Britain is doing more #COVID19 testing than any other country in Europe. Really! So how on earth are we now in a situation where the testing system is on its knees just at the very moment we most need it?
Here's my longish read about what went wrong: news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
Here's my longish read about what went wrong: news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
I've spoken to lots of people involved in testing and three critical decisions stand out:
1. Scarred by the events of spring @DHSCgovuk vowed to ensure care homes got enough tests this time. Prudent decision but upshot is 100k of the 250k daily usable capacity has been eaten up.
1. Scarred by the events of spring @DHSCgovuk vowed to ensure care homes got enough tests this time. Prudent decision but upshot is 100k of the 250k daily usable capacity has been eaten up.
2. Govt committed to getting pupils back to school but underestimated the surge of demand for testing from students. Some schools have firm rules that every fever => test. About half of the recent rise in test requests is from schools. Tests for kids aged 5-15 quadrupled.
3. The working assuming in @DHSCgovuk was that if there was a surge in cases it wouldn't come til Oct/Nov. But #covid19 spread faster both in Europe and here than they anticipated. And quarantine didn't stem the spread as much as they hoped.
Perhaps testing would have held up if just one or two of the above had been the case. But all three happening at once has short circuited the system. And since they were expecting the peak in Oct/Nov, new capacity (500k tests) isn't due to arrive until then 😦
In the meantime @DHSCgovuk plans to rely much more on behavioural rules (rule of 6 etc) than the forensic control and analysis it was hoping to get from test and trace. The next few weeks will be v nervy since with testing in trouble officials worry we are flying in the dark...
I'm informed that the avg cost @DHSCgovuk is paying per test is around £100. Crude calculation wld imply that we have already spent £2bn on tests and if testing is near capacity in the coming six months test and trace will have pretty much burnt through its £10bn budget by spring
Bad luck, miscalculation and one or two poor decisions. Combine it all and you're halfway towards understanding what's gone wrong with Britains #COVID19 testing system. @SkyNews long read here: news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
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