Several new southern state polls from Tyson Group (some are a bit old though):

Alabama:
Trump 48% (+4)
Biden 44%

Florida:
Trump 44%
Biden 46% (+2)

Louisiana:
Trump 48% (+6)
Biden 42%

Mississippi:
Trump 50% (+10)
Biden 40%

Texas:
Trump 44%
Biden 48% (+4) The #Alabama number is the most surprising to me. It marks nearly a 24% swing toward the Democrats from the 2016 results:

electoralpolls.com/alabama

Still, no other polls have shown this close a race there so we'll see if anything else comes close.

A new National @foxnewspoll (A-) poll with Biden +5 (2 points closer than last month).

A few tidbits in the cross-tabs:

- Biden's +9 with 65+ voters
- Trump's +9 with 45-64 voters
- Undecideds / 3rd party is at 3%
- Trump's gained 3 points in his favorability (Biden's gained 1) - Trump's job approval is +4 since last month
- 48% plan to vote early
- 64% support mail-in ballots
- But 43% aren't confident they'll be counted accurately
- Only 30% think we'll know the winner on election night
- 62% are comfortable with the result even if it takes days

4 new polls in some less oft polled states from the A+ rated NYT/Siena.

The numbers do show a tight race (NV % NH particularly). And Biden's chances in our model drop 2.4% though, down to 89.6%:

electoralpolls.com

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304754901902340102

New Hampshire is the surprise one for me. Much closer than recent polling showed and drops Biden's chance a fair amount in our model:

electoralpolls.com/new_hampshire

He goes from an 84% chance to win down to a 70% chance. Changing the state from Likely Biden to Lean Biden.

Digging into the crosstabs on today's 2 national polls:

Georgetown Univ - Biden +13
RMG Research - Biden +8

Two things stick out to me:

1) 65+ voters swung wildly toward the Dems
2) 18-34 voters are still very undecided (and were a big reason Trump the won swing states in '16) Voters 65+

Trump won they be 7% in '16

In the Georgetown poll Biden's winning them by 6%
In the RMG poll, he's winning them by 3%

So that's between a 10-13 point swing towards the Dems.

Is Coronavirus the reason?

Romney won this group by 12%, so I don't think it's '16 sexism

We've made a few small tweaks to the model:

1) Weight polls with multiple numbers properly (likely vs registered voters, etc)
2) Increased the testing range in simulations (especially further out from the election)

The old model had Biden at a 96% chance to win, he's now at 92% electoralpolls.com

For problem #1, it was something we hadn't dealt with originally that we wanted to fix.

For problem #2, we just decided this election is probably more unpredictable than past ones and wanted to account for that unpredictability more.

@ChangePolls put out their bi-weekly swing state polls. Today's are much tighter than their last few (not this tight since mid June).

Things tick toward Trump in all the states (except NC). A Biden drops a point to a 95% chance to win overall.

electoralpolls.com/polls/ #Arizona poll
Trump: 45
Biden: 47 (+2)

Lowers Biden's polling lead from +4.1% to +3.8%. His chance to win the state drops from 74% to 70%.

electoralpolls.com/arizona

A whole slew of polls from @sprystrategies out this afternoon. Most of them are quite interesting to say the least.

Some highlights:

Trump +4.2 in Michigan
Biden +1.6 in Iowa
Trump +0.7 in Pennsylvania
Biden +4.8 in Arizona

Biden's chances overall drop 1.2% to 92.4% overall. By far the most outlier poll is Michigan (Trump +4.2). Before this Biden was up 7.7% in the Michigan polling average. This would be a 12.7% swing if it's right.

Biden's chances in Michigan drop from 92% to 85%

electoralpolls.com/michigan

Six new swing state polls from @ChangePolls today:

AZ
Trump 45%
Biden 51% (+6)

FL
Trump 43%
Biden 50% (+7)

MI:
Trump 42%
Biden 48% (+6)

NC:
Trump 46%
Biden 47% (+1)

PA:
Trump 42%
Biden 50% (+8)

WI:
Trump 42%
Biden 48% (+6)

electoralpolls.com Biden is up to a 93.4% chance of winning (up 0.9% since yesterday). And is in a significantly better place at this point than Clinton was in 2016 (where she had a 68% chance of winning).

New feature on the model! You can now test nation wide polling swings of up to 8% more Republican or Democratic.

electoralpolls.com

As an example, currently Biden is at 91% chance to win and 369 electoral votes (if the polls are right), but... ...if you swing the polls R+5 (we add 2.5% to Trump, subtract 2.5% from Biden) it becomes a true toss up: Biden is at a 52% chance to win, with 305 electoral votes.

If you swing the polls D+5, Biden is at 99% chance of winning, with 432 electoral votes.

Six new battleground polls from @ChangePolls out today. Biden's safely ahead in all of them and has improved since their last polls (6/17) in every state (except FL). Biden's chance of winning are now at 92.7%:

electoralpolls.com/polls/ Biggest jump is in NC where Biden gains +0.7% in the polling average (now Biden +2.6%) and 6% in his chances of winning (now at 62%):

electoralpolls.com/north_carolina