Thread by @ArmstrongDrew

Some good news: There are signs #Covid19 is getting less deadly for hospitalized patients as doctors gain experience and a handful of new drugs have come online
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

This is, to be clear, about *individual* risk. How many people get seriously ill or die at the country will still depend largely on the rate of spread. For that to go down, it's public health measures and a vaccine. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

That's because, as @FayCortez wrote here, it's very, very, very difficult to come up with *cures* for viruses. The best bets are supportive care, etc: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

“We have better and more rapid access to diagnosis. We have more knowledge about what drugs to use and what drugs not to use. We have more experimental treatments available. All of those contribute to possible improvements in the mortality rate.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Good reporting here from @LivRaiReports about the changing aspects of Covid care, which will have major implications for a fall surge.

The data on what's happening here aren't great. There's lots of look at per capita deaths, excess deaths, etc. Some of the better work involves risk-adjusted looks at hospital admits (which still has limitations).

Astudy of a NYC hospital system's #Covid19 hospitalizations in March-->June (n=4,689). In the first half of March, mortality rate for hospitalizations was 23%. By June, it was down to 8%. (Adjusted for factors like age, race, obesity + underlying illness) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

None of this means #Covid19 still isn't dangerous: “This does not mean that coronavirus is now a non-dangerous disease. It remains a very serious threat to public health.”

Docs outside of NY also learned from what happened here. Those places that are now getting hit have better knowledge: “We kind of had a play book before we even started seeing any patients in Texas.... We understand the things that work at this point with Covid much better.”

These gains are marginal, but they matter: “Even if these things aren’t cures, they help a small percentage do better.... You add several of those things up and you’ve got a better outcome overall.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…