What did we find? A thread:

1. These voters are highly motivated to show up in 2020

2. They generally don’t like Donald Trump

3. They don’t really know Joe Biden (41% of undecideds have NO opinion of him), though he’s doing better with them than Hillary (49-37% vs. 35-30%)
What do these voters believe?

1. The economy is by far the top issue with Trump voters AND undecided voters. Biden voters care about Covid response, civil rights, and health care.

2. Biden and Trump are tied on managing the economic recovery, Biden leads everywhere else.
What have these voters been hearing?

1. For Trump, 25% mentioned the Woodward tapes, 10% mentioned @TheAtlantic story, and 4% mentioned Trump’s Nobel nomination.

2. For Biden, the top response was “nothing” (11%)
What messages move these voters?

For Biden, these were the winners: Image
For Trump, this was the winner, but it wasn’t as effective as Biden’s best: Image
Bottom line: Pro-Biden messages about his plans on health care, the economy, race, and climate are far, far more effective at moving infrequent and undecided voters than anti-Trump messages about anything else.

Read more from @danpfeiffer here: crooked.com/articles/polle…

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More from @jonfavs

19 Jan
I can’t tell who hates this Farewell Address more, me or Trump.
Four years and Stephen Miller never once tried to capture the voice of the person he was writing for. It’s always like Trump is reading somebody else’s speech on the prompter for the first time.
A 20-minute speech that’s direct-to-camera with no audience is a crime.

Impeach him again.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jan
The Articles of Impeachment should begin before Trump’s rally:

1) The President said the election he lost was fraudulent and rigged. Not a single Democratic or Republican election official agreed. Not a single liberal or conservative judge agreed.
2) Trump then pressured multiple Republican officials to break the law, violate their oath of office, and overturn the election - election officials, state legislators, Members of Congress, and his own Vice President.
3) When not enough Republicans went along with Trump’s scheme, he summoned his supporters to Washington, and told an armed mob to march to the Capitol in order to disrupt the lawful certification of the election.
Read 5 tweets
22 Nov 20
Again, two straightforward options if both Rs vote against certification:

1) Dems seek a court order to certify, which the courts have granted in the past

2) Whitmer can replace the R board members who are refusing to do their job
And again, if for some reason the courts fail here, and the MI legislature decides to send Trump electors, the law says that the executive’s (Whitmer’s) slate of electors should be recognized by Congress (where a majority in both houses now recognize Biden’s win).
Republicans in Michigan may try their best to disenfranchise every voter in their state, D or R, but they cannot and will not change the results of the election.
Read 5 tweets
21 Nov 20
What the Michigan and national Republican Parties are asking for here is against Michigan law. An audit cannot be conducted until the election is certified.
From Michigan’s top election official:
This matters because if Trump and Republicans somehow succeed in pressuring the two Republican members of the state board to refuse certification, the courts will have the next say.
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct 20
Watching Jason Miller on MTP: they’re actually going with “You can’t just hide in your basement, you have to go confront this virus” as a message.
The Trump campaign’s closing message is, literally, “You’ve got to go out there and confront this virus - BY CONTRACTING IT.”
And of course there was zero pushback from Chuck on this, and no Democrat on MTP to counter Miller’s lies/insanity.

Why wasn’t a Democrat offered a spot on Meet the Press today?
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep 20
For the Nothing Matters crowd:

- 23% say opinion changed of Trump’s COVID response because of Woodward tape, including 15% of Trump voters

- 23% of indys and 6% of Trump voters say troop comments increased support for Biden

- Biden goes from +6 to +10

news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news…
I will say: it’s one poll, the shifts are small, and the effects of stories and controversies like these are often fleeting. But in a close election where more than 150 million people might cast a ballot, none of us have any idea what might change certain minds.
Also: Trump is currently behind. Every day he has to deal with a shitty media cycle is a day he loses the chance to further define Joe Biden and make up lost ground with voters.
Read 4 tweets

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