Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #COVIDzero

Most recents (24)

Proud of the new howsmyflattening.ca site and auto-notification system - a product of the passionate team behind @howsmyflattenON relentlessly pursuing the goal of making COVID-19 monitoring easy for Ontarians @LauraCRosella @farbodab @AVEsensoy @chrisgostling

Why = below
When HMF started in March, Ontario was "flying blind” without centralized data to inform decision making. @TorontoStar thestar.com/news/canada/20…
Since then, much more #opendata has become available thanks to tireless efforts @ONgov, #OHDP @janephilpott, public health units and more. Ontario’s leaders now have a full view of "what is going on" to guide decision making. covid-19.ontario.ca/data
Read 9 tweets
1-Latest #COVID19BC Testing graph from @CDCofBC Nov. 20th Surveillance report. It shows how they can continue the fear propaganda to "justify" violating #BChumanrightsCode & #Charterrights through meaningless "orders." #psychologicalwarfare #COVIDpsyop
2-I worked in #childprotection in #BC. A major, valid complaint from "clients" of #MCFD was that the goal posts kept getting changed arbitrarily. I didn't practice like that, but saw it. Its actually a strategy of #psychologicalwarfare #institutionalabuse & #torture. #COVIDpsyop
3-I've been blocked by some of "#COVIDZero" "advocates." This campaign is population-based #psychologicalwarfare bc this is impossible to achieve. #COVID19 is a cold/flu virus that's endemic now. Moving the goal posts sets us all up. They just keep moving them. #torture #MKUltra
Read 10 tweets
Let’s aim for #COVIDZero with Rapid Testing!🇨🇦📄✍🏻
Avoid painful recurrent lockdowns with #TestTraceIsolateSupport.
Sign the petition to urge @GovCanHealth to approve Rapid Tests for Canadians - Via @KashPrime #COVID19
chng.it/76zhSXSKjK
There are at least TEN made-in-🇨🇦 Rapid #COVID19 Tests pending approval by @GovCanHealth
ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ten-canad…
Read 4 tweets
Re: the #COVIDZero Canada strategy, "Test, Trace, Isolate, Support" @COVIDzeroCanada
...here is my take on how we can get there (thread):
/1
Test: Widely available, accessible testing; rapid resulting (rapid resulting...if #YYC airport can do this for travellers, why is this not available to the masses yet???) /2
Test: What about test-at-home kits? The FDA recently approved an at-home test that provides results within 30 mins: fda.gov/news-events/pr…
/3
Read 14 tweets
#COVID19 in #Ontario [Nov 20]:
1418 new cases*, 8 deaths, 1415 resolved
48173 tests/day, 46609 pending, 2.9% pos
518 hospitalized (142 in ICU)
See THREAD for more graphs📈⤵️
#onhealth #COVID19ontario #onpoli
Hospitalizations/ICU for #COVID19 in #Ontario🏥

Hospitalizations non-ICU: 376
ICU non-ventilated: 50
ICU+ventilator: 92
= Total hospitalized: 518

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli
#COVID19 Hospitalizations & deaths in #Ontario

Line = 7 day moving average. #COVIDー19 #onhealth
Read 12 tweets
1/7 💔 TRAGIC﹒Sadly, 3️⃣2️⃣3️⃣ residents of LTC/R/Gp homes have passed away due to 🦠 during the 2nd🌊 in #Ontario. We are sending our condolences to the families.

❗️@fordnation 🙏🏼 ACT NOW to #ProtectTheVulnerable

‼️ Let’s ALL aim to reach #COVIDzero in 🇨🇦

Thread👇🏻
2/7 So far, 4492 residents/or staff were 🦠 positive (+821 vs Nov 11th)

- 3215 cases in LTC homes
- 959 cases in Retirement homes
- 206 cases in Group homes
- 112 cases in Complex Care
3/7 The 2nd 🦠 wave has caused 500 outbreaks in total (+51 vs Nov 11th)

❗️166 outbreaks are currently active:
- 104 LTCH
- 52 RH
- 7 Gp H
- 3 Complex Care

❗️As of Nov 11th, 120 outbreaks had more than 5️⃣ cases; 11 of them are still active and have more than 1️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ cases.
Read 14 tweets
Tonight's LTC update: the #BrokenHeartsEmptyShoes event was held on Parliament Hill, asking for improved LTC standards across Canada. By "Canadians 4 LTC Standards".
What LTC staff are asking for is clear - better staffing, PPE, and a reduction in community transmission #COVIDzero
Read 4 tweets
Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/
Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/
ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Any excess mortality experts out there?

