My bread-and-butter framework comes from @SusanMichie and colleagues: The behaviour change wheel: a new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. doi: 10.1186/1748-5908-6-42 ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21513547
1. Education: this has a weak track record. But maybe universities/colleges—regardless of virtual or not—can make knowledge a criterion of ongoing assessment/performance.
2. Persuasion: tough sell so far. But if it were tied to their ability to maintain a reasonably free lifestyle, it might work. But just saying “do it!” hasn’t and won’t work. This has the greatest potential for success on campus (if campuses intend to stay open).
3. Incentivisation: unsure how this could/would work above/beyond persuasion. But perhaps sponsor “safe parties” in lieu of these unsafe ones. There are creative ways to do this responsibly using a harm-reduction framework.
4. Coercion: I’m rarely a fan of this method. Unless you are a parent of young children, in which case coercion is a legacy tactic for behaviour change.
5. Training: This COULD go the wrong way with young adults. But what if there were training videos of how to look cool being responsible? Training how to respond to situations that aren’t safe, how to have conversations with roommates, friends,family, etc.
6. Enablement: similar for incentives, but this is 🔑—pose the challenge to young adults to come up with solutions. Young Adults are smart (as evidenced by their rational approach to personal risk), so we should harness their brains and creativity.
We really need them to help us address the concept of “bubbles”—because they don’t function like nuclear families: they HAVE nuclear families, but have their YOUNG ADULT “families”, too. It ain’t easy for them to navigate this without home testing.
7. Modeling: when I asked my young adult kids to help me survey their peers, it was immediately clear that non-masking at parties is normalized. We need party “hosts” to start off wearing masks and for DMs/texts to say “bring a mask”
8. Environmental restructuring: Young adults need safe places to convene. Allow drinking and marijuana use outside (preferably in places separate from young children!), and create more outdoor spaces that are comfortable. Invest in pop-up nighttime park use for young adults.
9. Restrictions: wouldn’t go there. In fact, almost never go with restrictions. Not in my antimicrobial stewardship work, not as a parent, not as a basketball coach.
Addressing COVID-19 in young adults should be our highest priority based on our and international experience. Nobody seems to have got this right, yet.
One last nota bene: sex is important for young adults and promoting safe sex is always the right thing. But this pandemic is being driven by gatherings not 1-on-1 interactions. Targeting non-group sex as a risk for spread is low impact with a low likelihood of success.
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Yesterday, @COVIDSciOntario released updated treatment guidelines, focusing on patients with mild illness. It is a substantial change from prior guidance, so we thought we would walk people through the noteworthy changes.
First, as always, this is the work of +++people incl. the, er, volunteers of the Drugs & Biologics Clinical Practice Guidelines Working Group of @COVIDSciOntario. Co-chair is @MPaiMD.
Second, the update is a response to: 1. New data & evidence 2. Changes in drug supply & demand.
The first thing you will notice is that we have done away with Tiers (cue the cheers), and instead have put in a grid that takes a more nuanced approach to risk for disease.
[NEW] We are now aiming for treating pts whose risk of progression is comparable to ~5% hospitalization.
"W-w-wait! Paxlovid is NOT first line? I thought everyone was saying this is the best thing since the mute function!"
You have it right. If you look carefully at our guidelines on the 2nd page (where we cover outpt therapy for "Mildly Ill Patients") you can see where it lies.
"That is waaaay too small to see on my phone."
Sorry, let me try again.
"Oh, I think I can see. So Paxlovid is only for the highest risk patients, and only if they cannot get sotrovimab or remdesivir?"
That's right. And in Ontario, we don't have enough remdesivir for outpts.
Clinical Practice Guideline Summary: Recommended Drugs and Biologics in Adult Patients with COVID-19 - Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/c…
The guidelines are based on a blend of pathogenesis, clinical trials, and local realities of drug supply and burn rate.
If we got it right, phew!
If we got it wrong, recognize that this is a rapidly evolving situation, with new evidence, new variants, and new drug availability.
Omicron has shortened the presymptomatic period, but we have little certainty of the rest of the time course.
I have received messages, texts, and reply-tweets regarding my stance on COVID management in ON (and elsewhere). As a strong early proponent of a #COVIDzero approach for a variety of reasons which, I believe, will show merit historically, I have never minimized COVID. However ...
1. I continue to have uncertainty regarding the severity of Omicron. I believe we will establish considerably more certainty in days ahead. Certainly, some evidence is emerging of a lesser severity—both mechanistically & epidemiologically—but I remain uncertain and thus cautious.
2. I don't accept the experience of the UK, Denmark, or anywhere else right now because they are at roughly the same time period in Omicron as we are—very early. The reasons why we cannot generalize from Gauteng are well documented, including in my weekly newsletter from Dec. 18.
1. The dominance of Omicron in cases means that the monoclonal antibody cocktail of casirivimab + imdevimab is no longer useful. It is sotrovimab or bust! 2. Because we don't have tons of sotrovimab, we are recommending it for the groups most likely to gain overall benefit.
These are symptomatic mildly ill patients who are:
70+ years with 1 additional risk factor
50+ AND Indigenous + 1 additional risk factor
Residents of LTC or other congregate care
Hospital-acquired
* other high-risk patients can also be considered (e.g. +++ immunocompromise)
1/ People are increasingly fed up with COVID, so measures to control Omicron cannot/should not rely on measures used for prior waves. (Which means that governments would be wise not to allow COVID to reach a crisis situation.)
When I highlighted several days ago that case growth was worrying me, several Twitterati assumed that I was alluding to lockdowns. (I was doing nothing of the sort)
But failure to pay attention to cases in EUR shows that countries can be forced into lockdowns if they don't act.
2/ Engineering/environmental controls (e.g. ventilation, filtration) will be the smallest imposition on people's lives.
Better masking (understanding, adherence, quality) would make a difference.
This is without assuming any properties of Omicron.