Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The #SOTEU was very presidential - and not in a good way. @vonderleyen dropped a lot of headlines but gave very little indication of where the @EU_Commission is headed and failed to strengthen the EP‘s Hand in the ongoing negotiations.

A few examples:
1/ The EU is in the worst recession in history. To get out of it, the EU will need a Post-Corona consensus on fiscal policy. This will take time and probably new rules. The Commission should steer this debate. But nothing on this in the speech but a vague reference.
2/ @vonderleyen promised new spending on digital and climate-related European projects - but she doesn’t have the money. She could have asked member states for it when the Green Deal came out and when the Recovery Instrument was presented. She didn’t, and now it’s too late.
3/ To pretend now that the funds can come out of the Recovery Instrument is wishful thinking. Member states will use the funds in their recovery efforts (as they should). Money for long-term projects should be in the MFF. But that shop has sailed.
4/ She implicitly acknowledged that as the only place where she asked for a change of the #EUCO deal was when she called for an increase in health expenditure. That’s a few billion. But she did not strengthen the EP‘s position in a meaningful sense on the big topics.
5/ There was absolutely nothing on own resources even though even the Council debated it last week. On rule of law conditionality, she said it was non-negotiable - but what does that mean on substance? We know that there will be *a* mechanism - the details is what matters.
6/ Finally: It took @vonderleyen almost an hour to even get to Moria and she could not bring herself to mentioning that what happens there is an utter breach of EU law. This is where again she could have provided orientation - after all upholding EU law is the Commission’s job.
7/ The rest was a lot of rehash of old strategies and headlines (ok, I grant European Bauhaus, hadn’t heard that before). But do we know more now about the Commission’s plans for the future than we did this morning? I don’t think so.
8/@vonderleyen now has roughly three years to get more concrete, to take risks, to take on member states where necessary, and yes, to occasionally lose. The president of the Commission should not be the president of Europe - she should be its prime minister with a wish to govern.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Lucas Guttenberg

Lucas Guttenberg Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lucasguttenberg

Sep 9
Draghi hat seinen Bericht zur Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Europas vorgelegt - und natürlich konzentriert sich die Diskussion in 🇩🇪 sofort auf die Frage neue EU-Schulden ja/nein/vielleicht.

Warum das ein Fehler und dieser Bericht eine große Chance auch aus Berliner Perspektive ist:
Image
Image
Der Bericht ist zunächst eine ziemlich schonungslose Standortbestimmung der europäischen Wirtschaft im globalen Vergleich. Und Draghi sagt: Es sieht nicht gut aus. Als zentrale Gründe macht er fehlende Produktivität und mangelnde Innovation aus.
Außerdem nennt er die Herausforderungen durch Fachkräftemangel, hohe Energiepreise und notwendige Dekarbonisierung. Und eben die globale, teilweise unfaire, Konkurrenz. Klingt alles bekannt aus der deutschen Debatte? Eben.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 9
The Draghi report has just dropped - and it is surprisingly good and low-bullshit.
My initial takeaways: Image
Such reports tend to be boring to read: Because the authors are mincing their words, because of too many cooks in the kitchen, because the "outside expert" is not really allowed to say what they want or do not know what they want to say.
The Letta report suffered from several of these ailments. The Draghi report suffers from none thereof. The man obviously knows what he wants to say and doesn't mince his words. The report is refreshingly low-bullshit, puts fingers in obvious wounds and largely avoids euphemisms.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 24, 2021
The 🚦 agreement is actually pretty good news for a number of Eurozone files, including the fiscal rules and EDIS.

Here are the main bits:
1/ Most importantly, the text says that the fiscal rules can be "developed further" to reach three goals: Secure growth, safeguard debt sustainability and foster green investment. They should also become "simpler and more transparent, also to strengthen implementation".
2/ This is pretty big. No red lines here, but an open and constructive opening position for negotiations that can very well include a change to the rules themselves. It will be now up to the Commission and other member states to take up the offer that is in that text.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 13, 2021
Das @_FriedrichMerz-Interview im @handelsblatt ist beeindruckendes Anschauungsmaterial, wie sich ein Teil der Konservativen im europapolitischen Wald verirrt hat und jetzt nicht mehr herausfindet.

Warum das ein Problem ist:
1/ Es geht mit dem klassischen Motiv los, dass man höllisch aufpassen muss, den faulen Südeuropäern (hier stv 🇮🇹🇪🇸) nicht ihr Hallodritum zu finanzieren. Dass gerade diese Länder die ambitioniertesten Pläne zur Verwendung der EU-Gelder vorgelegt haben, bleibt natürlich unerwähnt.
2/ Es geht dann weiter zu den Schuldenregeln. Hier räumt auch Merz ein, dass die Einhaltung für viele Länder schwierig wird. Und dann wird es spannend: Er drückt sich extrem wortreich um eine Antwort herum, ob man die Regeln denn nun wirklich so einhalten sollte.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 6, 2021
Commissioner @PaoloGentiloni announces in @SZ that the Commission will only present its proposal for fiscal rules reform once there is a consensus among eurozone countries. Here's why this is a wise approach and why we are still far away from that point:
sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/eu-…
1/ A weird feeling has grown in recent months that an expenditure rule is the way to go to reform the SGP and that what we basically need now is a Commission proposal that the technocrats then can tweak so that everyone is happy. Everyone is now waiting for that proposal.
2/ In my view, this feeling is a trap and the Commission is now trying to avoid falling into this trap by basically asking member states to come to a consensus what they want before puttting out a proposal.
Read 14 tweets
Jun 21, 2021
CDU and CSU are about to publish their election manifesto. On EU economic governance/fiscal policy, it is in perfect continuity with the Merkel line: No openings, no thick red lines.

Quick overview:
1/ CDU and CSU say they want a "stability and growth union". Who doesn't. They say they want to return swiftly to the fiscal rules but to "develop them further without watering them down." The also want sanctions to be applied and less room for judgment. No surprise here.
2/ On the Recovery Instrument, they insist that it is temporary and a one-off - which is true. They also say it cannot lead to a "debt union" and there cannot be a mutualisation of sovereign debt - both of which are not bound to happen. So no surprises here.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(