Thread by @AndrewPEllison

I think almost everyone underestimates how much Eric Holcomb is collapsing with conservative Indiana voters due to his mask mandate because the Governor's race has received zero national coverage. I think the Libertarian nominee likely has double-digit support right now. (1/25)

As a refresher, Eric Holcomb represents the establishment, "moderate" wing of the Indiana GOP. He was Mitch Daniels' deputy chief of staff, Indiana GOP Chairman (2011-2013), and Dan Coats' state chief of staff. Holcomb is a consummate insider. (2/25)
indystar.com/story/news/pol…

When Coats announced his retirement in March 2015, Holcomb left to run for his Senate seat. The campaign never got off the ground, with no grassroots support and much of the GOP establishment backing Todd Young to stop Tea Partier Marlin Stutzman. (3/25)
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

In February 2016, Lt. Gov. Sue Ellsperman announced that she would resign to take another job. Pence needed a new LG quick, and this offered an escape hatch to Holcomb. He dropped from the Senate race on the day of the filing deadline and became LG. (4/25)
wfyi.org/news/articles/…

When Mike Pence left to be the VP nominee in mid-2016 (post-primary), the GOP suddenly needed a new gubernatorial candidate. Holcomb was privately nominated by the GOP State Central Committee by a 14-8 vote in 2016 over Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita. (5/25)
indystar.com/story/news/pol…

Holcomb lucked his way into the governorship. John Gregg led virtually every poll in the 2016 race, having a massive head start with name recognition and fundraising. Holcomb was dragged over the finish line by Trump's 56-37 landslide in Indiana. (6/25)
wfyi.org/news/articles/…

I say all of this to emphasize that Eric Holcomb has *never* won a contested Republican primary election in his career. He is a consummate insider who has depended on institutional support, presidential coattails, and a lack of primary competition to get where he is now. (7/25)

Going into 2020, Holcomb was headed for the biggest gubernatorial victory in a generation. He had a massive approval rating, over $8 million cash-on-hand, no GOP opponent, and Democratic opponents who had no name recognition and no campaign funds. (8/25)
southbendtribune.com/news/opinion/h…

When the COVID-19 outbreak began in March, Holcomb was more responsive to protective measures than most GOP governors and acted swiftly to slow the spread. He shut the state's economy down and encouraged everyone to stay home for two weeks. (9/25)
indystar.com/story/news/202…

Holcomb initially received high praise for his early handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Washington Post/Ipsos poll in May gave Holcomb a 76% COVID-19 approval rating; Holcomb's internal polling gave him a 79% COVID-19 approval rating. (10/25)
holcombforindiana.com/new-poll/

While Holcomb took early proactive measures to stop the spread, he merely encouraged the use of face masks and did not mandate them. When COVID-19 cases started spiking again in July, Holcomb reversed course and issued a mask mandate on July 22. (11/25)
indystar.com/story/news/hea…

On July 23, Attorney General Curtis Hill, who has very strong connections to the evangelical base of the Indiana GOP, stood against Holcomb and declared that he had no legal authority to issue an executive order to mandate masks. (12/25)
indystar.com/story/news/pol…

While Holcomb's original executive order penalized failure to wear a mask, it was quickly removed after pushback from GOP leaders. Rep. Jim Lucas, Sen. Mark Messmer, and Hamilton County Sheriff Dennis Quakenbush questioned Holcomb's authority. (13/25)
indystar.com/story/news/pol…

Since July, there has been a steady right-wing mutiny in Indiana against Holcomb's mask mandate and reopening plan. The mandate has not been applied evenly or with force, but even the notion of support for a mandate has been toxic to the GOP base. (14/25)
chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-t…

On September 17, the Indianapolis City Council GOP Caucus released a statement condemning the city's mask mandate and demanded its repeal. Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett has made stricter enforcements than the state, and Holcomb has supported them. (15/25)

https://twitter.com/IndyGOP/status/1306714173045461007

Because Holcomb has never won the support of the GOP's base and actively angered them with his mask mandate, many activists have been hyping Donald Rainwater, the Libertarian nominee for Governor, as the conservative alternative to Holcomb. (16/25)
rainwaterforindiana.com

Donald Rainwater, an Indianapolis native and US Navy veteran, has primarily campaigned as a right-libertarian populist opposed to Holcomb's shutdown and mask mandate. He is pro-cannabis, anti-tax, pro-gun, pro-life, and anti-standardized testing. (17/25)
courierpress.com/story/opinion/…

On September 17, State Rep. Jim Lucas (Indiana's Steve King) endorsed Donald Rainwater for Governor. "He has the same commitment to the Constitutional principles of limited government and individual liberties that I do and has earned my vote." (18/25)
indypolitics.org/lucas-endorses…

On September 18, Monica Boyer announced that she was also endorsing Rainwater. Boyer was a co-founder of Kosciusko Silent No More, a Tea Party group based in Warsaw. She's been active in conservative politics in northeast Indiana for over a decade and has a broad network. (19/25)

Boyer's support shouldn't be underestimated. She recruited Richard Mourdock to run for Senate in 2012 and practically ran his campaign in northeast Indiana. She was the force behind Curt Nisly's successful 2014 primary against Rep. Rebecca Kubacki. (20/25)
goshennews.com/news/kosciusko…

Micah Beckwith is a conservative Hamilton County pastor who ran for the 2020 GOP nomination for Indiana's 5th congressional district. He surprisingly got third place after party insiders wrote him off. On September 20, he endorsed Rainwater. (21/25)
wibc.com/blogs/rob-kend…

As frustration has mounted toward Holcomb, Rainwater's social media presence has exploded. As of September 21, Rainwater has 14K Facebook followers. For comparison, Holcomb has 55K followers, and Woody Myers (the Democrat) has under 10K followers. (22/25)
facebook.com/rainwater4indi…

In early September, @ChangePolls polled Indiana on behalf of @IndyPoliticsOrg and found Holcomb leading Myers by just 36-30, a dramatic collapse from his 45-25 lead in Change's April poll. What changed? Rainwater jumped from 8% to 24% support. (23/25)
indypolitics.org/polling-positi…

Change Research doesn't have a sterling reputation; 538 rates them as a C- pollster, and sometimes their results have been wonky, but the trends are notable. Holcomb went from a 47-28 favorable rating in April to a 35-46 rating in September, a terrible trend for Holcomb. (24/25)

While I'm unsure if Donald Rainwater is at 24% support for Indiana Governor, based on the shifting behavior of conservative activists and voters, there's serious movement away from Holcomb toward Rainwater. This is a competitive race that needs to be watched. (25/25)

@drdesante I figured you might have some interest in this subject, since it's your field of expertise!