1/🧵Came across some old USA data that shows rise of new energy technology (ICE tractors + petroleum) and decline of old (animal power).
Smooth lines disguise plenty of market speed bumps, eg Great Depression starts in 1930.
Don't fret about EV sales. EVs = tractors
#Alberta
2/The first "tractors" were powered by steam. They date back to the early 1890s.
In Western Canada, they were uneconomic for plowing, but very good at breaking new farm land and powering the big threshing machines that toured farms during harvest.
Sales declined in 1920s.
3/Around 1908, first "big gas tractors" sold in the West.
Still uneconomic for 1/4 section farms, a few big commercial farms experimented with teams of them. Economics weren't much better than steam tractors.
Never caught on. Kinda like some of the early EVs that failed.
Will global oil demand peak in 2030 then decline quickly @IEA or peak in 2045 and decline slowly @OPEC?
The answer has significant implications for #Canada and oil-producing provinces, especially #Alberta.
#OOTT #ABleg #cdnpoli share.transistor.fm/s/72e05025
2/Framing the peak oil demand discussion: Fast vs slow energy transition
International Energy Agency (IEA) = fast
*Peak oil demand by 2030, short plateau, rapid decline in 2 of 3 scenarios
3/My hypothesis: IEA's modelling and analysis is more credible than OPEC's.
Several of OPEC's key assumptions (discussed later in this thread) are falling apart only a few months after the release of World Oil Outlook 2045. opec.org/opec_web/en/pr…
3/AB Electricity System Operator (AESO) also wrote a letter dated July 21 that supported "an inquiry into land use and reclamation issues..." alberta.ca/external/news/…