Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
📣 Right after the 2018 midterms, I decided to see if I could raise $250,000 by Nov. 3, 2020 to help elect Democratic candidates up & down the ticket. Minutes ago the total broke 10x that amount...with 43 days left to spare.

Let's keep it going! (THREAD) 1/
📣 First, here's a new page as a "one-stop shop" for *federal* races: Help #FlipTheSenate (10 seats), #KeepTheBlueHouse (14 seats) & #ExpandTheBlueHouse (26 seats) while also gaining the state Congressional delegation advantage in one shot!
secure.actblue.com/donate/final_f… 2/
📣 Since the death of #RBG, 90% of donations thru my pages have been to #FlipTheSenate. While I strongly advise focusing more on the 10 races above, I also have this page which includes *every* GOP-held seat (plus Doug Jones & Gary Peters, who need help):
secure.actblue.com/donate/retakes…
Dems flipped the U.S. House in 2018. Now we have to KEEP control of it! These are the 40 most vulnerable House Dems. Again, I'd advise considering the ones in the first link in the thread first, but you can also donate to all 40 to #KeepTheHouseBlue: secure.actblue.com/donate/keepthe…
We flipped 40 House seats in 2018, but left *dozens* more on the table, coming up just little short! While the 26 swing districts in the first link in the thread are more obvious, you can also donate to all 60 races here to #ExpandTheBlueHouse today!
secure.actblue.com/donate/expandt…
There are *other* House races which are a much tougher grind, but with the right candidates, a lot of luck and your support (financial or otherwise), we could pull off a few surprises! Donate to help these Dems #CompeteEverywhere today! secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
As long as I'm at it, we should really #LeaveNoDemBehind! These candidates are running in the deepest red districts, but they shouldn't be abandoned. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/compete…
I'll spare you the other dozen pages to raise money for *state* legislative & executive races for now. /END
Update: Another $100K in exactly 10 hours.

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More from @charles_gaba

Nov 10
Here's an updated version of my "Dem Stop the Steal!" conspiracy theory thread which hopefully is less scattershot.

There's 3 main claims:

1. "How could there be 20M fewer voters than in 2020 w/"record-breaking turnout?"

2. "How could 15M fewer voter for Harris vs. Biden?"
3. "How could so many swing state voters vote for the Dem for Senate but not for Harris for POTUS?"

There's a few others, but these are the biggest ones, so let's tackle them first:
1. There weren't 20M fewer voters.

I've been compiling the data as it's being updated by CNN's tracking center via a Google spreadsheet. As of this writing, total POTUS turnout is ~147.6M, or ~10.8M lower than 2020's 158.4M.

cnn.com/election/2024/…

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 46 tweets
Nov 8
Yesterday I posted a thread digging into the actual data behind the "20M missing votes!" and "15M fewer than Biden!" conspiracy theories being tossed around the past few days.

I've updated my spreadsheet using the latest data from CNN:
cnn.com/election/2024/…Image
Short Version:

Via CNN, as of this writing, total 2024 POTUS votes are only down 13.9 million vs. 2020...with a likely 11.5 - 12.0 million ballots still to be counted across 30 states.

Total 2024 turnout will likely be ~156M or so...just a couple million fewer than 2020.
Again, using CNN's data & estimates, once every legitimate ballot has been counted, Trump will likely have around ~78 million votes to Harris' 75-76 million.

That'd mean he added ~4 million vs 2020 while she lost ~5-6 million.

Both of these would still suck, of course.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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