THREAD: The latest @PHE_uk weekly surveillance report makes for sobering reading - here are some key things that have not yet been widely reported - inc care homes & inequality. Please read and share! (whole report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…) 1/9
Linked tweet shows that increases have been mainly in 20-29 & 30-39 ages but spreading to older groups.
BUT this shows that it's spreading most in most deprived areas - where people are in poorly paid work & housing & can't afford to isolate. 2/9
Meanwhile this graph shows *again* that those seriously ill with COVID (needing ICU) are disproportionately from BME communities. COVID loves inequality. 3/9
Hospitalisations are increasing in most places, but unsurprisingly mostly where infections are highest - the warning is that the more we let COVID spread, the more hospitalisations will follow (and, eventually, deaths). 4/9
Then there are institutional outbreaks: there were large jumps in 2nd week of September for care homes: 35 -> 228 COVID confirmed! We *can't* let this happen again! Schools and workplaces going up too... 5/9
Digging into the educational settings, we can see that outbreaks are mostly secondary schools but quite a few primary too. Expect college / university share to go up over the next few weeks! 6/9
Then onto contact tracing. Most common ways of getting COVID: from people you live with (#1); from people visiting you & you visiting them (#2&4); Leisure (inc pubs/restaurants) (#3). The things we like the most are also the most risky :-( but this explains restrictions 7/9
Then, there's a cold virus going around! This is partly why the testing system is under such strain since there are many overlap symptoms with COVID. BUT cold viruses always have a spike start of school year so we *should* have been prepared. 8/9
So to sum up, once again inequality is biting: deprived areas, BME communities & care homes are all feeling the impact. The difference this time is that we KNEW all of this from the first wave. It's unforgiveable if we just let it all happen again. 9/9
PS massive thanks to @cfinnecy for highlighting many of these things to me on Friday and suggesting I do a thread!
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THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3
Quick thread on the Astra Zeneca (AZ) covid vaccine since it's been in the news today.
TLDR there isn't a new "smoking gun", the AZ vax was one of first and cheapest, it saved millions of lives globally, there are better vax out there now, adapted to new variants 1/9
the AZ vaccine was one of the first approved at the end of 2020, cheaper than Pfizer, and - importantly - easier to administer in lower resource settings as it didn't require super low temperatures for storage 2/9
In most countries it was first rolled out in older adults. As it was rolled out in younger adults, a *very rare*, serious, side effect was noticed - it could cause deadly blood clots
This was spotted quickly and studied. Vax monitoring did its job. 3/9
A short thread on why this is not a scary chart and why all the evidence suggests that there is not much Covid around right now. 1/6
the above chart is recorded covid hospital admissions / reported covid cases. It is close to 100% now *because basically only hospitals can report cases since Feb 2024*
It is to do with changes in case reporting and NOT hospital testing
2/6
The UKHSA have now published their modelled estimates of what percentage of English population has Covid. And as of a week ago it's high (4.3%) and rising.
It's highest in London, South East and East & in young and middle aged adults.
The main thing is it's going up and fast, so prevalence will already by significantly higher now than it was last week. 3/7
Short thread on what I said on Channel 4 news tonight.
1. Did I find Hancock a sympathetic witness?
A: I find it hard to have sympathy for someone who repeatedly claimed to have thrown protective ring around care homes, while discharging covid+ patients into them.
1/5
There were *28,000* excess deaths in care homes Apr-May 2020.
Harries thought it was "clinically reasonable" not to treat covid +ve residents in hospital. Even it was, it was NOT reasonable to return them somewhere they could infect so many other very vulnerable people. 2/5
2. Did I think scientists bear blame for not emphasising asymptomatic transmission?
A: No, because they very clearly did advise there could be asymptomic transmission before March 2020 - sources in next tweet. 3/5