THREAD: More than 4,000 new #COVID19 cases in the UK in the past 24 hours. More than 14k in Spain.
These numbers are clearly making a lot of people scared.
But has anything changed since I said it's not yet time to panic?
Quick recap:
I've been making three points: 1. yes cases are rising, but so far nowhere as fast as in spring. 2. UK following v much in Spain & France's footsteps - so we get a sneak preview of where we're heading 3. News from France/Spain backs up point 1: #COVID not taking off like Spring
Has any of that changed? After all, we've had some big new numbers in this week.
And problems with the testing system prompted some to ask whether the case figures this is all based on can be trusted anyway - eg maybe #COVID19 is spreading far faster than the official UK figs.
Let's take that last point first. So far, there's nothing to suggest official case numbers on @DHSCgovuk dashboard are wildly out of whack.
How do we know?
Because @ONS does its own survey and the growth rates it's seeing are pretty similar to those on the dashboard
At the peak of the disease we were seeing 100k new #COVID19 cases a day (Imperial estimate).
Currently acc to @ONS it's about 6-7k cases a day.
In spring disease was doubling every 2-3 days.
Currently it's doubling every 10+ days.
And that's a BIG difference (see charts)
Is the UK's #COVID19 situation still in line with France & Spain? V much so. Here's the latest trajectories as of today. Note these are 7 day averages but they include today's 4,322 positive COVID tests in the UK.
All this implies we'll be up to 10k a day within a few weeks.
Are there any positives to be taken from what's happening in France & Spain? It's very early to say but so far the data suggest case growth rates may be diminishing. So far it's nothing like spring. @danielhowdon wrote a good piece about that here: cebm.net/covid-19/does-…
Still: more UK cases will mean more UK hospitalisations and more deaths.
Next few weeks/months will be nervy.
But the lesson from last time is follow the data, not the anecdotes or the headlines.
And so far the data is still saying: don't panic.
If that changes I'll flash the 🚨
Final point:
"This isn't as bad as spring" isn't the same as "this isn't anything" #COVID19 cases are rising. People are getting sick; some will die.
It is understandable why many are cautious & worried.
But the data so far suggests the outlook may not be as grim as you think
A video update on what the #COVID19 data is telling us. Gratifyingly short this time around I'm delighted to report:
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Britain's motoring lobby group the @SMMT has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in car exports to Azerbaijan has NOTHING to with Russia and is explained by the fact that this former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
This is rather... odd
🧵
Before we get onto that, some background (thread on this here👇).
TLDR: UK car exports to Russia have collapsed, because of sanctions. But UK car exports to countries neighbouring Russia have suddenly risen by nearly the same amount. Esp Azerbaijan
Following my original report we now have new figs on UK car exports.
They show flows to Azerbaijan have continued. £42m in Jan. 3rd highest EVER.
Now there's no way of being 100% sure what's going on here. you can't track consignments beyond Azerbaijan (if they ever reach Az)
🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
Let's start at the start.
Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
So when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not without significance that all Britain's major carmakers said they would stop sending their cars to Russia.
Anyway, shortly afterwards, the UK imposed sanctions which made it illegal to do so anyway...
There are two sanctions of note here.
First, UK companies cannot send "dual use" items to Russia which could be turned into weapons.
Second, there was a specific ban on the sale of any car over £42k👇
So it's pretty simple. No cars. Esp not luxury cars. legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/452/…
💷BUDGET THREAD💷
A few thoughts on what was supposed to be a big event but ended up feeling, well, a wee bit thin.
And that’s the first thing to say.
Strikingly, this Budget was HALF as big as the Autumn Statement. Look at the difference between the scorecard totals 👇
Was it a tax-cutting Budget?
I mean… not really.
Well, OK, the net impact is taxes aren’t going up as quickly as they were 6 months ago.
But (and I think this is pretty crucial) THEY’RE STILL GOING UP. The tax burden will be higher at the end of this Parliament than before.
Here’s a good illustration of that.
The bars here show you the impact, across the economy, of the decision a few Budgets ago to freeze tax allowances. The bars are in negative territory.
People are paying more in taxes as they get dragged into higher thresholds…
🧵Here's a thread about an obscure economic theory from a century and a half ago, which is about to become a MASSIVE deal.
⚡️It helps explains why tackling climate change is going to be v v hard. Some say impossible.
The story begins with this building👇
Yes it's the @SphereVegas.
Not just a massive entertainment venue but also the world's biggest screen. By all accounts it's an amazing spectacle both outside and in, where there's also a ginormous wraparound LED screen (also one of the biggest anywhere)
Get up close to that enormous exterior screen & it looks v different.
You see an array of little glowing pucks, each one decked with 48 light emitting diodes (LEDs). These act as the "pixels" of the image you see from miles around. These things are magic businessinsider.com/what-the-las-v…
🚨How British companies are bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine🚨
A depressing thread.
But an important one.
With some pretty shocking charts.
Let’s begin with the “official” picture. It suggests UK trade with Russia has collapsed since Feb 2022. Down by 74%…
Now let's fill in the data.
Look how we're no longer exporting cars or heavy machinery to Russia. Because the govt is well aware this stuff could be repurposed into weapons. So the official line is that this is a big success story.
Looks like Russia's economy is being starved
But clearly the Russian economy isn't doing as badly as all that. Indeed Russia is due to grow faster than any G7 nation this year 👇
And that's just the economy. Now look at the battlefield and Russia is looking v strong. No shortage of weapons/drones etc despite sanctions
Why?
With Tata steel having just confirmed the closure of the two blast furnaces at Port Talbot, here are a few important datapoints.
First, UK steelmaking has collapsed faster, over the past half century, than ANY other country in the world save for Venezuela.
Pretty shocking👇
The Tata plan is to replace the two blast furnaces with two electric arc furnaces.
There are some strong arguments - not all of which come back to net zero.
One is that Britain produces more than enough scrap steel to satisfy its needs. At the moment this is mostly exported
Electric arc furnaces exist to RECYCLE steel via a massive electric current.
UK has long been an outlier in having v few of them. Look: less, proportionally, than nearly any other country in the world.
Essentially we stuck with blast furnaces far longer than most other nations...