I'm looking the cumulative excess mortality tracker table on @OurWorldInData

ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess…

As of July 26, which is last date we have excess mortality data for Canada, I see Canada has 3rd highest % excess mortality among peers. Image
The absolute number of excess deaths as of July 26 matches cumulative total #COVID19 deaths in #Canada reported by @covid_canada, so I suspect this means we're doing a good job of counting our COVID deaths, and that only a relatively small % of them would have died without COVID. Image
Other countries, such as USA, seem to be greatly under-reporting, since as of July 26, they had a cumulative excess mortality of nearly 250,000 deaths but are only reporting that number of COVID-19 deaths as of this week.
Read 50 tweets
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19th: 1️⃣.0️⃣3️⃣ (ONTARIO COVID-19 Rt)

Predicted Movements:
🔒 Peel, Toronto, York
🟥 Durham, Waterloo
🟧 Hamilton⤵️, Huron, Windsor, Simcoe-Muskoka, Southwestern, Chatham, Thunder Bay
🟨 Eastern⤵️, Grey Bruce, Kingston, Peterborough
🟩 NONE

#COVIDzero

...1/6
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19th: ONTARIO & REGIONAL COVID-19 UPDATE

🚦 REGIONAL METRIC 🚦
🦠 Effective Reproduction Number / Rt
📊 Weekly Cases Per Capita
🚑 Sporadic Community Transmission

⚠️ RISK ASSESSMENT ⚠️
🏫 Schools
🎊 Gatherings

...2/6
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19th: ONTARIO & REGIONAL COVID-19 UPDATE

👶👴 AGE BREAKDOWN 👵 👦
☠️ Monthly Death Projection
📊 Case Distribution by Age

...3/6
Read 6 tweets
Tonight's LTC round-up starts with travel back in time to April 2020, with this happy article written on Kennedy Lodge in Toronto. It talks about how the home will keep residents safe, residents' favourite activities, food. Families. Check it out.

toronto.com/news-story/996…
Here is Kennedy Lodge today. 31 residents lost to COVID-19, 128 infected. You see the pattern: Chain-owned, anonymous PSW, understaffing, inadequate PPE.

No names mentioned of course, just faceless numbers.

The right policies could have avoided this.

huffingtonpost.ca/entry/covid-ca…
If we truly decry the Great Barrington Declaration, we must acknowledge the unethical nature of 🇨🇦's unscientific and ageist policies. #COVIDzero is the only moral approach for a society that values the lives of its disabled, elderly + less privileged.

Read 5 tweets
#COVIDzero
"HALIFAX—This morning, my children went to school—in an old brick building, where they lined up to go in the scuffed front doors. I went to work out at the gym, the real gym, where I huffed and puffed in a sweaty group class
@RobertGreenhill
1/
nytimes.com/2020/11/18/opi…
"And a few days ago, my partner and I hosted a dinner party, gathering eight friends around the dining room table for a boisterous night that went too late. Remember those?

2/
"Where I’m living, we gather without fear. Life is unfolding much as it did a year ago. This magical, virus-free world is just one long day’s drive away from the Empire State Building — in a parallel dimension called Nova Scotia.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Unfortunately, 17 more residents of LTC homes passed away due to covid the past 24hours.

