Katya Adler Profile picture
Sep 17, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
If this is so👇then HMG does not understand EU dynamic at all. Reason there was a Varadkar moment was bc sticking point in Withdrawal Agreement was the Irish protocol. The other 26 EU leaders were happy to accept a compromise if Ireland happy AND compromise protected single mkt/1
This time the sticking points are governance/level playing field/fish.. There is no single EU leader of a member state who can compromise on behalf of the rest. V different to the #Brexit divorce deal and Irish protocol /2
That said, the EU also awaits a Varadkar moment in these negotiations in that Johnson compromised hugely in his meeting with the then Taoiseach. He agreed to a border down the Irish Sea- something he’d previously claimed he’d never countenance. PM needs to compromise now too /3
To agree a trade deal with EU. Accepting compromise on state aid, fishing, governance.. Despite the government rhetoric till this point. The EU will have to make compromises too of course /4

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More from @BBCkatyaadler

Mar 10, 2023
Macron speaks of a morning of excellent exchanges here in Paris with Rishi Sunak - the first such high level bilateral summit in 5 years.
The French Presidents speaking of new beginnings between France and the UK. Speaking of the challenges in Europe facing both countries. Looking to find « concrete solutions » together
Macron congratulates Rishi Sunak and the European Commission President for reaching a new Brexit deal on NIreland. On Ukraine, Macron speaks of coordinating and working together with UK to help Ukraine
Read 6 tweets
Feb 26, 2023
Joint statement by EU Commission President von der Leyen and PM Sunak👇meeting in person in UK tomorrow. Widely viewed as last step before announcing revised joint deal on contentious post Brexit NIreland Protocol BUT /1 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
If we’ve learned ANYTHING after years of painfully difficult negotiations on the Protocol - never count your chickens .. /2
Here in Brussels the sense (for a while now) is that the ball is in UK court. Accepted wisdom is that Sunak’s negotiations within his own party and with the DUP are at least as complex as talks have been with the EU /3
Read 12 tweets
Jan 25, 2023
Leopards first. US Abrams tanks come later but signal from US is important. Though Berlin denies was a precondition to it giving the green light to allow its heavy tanks to be delivered to Ki’iv. Germany clearly did not want to be sole main source of battle tanks to Ukraine /1
a) Russia making all sorts of threatening noises. Many Germans fear escalation of conflict potentially beyond Ukraine‘s borders. Keen to feel nuclear power US beside them. /2
b) Scholz faced domestic pressure to deliver tanks but also domestic pressure NOT to. Not everyone in his SPD party is thrilled w idea and German public opinion is split. Though increasingly supportive of Leopard 2 deliveries to Ukraine /3
Read 6 tweets
Nov 1, 2022
German Chancellor Scholz has raised eyebrows at home + abroad by deciding to travel to China this Friday -the first visit by a western leader since president Xi further cemented his hold on power. Today Scholz’s foreign minister publicly instructed him../1 spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
To make Germany’s ‘new China policy’ clear, insisting on fair trade/business conditions, human rights and international norms. Just as Europe is weaning itself off energy dependency on Russia, critics worry Germany is continuing to prioritise lucrative trade with China over /2
Other concerns. Emmanuel Macron was incensed Scholz did not coordinate the China trip with big ally France. Macron has been pushing for years to become less beholden to China. Critics accuse Macron of protectionism but after A) headaches w global supply chains with covid & /3
Read 4 tweets
Oct 28, 2022
Norwegian energy giant Equinor has reported a spike in profits thanks to spiralling oil+gas prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Norway is now biggest energy exporter to UK + EU after the bloc drastically reduced imports from Russia /1
Norway is making huge profits and as of meeting with European Commission yesterday, is still resistent to idea of accepting a price cap on exports to EU in exchange for contracts bbc.com/news/world-eur… /2
Domestic energy prices are high for consumers in Norway. Local media report on factories stopping production and families putting on their washing-machine at 3am to benefit from lower energy costs that time of day /3
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Oct 28, 2022
Northern Ireland is on course for fresh elections, possibly set for Dec after no power sharing government was formed following the last poll in May. The Democratic Unionist Party refused to participate in protest, it said, over the Brexit agreement on NIreland (the Protocol) /1
But many in NIreland don’t believe new elections will solve the impasse. There’s fear a cycle of vote-impasse-vote could now follow. Parties have 24 weeks to form a power-sharing gov after an elex. UK+EU negotiations on finding solutions to problems w Protocol have re-started /2
Mood music is improved but big differences remain. DUP have called for fundamental re-write /ditching of Protocol - an international treaty signed by EU leaders and former PM Boris Johnson. The treaty keeps NIreland in some EU trading arrangements to avoid a hard customs border/3
Read 6 tweets

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