1. The economy is by far the top issue with Trump voters AND undecided voters. Biden voters care about Covid response, civil rights, and health care.
2. Biden and Trump are tied on managing the economic recovery, Biden leads everywhere else.
What have these voters been hearing?
1. For Trump, 25% mentioned the Woodward tapes, 10% mentioned @TheAtlantic story, and 4% mentioned Trump’s Nobel nomination.
2. For Biden, the top response was “nothing” (11%)
What messages move these voters?
For Biden, these were the winners:
For Trump, this was the winner, but it wasn’t as effective as Biden’s best:
Bottom line: Pro-Biden messages about his plans on health care, the economy, race, and climate are far, far more effective at moving infrequent and undecided voters than anti-Trump messages about anything else.
@elonmusk 1) People who enter illegally are not eligible for citizenship and non-citizens cannot and do not vote
2) People who are granted asylum cannot vote unless they become citizens, which takes ~5 years. Of almost 1 million asylum applications, only 36k were granted asylum in FY ‘22
3) Even the most generous immigration reform proposal would only apply to undocumented immigrants who’ve been here for years, and citizenship would require paying a fine, extensive background check, and going to the back of the line behind legal immigrant applicants - a process that could take a decade.
Even if you don't agree with where he lands, it's worth reading @ezraklein's Biden piece, especially since a LOT of Democrats share his exact concern: yes, Biden's a good man, has been a great president, and isn't too old for the job. But because he looks and sounds so much older than when he ran in 2020, he hasn't yet been able to convince most voters that he's the right choice for 2024.
The challenge is, we just don't know - and will likely never know - if nominating Biden is riskier than letting Democratic activists and insiders pick a lesser-known and potentially weaker general election candidate at the convention with three months to go.
Democrats have some real stars who've won races in the toughest states - Whitmer in MI, Shapiro in PA, Warnock in GA - but it's not at all clear that they'd a) be the choice of the delegates, or b) end up stronger than Biden against Trump
I find myself wishing our anti-Trump coalition would spend just a bit less time yelling about political coverage that shows no signs of changing and more time telling people how their lives would be different under a Trump presidency vs. a Biden presidency
"Honey, did you see this thing in the news about Biden being too old? Must be more important than this other thing about Trump shitting on our NATO allies because it's above the fold on the print edition that no one reads anymore" - a swing voter who doesn't exist
If Trump wins, he's told us he'll be much friendlier to murderous dictators than democracies. If Biden wins, the reverse will happen.
If Trump wins, he'll have the incentive and the ability to drastically reduce, if not fully ban, abortion access in every state. If Biden wins and Dems control Congress, abortion will once again be legal in every state.
If Trump wins, rich CEOs will get another massive tax cut and everyone else will pay a huge tax on imported goods, spiking inflation. If Biden wins, middle-class families will get a tax cut.
I’m tweeting about this absolute nonsense against my better judgment because I’m seeing it rub off on way too many smart people.
1) Most Democratic ads and speeches are currently about GOP extremism and abortion.
2) Other ads draw economic contrasts with a plutocratic GOP in order to speak to most people’s top concerns, inflation and gas prices. It is incredibly patronizing and politically obtuse to call people’s financial struggles “chief news distractions.”
3) If you think the problem in this midterm is that Democrats haven’t run around screaming “people are going to die” and “the media sucks” loudly enough, I beg of you to log off for like 10 minutes and go speak some of the vast majority of voters who aren’t terminally online.
@elonmusk Hey Elon! I know you’re concerned about voting for a party that supports division and hate, so I just wanted to make sure you’re aware of a few updates:
1) Here’s the ex-GOP Governor of Missouri who’s now running for U.S. Senate:
@elonmusk Here’s Mayra Flores, whom you recently voted for, telling her followers to buy more guns just three days after the January 6th attack on the Capitol (as you know from your Q&A with Twitter employees, she’s also tweeted QAnon hashtags):
It sounds like Manchin wants to wait for a CBO score so he can say that he voted for a bill that didn't increase the deficit and long-term debt.
That presser also added support to my theory that the problem with Joe Manchin is that Joe Manchin isn't all that bright.
If he really wanted the House to pass infrastructure, he could've sounded much more positive on Build Back Better.
Also, the more time that passes, the more time R Senators, lobbyists, etc. have to make Manchin doubt that the numbers add up. Which is probably why he wants a CBO score now.