The news regarding the vaccine development are encouraging; nevertheless, in the meantime we urgently need a better approach to stop this tragedy and achieve #COVIDzero related deaths.
We currently have many exploding outbreaks in LTC/R homes, which, unfortunately, would likely lead to more deaths 💔💔💔
#COVIDzero is the only approach right now to stop the exponential growth of 🦠 related deaths of LTC residents
Read 4 tweets
#COVID19 in #Ontario [Nov 18]:
1417 new cases*, 32 deaths, 1495 resolved
33440 tests/day, 36671 pending, 4.2% pos
535 hospitalized (127 in ICU)
See THREAD for more graphs📈⤵️
#onhealth #COVID19ontario #onpoli
Hospitalizations/ICU for #COVID19 in #Ontario🏥

Hospitalizations non-ICU: 408
ICU non-ventilated: 49
ICU+ventilator: 78
= Total hospitalized: 535

#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli
#COVID19 Hospitalizations & deaths in #Ontario

Line = 7 day moving average. #COVIDー19 #onhealth
Read 11 tweets
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18th: 1️⃣.0️⃣3️⃣ (ONTARIO COVID-19 Rt)

PREDICTED REGIONAL MOVEMENTS:
🟥 Durham, Waterloo, Huron
🟧 Windsor, Simcoe-Muskoka, Southwestern, Chatham
🟨 Eastern⤵️, Grey Bruce, Kingston, Peterborough, Thunder Bay
🟩 NONE

#COVIDzero

...1/6
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18th: ONTARIO & REGIONAL COVID-19 UPDATE

🚦 REGIONAL METRIC 🚦
🦠 Effective Reproduction Number / Rt
📊 Weekly Cases Per Capita
🚑 Sporadic Community Transmission

⚠️ RISK ASSESSMENT ⚠️
🏫 Schools
🎊 Gatherings

...2/6
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18th: ONTARIO & REGIONAL COVID-19 UPDATE

👶👴 AGE BREAKDOWN 👵 👦
☠️ Monthly Death Projection
📊 Case Distribution by Age

...3/6
Read 6 tweets
What is #COVIDzero? What is elimination? What is strategy? A primer

1. #COVIDzero is a slogan. It is aspirational. It sets a high bar for a country that has failed to set a bar. @JustinTrudeau yesterday said that it doesn't make sense to have a unifying mssg. I beg to differ.
2. Elimination, in the proper sense of the term, means reducing incidence of infection or disease to zero in a geographical region for a period of time, with continued efforts.

Nobody seriously believes you can keep the cases of COVID at zero for any sustained period of time.
No country on the planet has been able to eliminate COVID, and this includes the best performing countries: New Zealand, Vietnam, China, Australia, South Korea, etc. They all have cases.

But they have an elimination strategy and mindset.
Read 16 tweets
In the last few days and following the emergence of #COVIDzero, I've noticed an unsettling fissuring within the academic community.

As @IrfanDhalla says, people on both sides likely agree more than they disagree, but the divisiveness is unproductive: thestar.com/life/health_we…

1/8
The #COVIDzero approach recognizes that there is a disjointed approach to #COVID19 in Canada that is causing uncertainty, unnecessary suffering, economic hardship, and preventable deaths.

#COVIDzero is based on a goal of 0 cases with 0 tolerance for community transmission.

2/8
The "moderate" or "balanced" camp scoffs at this aspirational strategy, minimizing it to "hashtags and platitudes...on social media", highlighting its impossibility, and contends that we need to focus on "improving our ability to live with #COVID19": nationalpost.com/opinion/opinio…

3/8
Read 8 tweets
To get to #COVIDzero we need to look at Slovakia. Over two weekends, they brought their numbers crashing down, from an R0 of 1.47 to 0.62 in just two weeks Thread ->
How did they do it?
- They used two rapid tests from South Korea (Rapigen and SD Biosensor)
- They tested everyone between 10-65 twice over Oct 30-Nov 1, and Nov 6-8.
- Positive tests were isolated for 10 days.
- Untested citizens isolated for 10 days
Impressively, they mobilized 5000 eight-person teams, composed of health care workers, military medics and others.
They used polling stations as makeshift testing centres.
Results were available in 15 minutes
This way, they were able to test 3.6m out of 5.4m total population.
Read 8 tweets
I am friends/like/respect @BogochIsaac and have listened/read his views. Unsurprisingly, we agree on ~ everything.

