best scenario of 4 can reduce end energy demand from 2020 lvl by 52% for UK.
Same reduction potential is named in German & global studies just by moving to RE, tho.
Also: 8% nature NET is unacceptable.