Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Sep 20, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
If I’m reading this correctly, nearly 0.5% of ALL ActBlue donations nationally since #RBG’s passing have gone through the fundraising pages I have set up. I’m honored to play a part in saving our democracy.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
(It says $72M as of 6pm; I was at around $330K at that time).
Yup...via NY Times, it was $80M by 7:30pm. I had raised $350K in that period. Image


Fascinating how consistent this has been:
AB total, 7:30pm Fri - Midnight Sat: $91M
Made thru my AB pages, 7:30pm Fri - Midnight Sat: $400K
As far as I can tell, donations made thru my AB pages have *consistently* made up between 4.3 - 4.8% of *all* AB donations since RBG's passing.

Assuming that ratio has been representative all along/remains so, it's a handy way of tracking how much ALL Dems have raised online.
Assuming this ratio holds steady for the rest of the election cycle, if you want to know how much money *all* Dems have raised via ActBlue each day, just multiply how much I've raised in that time period by around ~225x or so. Huh.
This was posted at 10:27 this morning. As of that time I had raised $462,000 since 7:30pm Friday evening. That's 0.46% (1/216th).
After the dust settles I think I'll see if I can get AB's prior ticker totals from each month to see if the correlation has stayed the same all year... #Nerd
Also worth noting (if unsurprising):

--75% of all donations made through my AB pages were to #FlipTheSenate ip until news broke of #RBG's passing,

--92% of all donations made through my AB pages *since* #RBG's passing have been to #FlipTheSenate.
When I started this just after the midterms, I figured the split would be something like 50% Senate, 25% House, 20% State Legislatures, 5% Executives.

Instead it's currently 78% Senate, 10% House, 10% State Legislatures, 2% Executives.

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More from @charles_gaba

Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 3
🧵📣 THE DEAD POOL: Since @JDVance wants to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about it. 1/

acasignups.net/24/10/02/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 67 tweets
Sep 18
OH DEAR GOD.

This LITERALLY DEFEATS THE ENTIRE CONCEPT OF HEALTH INSURANCE: SHARED RISK.
AGAIN: This graph is the single most important explainer of how risk pools work & the dangers of separating people out into risk pools based on their CURRENT health.

5% of the population racks up over 50% of total healthcare spending. Image
If you throw them under the bus, healthcare costs for the other 95% of the population drops in half, except for one small problem even IF you don't care about Grandma or Cousin Fred Who Was Just Diagnosed With Cancer:

You never know when YOU'RE gonna become Cousin Fred.
Read 14 tweets

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