Main areas of disagreement:
1. Feasibility: if there is PUBLIC/POLITICAL WILL to protect small businesses, older adults, vulnerable and down-the-road freedom ✅
2. Time/severity of hardship: these are, again, public and political DECISIONS. People need to know what they are choosing. If I told everyone facing today that we could have avoided the certainty of today's hardship with a bit more hardship, would we have endured it? ✅
3. Border restrictions and restricted movement: Atlantic Canada have freedom of movement within, with a shared US-Canada border. How have they done it? Thoughtful determination. Would you rather be in a Canada Bubble right now then our current reality? ✅
Read 7 tweets
A thread...great news on the vaccine front this week, but perhaps a good time to remind folks that this is NOT the new normal, and that pandemics have a beginning, a middle and an end. We are in the middle now; the end will come.
I want to map out for you, in the most general terms, what I think is the likely future contour of the pandemic globally, based on how remarkably constant GLOBAL case growth has been for a number of months now.
Caveats galore.

As either Neils Bohr or Yogi Berra said: "Prediction is hard, especially about the future".

I think Neils Bohr but more fun if it was Yogi.
Read 31 tweets
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17th: 1️⃣.0️⃣3️⃣ (ONTARIO COVID-19 Rt)

Current Friday Predictions:
🟥 Waterloo, Durham, Huron, Ottawa
🟧 Windsor, Simcoe-Muskoka, Southwestern, Chatham

#COVIDzero

...1/5
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17th: ONTARIO & REGIONAL COVID-19 UPDATE

🚦 REGIONAL METRIC 🚦
🦠 Effective Reproduction Number / Rt
📊 Weekly Cases Per Capita
🚑 Sporadic Community Transmission

⚠️ RISK ASSESSMENT ⚠️
🏫 Schools
🎊 Gatherings

...2/5
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17th: ONTARIO & REGIONAL COVID-19 UPDATE

👶👴 AGE BREAKDOWN 👵 👦
☠️ Monthly Death Projection
📊 Case Distribution by Age

...3/5
Read 5 tweets
1/

So #COVIDzero is trending.

What's not to like about zero cases of #COVID19?

1. How can we get there?
2. Is this feasible in Canada?

Some unpopular opinions & perhaps a few hard truths below...
2/ With a #COVIDzero strategy or not, it is clear that we should improve/continue to:

1. Evaluate & address drivers of #COVID19 in the community

2. Bolster a Test-Trace-Isolate-Support system

3. Support communities & businesses disproportionately impacted by the virus

BUT...
3/ What would it actually take to *operationalize* #COVIDzero in Canada? How do we get to (or near) zero cases & maintain it?

***It would take prolonged & full lockdown (3-5 months based on current burden?) where #COVID19 is crushed, then ongoing supports to suppress this***
Read 15 tweets
1/ LONG THREAD: Active Cases Data Can Mislead

Bonnie Henry thesis: School age cohorts are NOT contributors to community spread. Age groups 20-29 and 30-39 are the culprits.

(Assume data was accurately recorded & no padding with private tests, even though it may not be true.) Image
2/ The previous graph shows active cases for all age groups from Aug 31- Nov 13. No surprises here, all curves trend upwards, rising sharply for 20-29 yr and 30-39 yr adults. One might argue that these are the major spreaders due to high number of active cases. Is it really true?
3/ The normalized graph below adjusts for the fact that different age groups comprise a different percentage of the BC population. Active case data for each age group is scaled as if each group had exactly 100,000 people, to allow a valid comparison. The WHO uses this 100K base. Image
Read 12 tweets
#COVID19 in #Ontario [Nov 16]:
1487 new cases*, 10 deaths, 992 resolved
33351 tests/day, 16254 pending, 4.5% pos
500 hospitalized (125 in ICU)
See THREAD for more graphs📈⤵️
#onhealth #COVID19ontario #onpoli
Hospitalizations/ICU for #COVID19 in #OntarioHospital

Hospitalizations non-ICU: 375
ICU non-ventilated: 55
ICU+ventilator: 70
= Total hospitalized: 500

Some hospitals don't report #'s on weekends.
#COVIDー19 #COVID19Ontario #onpoli
*New*
#COVID19 Hospitalizations & deaths in #Ontario

Line = 7 day moving average. #COVIDー19 #onhealth
Read 13 tweets

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