ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture
Sep 18, 2020 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
More NYT/Siena polls out today:

AZ: Biden +9
ME: Biden +17
ME02: Biden +2
NC: Biden +1

AZ is the big number for Biden. The ME02 is Trump's best. Keeps things pretty steady in our model though:

electoralpolls.com

Biden's at a 90% chance to win.
#Arizona is the one swing state where Biden's been consistently improving his position (thanks in no small part to Kelly's solid senate campaign):

electoralpolls.com/arizona

He's now up to his best position ever with a 76% chance to win the state and +4.5% in the polls.
That #ME02 number really dampens the recent @QuinnipiacPoll Biden +9 and pulls his chances down a bit in the district:

electoralpolls.com/maine_cd-2

He's now at a 67% chance to win it and +4% in the polls.

It'll be a necessary electoral vote if Biden tries to pull off a non-PA win.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with ElectoralPolls.com

ElectoralPolls.com Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @electoralpolls

Sep 21, 2020
Several new southern state polls from Tyson Group (some are a bit old though):

Alabama:
Trump 48% (+4)
Biden 44%

Florida:
Trump 44%
Biden 46% (+2)

Louisiana:
Trump 48% (+6)
Biden 42%

Mississippi:
Trump 50% (+10)
Biden 40%

Texas:
Trump 44%
Biden 48% (+4)
The #Alabama number is the most surprising to me. It marks nearly a 24% swing toward the Democrats from the 2016 results:

electoralpolls.com/alabama

Still, no other polls have shown this close a race there so we'll see if anything else comes close.
The #Louisiana number is also very surprising. Trump won it by 20 points last time. There have been 3 polls there this year:

Trump +6
Trump +16.4
Trump +7

electoralpolls.com/louisiana

Trump's still the heavy favorite to win (93% chance), but he's only up 8% in the average.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 13, 2020
A new National @foxnewspoll (A-) poll with Biden +5 (2 points closer than last month).

A few tidbits in the cross-tabs:

- Biden's +9 with 65+ voters
- Trump's +9 with 45-64 voters
- Undecideds / 3rd party is at 3%
- Trump's gained 3 points in his favorability (Biden's gained 1)
- Trump's job approval is +4 since last month
- 48% plan to vote early
- 64% support mail-in ballots
- But 43% aren't confident they'll be counted accurately
- Only 30% think we'll know the winner on election night
- 62% are comfortable with the result even if it takes days
Concerned about:
- Crime - 64%
- Unemployment - 87%
- COVID - 83%

- 70% think COVID is only somewhat or not at all under control
- Biden leads Trump on every measure except the economy (Trump +5)
- Outlooks on the economy are the most positive since Jan
Read 4 tweets
Sep 12, 2020
4 new polls in some less oft polled states from the A+ rated NYT/Siena.

The numbers do show a tight race (NV % NH particularly). And Biden's chances in our model drop 2.4% though, down to 89.6%:

electoralpolls.com
New Hampshire is the surprise one for me. Much closer than recent polling showed and drops Biden's chance a fair amount in our model:

electoralpolls.com/new_hampshire

He goes from an 84% chance to win down to a 70% chance. Changing the state from Likely Biden to Lean Biden.
The worst number for Trump here is #Minnesota in my opinion. The polls before this showed Biden +6.2%. This is significantly better and bumps him up to +6.8%

electoralpolls.com/minnesota

He's now up to a 94% chance to win the state.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 10, 2020
Digging into the crosstabs on today's 2 national polls:

Georgetown Univ - Biden +13
RMG Research - Biden +8

Two things stick out to me:

1) 65+ voters swung wildly toward the Dems
2) 18-34 voters are still very undecided (and were a big reason Trump the won swing states in '16)
Voters 65+

Trump won they be 7% in '16

In the Georgetown poll Biden's winning them by 6%
In the RMG poll, he's winning them by 3%

So that's between a 10-13 point swing towards the Dems.

Is Coronavirus the reason?

Romney won this group by 12%, so I don't think it's '16 sexism
Voters 18-34

They're by far the most undecided group.

In the Georgetown poll, 11% of them are undecided (compared to about 6% for other groups).

In the RMG poll, 22% are undecided (compared to about 12% for other groups)
...
Read 4 tweets
Aug 1, 2020
We've made a few small tweaks to the model:

1) Weight polls with multiple numbers properly (likely vs registered voters, etc)
2) Increased the testing range in simulations (especially further out from the election)

The old model had Biden at a 96% chance to win, he's now at 92%
electoralpolls.com

For problem #1, it was something we hadn't dealt with originally that we wanted to fix.

For problem #2, we just decided this election is probably more unpredictable than past ones and wanted to account for that unpredictability more.
And we know, changing a model midway through an election isn't always proper (and we understand why).

But we wanted to match the moment a little better and allow for bigger election result swings as voting this year will likely be very different (and sure to have some issues).
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29, 2020
@ChangePolls put out their bi-weekly swing state polls. Today's are much tighter than their last few (not this tight since mid June).

Things tick toward Trump in all the states (except NC). A Biden drops a point to a 95% chance to win overall.

electoralpolls.com/polls/
#Arizona poll
Trump: 45
Biden: 47 (+2)

Lowers Biden's polling lead from +4.1% to +3.8%. His chance to win the state drops from 74% to 70%.

electoralpolls.com/arizona
#Florida poll
Trump: 45
Biden: 48 (+3)

electoralpolls.com/florida

Continues a slide in FL for Biden. He was +7.1% 2 days ago, now he's down to +5.6%.

His chance to win the state falls from 94% (2 days ago) to 90% now.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(